Rational Suggestions on Realizing Long-term Stable and Rapid Economic Development in China

First, the steady and rapid development of the national economy depends on handling various relations in economic work and doing practical things. To maintain the steady and rapid growth of the national economy, we must unswervingly implement the central macro-control policies and strive to maintain the steady and rapid development of the national economy in accordance with the requirements of Scientific Outlook on Development. We should conscientiously implement Scientific Outlook on Development, strengthen macro-control, clarify leadership work, motivate cadres and the masses, unite as one and work hard. All localities and departments should further unify their thoughts and actions with the central authorities' correct judgment on the economic situation, with the establishment and implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development's requirements, with the central authorities' policies and measures to strengthen and improve macro-control, comprehensively, correctly and actively implement the central authorities' decision-making arrangements, and do all the work unremittingly. It is necessary to prevent blind investment and low-level redundant construction, support projects that meet the national industrial policies and market access conditions, provide normal working capital loans to enterprises with market, benefits and employment in a timely manner, and strive to alleviate the tight supply and demand situation of coal, electricity and oil transportation. Efforts should be made to speed up structural adjustment, deepen structural reform and change the mode of economic growth. Strengthen the weak links in economic and social development, strive to expand consumer demand, and pay attention to improving people's lives, especially ensuring the basic livelihood of people in need. Actively and steadily promote urban construction, pay attention to saving land and control the scale of demolition. Pay more attention to environmental protection and ecological construction. Adhere to the market mechanism and economic and legal means to solve problems in economic life and promote the sustained, rapid, coordinated and healthy development of the national economy. Earnestly study and implement the State Council's decision on investment system reform, according to the requirements of perfecting the socialist market economic system, under the national macro-control, give full play to the basic role of the market in resource allocation, establish the dominant position of enterprises in investment activities, standardize government investment behavior, protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, create a market environment conducive to fair and orderly competition among all types of investors, establish a new investment system, promote the rational flow and effective allocation of production factors, optimize the investment structure, rationally distribute industries and improve investment efficiency. Production enterprises should do a good job in technology upgrading, product development and marketing, improve output efficiency, vigorously develop core technologies, enhance the market value of independent brands, and promote coordinated economic development and overall social progress. At the same time, it is necessary to formulate and make good use of various national investment policies, monetary policies, fiscal policies, tax policies, price policies and wage policies in a timely manner to ensure the coordinated, orderly and stable development of the national economy. Second, adjusting the economic structure is the guarantee to maintain the sustainable development of the national economy. The adjustment of economic structure refers to the process that the state uses economic, legal and necessary administrative means to change the existing economic structure, make it more reasonable and perfect, and further adapt to the development of productive forces. Economic structure refers to the composition and structure of the national economy, including industrial structure (such as the composition of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, agriculture, light industry, heavy industry, service industry and so on). ), distribution structure (such as the proportion of accumulation and consumption and its internal structure, etc. ), exchange structure (such as price structure, import and export structure, etc. ), consumption structure, technology structure, labor structure, etc. Economic structure has multiple meanings: (1) Judging from the sum of certain social production relations, it is mainly manifested in the proportion and composition of different economic components of ownership of means of production. (2) From the perspective of the composition and structure of national economy and social reproduction departments, including industrial structure (such as the composition of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, agriculture, light industry and heavy industry, etc.). ), distribution structure (such as the proportion of accumulation and consumption and its internal structure, etc. ), exchange structure (such as price structure, import and export structure, etc. ), consumption structure, technology structure, labor structure, etc. (3) From the scope of investigation, it can be divided into the overall structure of national economy, departmental structure, regional structure, industrial structure and enterprise structure. (4) The special research can be divided into economic organization structure, product structure, industrial structure, personnel structure, employment structure, investment structure, energy structure and material structure from different angles. The core problems that structural adjustment should focus on are as follows: First, we should adjust the structure based on expanding consumption. On the premise of properly handling the relationship between expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand, increasing investment and expanding consumption, we will focus on expanding consumer demand and strive to achieve coordinated consumption, investment and export to stimulate economic growth. To this end, we must speed up the adjustment of the national income distribution structure and enhance the consumption power of