How will the international situation evolve when there is a war between Russia and Ukraine?

When something is destined to happen, it will happen. "When something is destined to happen, it will happen." . This is not correct nonsense, but a reset of causality.

The change of the international situation will lead to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is causal: not the Russian-Ukrainian war will lead to the evolution of the national situation, but the evolution of the international situation will lead to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Ukrainians and Russians have been getting along since the ninth century, and naturally there is a set of suitable rules. They have been fighting and killing for nearly a thousand years, and no one can destroy them. They have been on and off for nearly a thousand years, and no one can live without anyone.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia became an independent "Russian Federation" and Ukraine became an independent country. However, the current international situation is in urgent need of a contest between them, so they may fight a lose-lose war under the ever-changing situation.

This is actually similar to the outbreak of World War II, and the reason behind it is that the greed of those decisive forces in the world has intensified the international situation and led to the outbreak of war.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to fight.

Russia really doesn't want to fight Ukraine, although it is extremely angry. Ukraine abolished the nuclear weapons left by the Soviet Union as soon as it became independent. In fact, there are also Russian forces in it, and the right to use these nuclear weapons is in Russia. Ukraine is a big buffer zone between Russia and Europe, where nuclear weapons have great strategic interests for Russia.

Ukraine, encouraged by the United States and the West, said it would be abolished if it was abolished. Can Russia not be angry? The problem is that Russia is not good at opposing. On the one hand, the thing of waste nuclear is especially sacred by the west and has its own supreme aura; On the other hand, the newly established Russian Federation is a chicken feather, and they are counting on the West to help him. How dare they offend the west for these things?

Ukraine wants to join NATO after abolishing nuclear weapons, which is a bit bullying. It's like a confrontation between two armies. All the emplacements in your forward position have been removed, and the enemy is arranging troops here in the name of "peace". Does it make sense? Despite this, Russia still cannot and does not want to fight Ukraine.

Because Russia has to consider its own domestic stability. After all, Ukraine and Russia have been together for thousands of years and all ethnic groups are inextricably linked; There are many ethnic groups in Russia. After Ukraine, other ethnic groups feel the same way.

On the other hand, Ukraine involves too many Russian interests, including the security of energy corridors, the existence of the Black Sea Fleet and the smooth connection between Russia and the Middle East.

Russia also has a great desire: to connect Europe and Asia, which is related to Russia's future development. "Connecting Europe and Asia, stabilizing the East and advancing westward" has been a policy pursued by Russia since Peter the Great. In their view, this strategy is the standard for them to become a big country, just like Japan's ambition of "what to do first".

Russia doesn't want to fight, and Ukraine doesn't dare to make things out of control, although it is secretly angry to death. Ukraine doesn't want to fight mainly because it can't. This is a physical gap, there is no way.

The reason why Ukraine is in full swing now is that on the one hand, domestic nationalists are clamoring and don't know where to get financial support; On the other hand, the Ukrainian government also wants to take advantage of this situation to maximize its geographical advantages and gain more benefits from Russia to prevent similar incidents in Crimea from happening again in the three eastern States.

Real fighting will lead to further changes in the international situation.

The world is a global village, and no matter where there is a war, it will cause changes in the world situation; If a big country goes to war with other countries, the changes in the world situation will be very drastic and destructive. If the situation changes, with the war between Russia and Ukraine, the international situation will probably change as follows.

1, there will definitely be no nuclear war.

First of all, this war will never be a nuclear war, because Ukraine abandoned its nuclear program at that time and obtained nuclear security guarantees including the five permanent members of the United Nations. In this regard, Russia will not make mistakes. In addition, Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. After all, it was a family before.

The United States will never join, and it will continue to provide arms to Ukraine; Europe will not join because it is not good for them. They really don't want to see this war, but there is no way.

NATO will take this opportunity to increase its eastward expansion, and it is not excluded that they will take the opportunity to pull Ukraine into NATO.

2. Russia's economy will be seriously injured, and Ukraine may lose its eastern territory.

In conventional power, Russia has an absolute advantage, so after the battle, Ukraine will lose three eastern States, at least these three States will go out independently, similar to Crimea.

However, Russia's economy will also be hit hard. In the early stage, due to the Crimean issue, the comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States led to economic decline and stagnant development. If there is another war here, they will be punished more severely.

When Ukraine abandons its nuclear program, there is another important requirement: to ensure its territorial integrity. Regardless of the current situation, Ukraine's territorial integrity has been violated. At this point, Russia cannot make it clear in the world.

3. Europe's economy is injured, capital flows out, and the coordination mechanism within the EU is out of order.

If war breaks out, all Europe except Britain will be pessimistic about it. Ukraine and Russia are both European countries. When they have a war, Europe is of course the most injured.

As a huge economy, Europe can challenge America. Europe's energy is heavily dependent on imports, and Russia's oil and gas is an important channel, which will be blocked if there is a war.

It has always been the strategy of the United States to contain Europe with energy problems; Europe once wanted to import energy directly from the Middle East. They provoked the Yugoslav issue in order to open the passage to the Middle East. I didn't expect the United States to make a mountain out of a molehill. Europe did not control this energy channel, and the euro was greatly hurt by the war.

The United States can make arrangements calmly.

If Russia and Ukraine go to war, NATO controlled by the United States will become more important and powerful, the euro will be hurt, the dollar will strengthen, the United States will have more means in international negotiations, and the production and sales of world oil will be more dependent on the United States.

The United States has been trying to suppress the euro and make the dollar stronger. This is the opportunity; France has always wanted to defend itself, so don't even think about it at this moment; Germany is playing an increasingly important role in Europe, but this war will bring Germany and the United States closer. In short, the United States has played a lot of cards out of thin air, and they can arrange them calmly.

The tit-for-tat situation between Russia and America will continue.

In order to cope with the situation, Putin either announced that he would not participate in the next election, which is what the United States hopes; Or they will announce their continued election, which the United States does not want to see.

Russia amended its constitution to allow Putin to stand for election, and the United States said: If Putin stands for election, even if he is elected, the United States will not recognize it. Naked intervention has begun.

Strike and split Russia, prevent Russia from integrating into Europe, prevent Europe from becoming strong, and keep NATO led by the United States to continue to influence the situation in Europe and cooperate with the global strategy of the United States. This is what Americans think.

6. This battle will form a pattern.

For those imminent crises, this war will be a "case", which will profoundly affect the geostrategy around the world, and Americans think far ahead. I dare not say more about this. There are many such things in East Asia.

When Russia is mired in the quagmire of war, the Middle East and Northeast European countries that rely on Russia will lose their dependence. Syria, Iran and so on. Is the goal of the United States. Why should we clean them up? We'll talk later.

In short, we are all kind people and always think too well of others. When problems arise, we often ask ourselves: Did I really do something wrong? In fact, it is not that we are wrong, but that those bird countries in the West are too "greedy".

One of our diplomats once criticized the United States in person: We think too much of you.