The simplest and feasible way for ordinary people to fight inflation is to buy shops along the street in residential areas.

Ren Zeping said that there are three kinds of hard currency to fight inflation in the future: ① houses and land in metropolitan areas where people flow in; 2 supply scarce precious metals; ③ Leading companies in large circuits.

His inference is actually based on the previous experience of 10 for 20 years. Can only say that it is quite satisfactory. These three hard currencies are actually the best assets that have risen in the past decade. Will they continue in the next ten years? Although it will rise with a high probability, can we extract the essence from these three? I thought of one, that is, shops along the street in urban residential areas.

Key points: The core advantages of such store assets are more stability, less risk and not necessarily the highest returns. Why? Let me slowly analyze the reasons.

Let's analyze the three hard currencies mentioned by Ren Zeping one by one.

Let's talk about the second one: the supply of scarce precious metals. If he means speculating in futures, most people can't do it. If we buy gold products from banks, on the one hand, the fees charged by buying gold banks are ridiculously high, on the other hand, the increase of gold in the past decade is much lower than that of real estate, and the risk of gold falling is higher than that of real estate.

Let's talk about the third type first: the leading company of the big track. This is about stocks. Driven by the appreciation of RMB and other factors, I believe that A shares will have a larger increase. But in the final analysis, this is still a stock, and everyone knows that the stock market is risky.

Finally, there is the first type: metropolitan areas, houses and land where people flow in. The store I mentioned is actually extracted from this first category. Land is the most likely to rise in the future, but this is not something that ordinary people can play with.

Then there is only one thing that ordinary people can invest in: houses in metropolitan areas where people flow in. Why do I recommend shops instead of houses? Although the growth rate of school districts is indeed higher than that of shops in the previous decade, I think shops will be more stable in the future. Because there are policy risks in real estate, no one knows whether there is a bubble in China real estate market. The price of shops is basically determined by the market, and there is no bubble. Of course, shops do not represent all shops. See what kind of shops are worth investing in.

Let's start with the conclusion: first of all, it must be the shops along the street in residential areas, plus some other factors, such as the combination of residential areas, shopping malls and hospitals. As for cities, I recommend Ningbo, Jiaxing and Dongguan.

The focus of the above conclusions is "along the street". Many experts don't recommend buying shops, thinking that shops are risky. This statement itself is not wrong, because in recent years, many shops in commercial bodies are risky, such as sweater market, leather market, building materials market and fruit market. The shops in the fruit market are probably the craziest. The clothing and leather goods market once rose very well, but it collapsed in the past two years, because the shops in this market are really valuable when the market is good, but they are worthless once the market is bad. Moreover, the shops along the street in the mature community I mentioned basically have no risk of closing down, plus some understandable factors to increase popularity, such as the appreciation of shops in the famous brand area, Wanda, hospitals and other combined areas, which is still very objective.

Tell me specifically how much such a store can add value every year. I bought a shop in the community opposite wanda plaza on 16. At the time of purchase, the price was 10 1, and now it may have risen to 30,000. The exact price is not clear, because no one sells it now, but it must be at least 25 thousand. What is the annual rent? According to the purchase price, this is the actual value-added situation of this store. Of course, these two years are not normal.

Let's calculate the normal guaranteed increase of such shops: First, the rent is about 5% (why is it 5%? Here's how individuals estimate the value of assets: rent divided by 4%-5%. Because the annual rents of shops and factories are basically between 4% and 5% of the total real estate price, the higher the total asset price, the more accurate this ratio is. Why is it between 4% and 5%? I personally understand that this figure is actually slightly higher than the bank interest, because if the rent of an asset is lower than the interest, the asset holder will consider selling the asset and depositing it in the bank. For example, the annual rent of a square is 1000 yuan, then the minimum value of this square should be:1000/4% = 25,000 yuan. Shops at this price can basically start. What's better? There are other mature communities around the newly-built shops, and the rents of shops in this area are actually known. For example, the annual rent in the surrounding area is 1000 yuan, and the price of shops in this newly developed community may be only 1000 yuan. Of course, this situation is difficult to encounter, but it does exist. And the rent of the house is much lower than 4%. Then the value-added of the store itself is 8%, and 5% plus 8% is 13%, so the guaranteed growth rate of this store is 13%. If it is bought by a loan, then the leverage of the loan is higher. Friends who make a fixed investment in index funds may know what the concept of annualized 13% is, which is a very high income. And 13% is only the guaranteed increase of such stores, which is much higher than 13% according to the actual situation in recent years.

Then talk about cities, why Ningbo, Jiaxing and Dongguan. In the future, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta will become stronger and stronger, and they have formed a * * * knowledge. In the drastic changes, these three cities are more likely to find shops with relatively low prices than first-tier cities, and the future housing prices of the cities in the middle of these two circles will gradually converge with the surrounding cities.

Finally, don't put cash assets in the bank. First of all, it must be clear that the cash assets you hold are only a small part of your total assets. If most of your assets are in the bank, you are actually lying in a comfortable pit. This pit is comfortable, but it will only sink deeper and deeper. Most experts would recommend investing in index funds. My suggestion is to invest in active stock funds. Let me talk about my personal opinion. First of all, cash assets are only a small part of your total assets, and you must definitely pursue high returns. It doesn't make much sense for you to pursue a little income with a small head. Active funds may not be as stable as index funds, but if active funds vote, the risk is not great. If the stock market rises sharply, the increase of active funds in one year may offset the increase of index funds in several years. In addition, at this point in time, I am still optimistic about the fund market. On the one hand, the stock market will definitely develop in the direction of institutionalization in the future. On the other hand, it is purely my personal guess: the current savings scale of residents in our country is 100 trillion, which is actually a very terrible monster. In the future, young people's willingness to save is certainly not as good as that of the elderly, and the decline in the savings rate is an inevitable trend. So where should this scourge lead? I think the guiding fund is the most possible. After all, the fund and.