residents, especially low-income people. It is necessary to maintain policy continuity, further improve the work of household appliances, automobiles and motorcycles going to the countryside, continue to implement the old-for-new policy of household appliances and automobiles, increase subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery and tools, increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, support residents' demand for self-occupation and improved housing purchase, and increase support for the renovation of dilapidated houses in rural areas. It is necessary to adapt to the diversified and personalized needs of people's lives and guide the upgrading of consumption structure. Second, accelerate the independent innovation committed to structural adjustment. To promote independent innovation is to find the fulcrum to adjust the economic structure. How to take scientific and technological support as an important part of the package plan, greatly increase scientific and technological investment, promote technological transformation, speed up the implementation of major scientific and technological projects, and vigorously cultivate emerging strategic industries are all important links related to the success or failure of economic restructuring. Third, realize the nationwide industrial structure upgrading and "industrial drift" as soon as possible. Through overall planning, developed areas and underdeveloped areas develop together. Developed areas can provide technical support and project expansion for underdeveloped areas; Underdeveloped areas can provide broad market and development support for developed areas. Through the upgrading of industrial structure and "industrial drift", we can take the opportunity to eliminate some enterprises with low added value, high energy consumption and high pollution, and at the same time strengthen the investment in science and technology of enterprises to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, which can not only smoothly realize economic restructuring, but also promote the development of underdeveloped areas. The obvious imbalance between China's existing economic structure and industrial structure is reflected in the following aspects: First, the imbalance of industrial structure. The heavy industrialization of industrial structure leads to high consumption of resources and energy, high emission of greenhouse gases and high environmental pollution. Second, the proportion of domestic demand and external demand is unbalanced. Under the current economic structure of China, external demand is growing rapidly and domestic demand is shrinking; In domestic demand, it mainly depends on investment, which leads to the shrinking of consumption. As far as a large economic system is concerned, if the economic development model is unsustainable, under certain conditions, many problems will be induced, such as changes in external conditions. Once external consumption cannot be provided, economic development will be very difficult. There are four factors supporting this mode of production: capital, land (natural resources), labor force, management and technological innovation. High capital investment, low labor price, low resource price and insufficient technological innovation will all affect the sustainable development of the economy. Now it's not a question of transformation, but a question of transformation. Now we are very passive. After the financial crisis, the pressure on the export sector increased, trade protectionism prevailed, and trade frictions occurred from time to time. The ability of European and American markets to absorb products made in China has declined, and it is difficult for exports to return to the level before the financial crisis, so the economy must turn to domestic demand, which is passive. Third, the imbalance between investment and consumption seriously affects the endogenous power of the economy. Investment and consumption have attracted people's attention in the era of planned economy. This question was raised during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. At that time, many measures were taken to try to solve it, but they were not thorough. This situation has deteriorated in recent years. The heavy industrialization of the economy will inevitably lead to high investment and squeezed consumption. From the perspective of savings rate, among governments, enterprises and residents, the savings rate of governments and enterprises is growing much faster than that of residents, while the savings of governments and enterprises are on the rise, while the savings of residents are on the decline, which is the source of high investment, and high savings can bring high investment and high exports. Fourth, the national income distribution structure is distorted, the income gap between different classes is widened, and the social consumption tendency is reduced. The relatively slow growth of residents' income directly leads to insufficient consumer demand. The imbalance of economic structure restricts the steady and rapid development of the national economy, so these structural imbalances must be reversed. There are three main obstacles to economic transformation: First, the special stage of China's economic development. China is a developing country and a transitional country, and now the developed countries have also gone through this stage of development. The experience of developed countries shows that it is difficult for a country to surpass the stage of heavy chemical industry. At this stage of development, there is a remarkable feature that the economy emphasizes industrialization, and the "three high and one capital" industries are in a dominant position, which we cannot avoid. The characteristic of China is that compared with other countries with the same level of development, our urbanization and marketization are underdeveloped, the service industry is seriously lagging behind, and the proportion of heavy chemical industry is abnormally high. Second, there are problems in the system. Actually, this has already existed. In domestic demand, the proportion of investment is too high, the proportion of consumption is too low, and the proportion of consumption is in a position of continuous decline, which belongs to a typical investment-driven economic growth model. In terms of the