Car companies have resumed work in a large area: dealers have started less than 30%.

0 1. What is the significance of starting work?

After a delay of seven days, on February 10, many car companies began to return to work.

Without the groundbreaking ceremony in previous years, the factory was particularly quiet, and only workers wearing masks hurried by.

When you enter the factory, you often have to go through several tests. Some car companies are equipped with infrared thermal imaging temperature measurement systems in the periphery for initial screening; Then after two manual temperature measurements, you can enter the workshop.

There are two kinds of commuting for employees of car companies: one is the shuttle bus within the company; Second, private cars drive themselves to work. Reduce contact with external public transport, and reduce the probability of cross-infection compared with other types of companies.

I haven't seen my colleagues for half a month. On the first day of the New Year, I greet them when I see them from a distance. The only disappointment is that male colleagues did not become F4, and female colleagues did not become singers in Liu Huan or Tengger singer regardless of whether they tied their hair.

It is time for lunch at noon. Find out the rush hour first and stagger the time period before going. In the canteen, colleagues consciously choose tables with few people to eat in the college entrance examination.

On February 10, most automobile factories except Hubei generally or partially resumed work. Most of the factories in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and other automobile towns have gradually started to operate.

Generally speaking, automobile automakers generally have inventory, and short-term production suspension will not have a great impact on terminal supply. The shutdown in the past seven days can be completely compensated by adjusting the supply chain.

However, if the time is too long, it may have a greater impact on the operation from suppliers to terminal distributors, resulting in damage to the entire chain. For example, a weak link in a chain may be difficult to operate or even close.

Although in the unpredictable period of time in the future, the sales in the terminal market may still be blocked. According to the statistics of automobile dealers association, in February 10, the operating rate of dealers was less than 30%. However, the start-up of the main engine factory at least maintained the operation of the company's system and drove the whole chain into a state of preparation.

Once the epidemic is over, car companies can operate quickly, and the front and rear ends can cooperate quickly to seize the possible "small outbreak" of private car consumption.

In particular, some car companies with good market conditions must provide sufficient products for the terminal market and return to work more actively. For example, Tesla, Guangqi Honda and other car companies achieved rapid growth in sales last year, with no inventory or little inventory. Starting work early can relieve the pressure of supply and demand.

Before the end of the epidemic, it is certain that the sales volume in the terminal market will drop sharply, some car companies may withdraw from the market or be hit hard, and the market reshuffle will be thoroughly carried out.

For car companies with strong system capabilities, the epidemic may "turn into a crisis." Whether you are fully prepared to catch up with the subsequent "small explosion" of private car consumption will determine the performance and competition pattern of car companies this year.

Car companies may be particularly idle in the first half of the year and particularly busy in the second half. The time node will be determined according to the epidemic situation. The latest good news is that there may be an inflection point in the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases outside Hubei Province has decreased for six consecutive days.

02. Can't you afford to stop production?

A medium-sized automobile factory with about 20,000-30,000 employees; A car enterprise group with the top ten sales volume has about1-200,000 employees; According to the data of research institutions, there are about 30.787 million employees in China automobile industry and directly related industries.

This means that if we don't start work, we will raise 30 million people, and there is no operation in the whole industry. As far as the car companies themselves are concerned, they have to pay tens of thousands of people. This is a huge expense, which most companies can't afford in the long run.

Vehicle enterprises are the core link of the whole industrial chain. The failure of the automobile factory to return to work will not only affect the employees of the enterprise, but also affect the entire industrial chain.

The automobile industry has a long vertical chain and a wide horizontal spread. For example, the closure of parts factories in China led to the suspension of production of many Hyundai and Kia automakers.

Most of Hyundai Motor Group's factories in South Korea will be completely shut down from February 7, and some production lines are expected to restart on February 1 1 or February 12. The reason is that factories of Kyungshin and Yura, the main wire harness manufacturers of Hyundai and Kia, stopped production in China.

Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors often import more parts from China than other global automakers, so the impact is relatively more serious. Hyundai Motor has seven factories in South Korea to meet the needs of local and international markets in South Korea, and its domestic production accounts for about 40% of the global production.

At present, Kyungshin and Yura are working hard to increase the output of factories in South Korea and Southeast Asia to make up for the interruption of parts supply from China. After 9 February, the two suppliers resumed production in their factories in China.

This influence has also spread to Europe. FCA said that if parts from China do not arrive in the next 2-4 weeks, the company may be forced to close a European assembly plant.

But in general, the biggest impact is the automobile giants with huge domestic production capacity and sales volume. Nearly 40% of Volkswagen's cars are produced and sold in China. In 20 19, the sales volume of Volkswagen Group in China reached 4,233,600 vehicles, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year.

According to his? According to the report released by Markit, factories in China 1 1 provinces (Hubei, Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Yunnan, Fujian, Jiangxi and Shandong) account for two-thirds of China's automobile production. If these factories are started after February 10, it is estimated that 7% of the production capacity will be lost in the first quarter, that is, 350,000 vehicles. ?

If the epidemic has not been controlled in mid-March, factories in other provinces will also be shut down, and the capacity loss in the first quarter will reach more than 6.5438+0.7 million vehicles.

Volkswagen's market share in China has reached 65,438+09.7%. In the second case, according to a rough estimate of market share, Volkswagen may cut production in China in the first quarter, which will be the most affected automobile company in the world.

There are great differences on the expectation of China automobile market in 2020. Lang Hongxue, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association, predicted that the automobile sales in China in 2020 would be 22.5 million, down10% year-on-year; The judgment of Wilson, a market research institution, is a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; The expectation of the China Automobile Association is a drop of 2%; Foreign analysts have a more optimistic expectation, which is growth 1%-2%.

From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the compromise is expected to drop by 2%-3%. However, after the outbreak of the Spring Festival epidemic, the annual forecast depends on the development trend of the epidemic. If the epidemic is controlled in the first quarter, the annual decline may be around 5%. If the epidemic continues for more than half a year, the annual decline may reach more than 8%.

From an economic point of view, it is better for car companies to return to work than not to return to work. However, the core problem is that the development of the epidemic has led to a downturn in the market and the scheduling is full of uncertainty. Most car companies can only use part of their production capacity. Productivity benefits have benefits and risks, and epidemic prevention may fail.

However, the journey is made up of one adventure after another. Don't be afraid of risks, move forward firmly, and spring will surely come.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.