relationship between internal and external demand, China is an export-oriented economic model, and it is obviously unsustainable for a big country's economy to rely too much on external demand. After the financial crisis, it is difficult for China to reproduce the high-speed export growth before the crisis, which forces us to strengthen the construction of domestic system and credit system and guide the products of export departments to domestic demand. Third, policy issues. China has always encouraged export and processing industries. Although this has solved the employment of surplus labor force to a certain extent and increased the income of employees, it also has many negative effects. Our country's encouragement to the export sector is actually based on relatively low resource prices and labor prices, and there has been a phenomenon of exporting for export, which objectively caused the abnormal economic structure encouraged by the government. Third, how to control inflation and its expectation in order to maintain the steady and rapid development of the national economy. First of all, analyze the types of inflation, including demand-driven, cost-driven, international input and mixed. For demand-driven inflation, macro-tightening policy is effective, while for cost-driven inflation and international imported inflation, the effect of tightening policy is not so obvious. Therefore, the government should take comprehensive measures, not just rely on simple macro-austerity policies. The "one size fits all" austerity policy is not only not conducive to stabilizing the price level, but also may slow down the macroeconomic development and lead to "stagflation". To deal with inflation, especially to prevent the occurrence of stagflation, we cannot adopt macro-tightening policies alone, but must adopt comprehensive control measures: First, we must shift from the total control of monetary policy to the equal emphasis on total control and structural control. China has played an important role in dealing with inflation by adjusting the deposit reserve ratio, adjusting the interest rate policy and regulating the credit scale, but it also has great limitations. The structure of monetary policy will be more suitable for China's current national conditions. Second, the shift from moderately loose monetary policy to tight monetary policy should be carried out in stages to avoid sharp turns. It may be more effective to adopt "close coordination" between monetary policy and fiscal policy. Inflation expectations can be changed and inflation is likely to become a reality. In this situation, it is very important to stabilize the inflation expectation of society. The government's recent response is to take structural measures to increase the supply of goods in short supply in the market. Increasing supply is an urgent measure to stabilize prices. When the domestic output of some raw materials and consumer goods cannot increase more supply in a short time, foreign exchange reserves can be used to import some goods that are in short supply at home. As long as the supply increases, the inflation expectations of enterprises and individual residents will stabilize. In addition, the measures taken by the government to combat commodity speculation can also play a certain role. Suppressing abnormal demand and orderly increasing supply should be carried out at the same time, and orderly increasing supply is relatively more important. However, in reality, it is not difficult to control inflation. What is difficult is how to keep the economy growing steadily and rapidly while restraining the price increase. Stimulate the growth of consumer demand, while curbing the excessive growth of investment. In this case, it is difficult for monetary policy, which is mainly used as aggregate regulation, to play an effective role alone. Fiscal policy and industrial policy must be closely coordinated, and regulatory policies should be "moderate". First of all, the function of proactive fiscal policy should shift from anti-economic cycle to promoting coordinated economic and social development. 1 100 billion national debt construction projects focus on "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", social development, western development and revitalization of old industrial bases in Northeast China, ecological construction and environmental protection, as well as expanding employment, improving social security and improving the lives of people in need. Secondly, with the functional transformation of proactive fiscal policy, the role and importance of monetary policy will rise accordingly, and fiscal policy will no longer be the main force of macro-control. Under the background of the change of the dominant position of monetary policy and fiscal policy, in order to ensure the new round of steady economic growth, the central bank should take pre-adjustment and fine-tuning measures according to the changes of economic situation, reasonably regulate the growth of money supply, maintain the steady growth of total credit, guide and control the credit scale of industries with excessive investment through the monetary policy window, timely convey the intention of monetary and credit policy, and guide social investment expectations; When necessary, slightly increase the loan interest rate to curb the excessive growth of investment. Third, give full play to the role of industrial policy and investment policy, and strive to curb the excessive growth of investment and increase effective supply. First, implement the strictest land protection system and strengthen land use approval and supervision. The second is to mobilize farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and increase the planting area of grain and oil. Using the international market to adjust the domestic grain and oil supply and demand. Third, vigorously strengthen the construction of basic industries and infrastructure such as transportation and energy, and the construction of energy transportation projects should be moderately advanced. Fourth, accelerate the pace of investment system reform, directly delegate investment rights to enterprises, and strengthen the role of market mechanism in guiding investment; The state regulates the investment direction of enterprises through economic and legal means, supplemented by necessary administrative means.