Watching the property market plummet.

I don't know where you are and what you are doing today, but anyway, I hope you can start this holiday slowly from today.

What should I talk to you about today? Today I want to talk to you about something macro.

Friends who read our content a little longer may feel that our account rarely talks about some virtual things.

The reason is that although these things are rich, they are only the transmission of emotions in essence, which is of no substantial help to readers.

So for a long time, we all quit this content.

But today is a special day. Maybe we can try to talk.

Why? In fact, it is also because I feel scared before going to bed at this moment.

Because of the house bought in 2020, because of the policy alternation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and because of the changes in the property market in the last three months, I feel that I am not careful, and this may not happen.

This year, I was a practitioner, an observer and, of course, a participant in voting with my feet. I have mixed feelings about this track.

Throughout January of 202 1, I watched the boat turn in front of me, and I could even feel the sound of the steering wheel rocker.

0 1

I wonder if you have noticed the property market policy in recent days. It should be two cities with special symbolic significance.

Shanghai first-hand houses need to be graded.

Property buyers not only need qualifications, the higher your score, the more you can enter the lottery range, and the standard of scoring depends on where you are from, whether you are a family or not, and whether you have bought a house recently.

Shenzhen second-hand residential area began to bid.

Different communities have corresponding guidance prices, which are adjusted once a year to give a reference to the owners who sell houses this year. Your price should not be too high. If it is too high, it will be suspected of setting off the house price.

Of course, not only these two cities, but also more cities have recently introduced more policies to control and prevent the property market from overheating.

Under the leading structure of "one city, one policy", this exam also fully tests the governance ability of local policies, and behind each policy also represents the soft power of the city.

We don't understand where the policy is good and where the policy is unreasonable, but we look at this trend and don't know if you have seen the clue.

Repeated policies are essentially repeated government notices. The repeated notice of the government actually means that the matter of defining a house as real estate has begun to become a winning figure spread on the desktop.

We may have our own survivor bias on this track, but in the real world, there are still too many people who ignore the value of real estate.

Nearly 70% of Shanghai's housing is defined as an old community, and Shenzhen has a larger village in the city. Now many people still don't understand the value of real estate.

Because of this, for a long time in the past, the appreciation of real estate was obtained by a large number of speculators.

Before, many charlatans in the market summarized various psychological routines, but the real reason behind them was that most people ignored them, resulting in poor information.

202 1 The biggest change is to directly tell every ordinary individual the bonus of buying a house.

Shanghai's biggest inclination to the first-hand house lottery is the families without houses, who can get the right to buy houses first. The reason behind this is to let the last wave of people who missed the real estate dividend catch the last bus.

Nothing is simpler than this.

There's nothing to feel unfair about. From the perspective of the city, the development of urbanization has benefited countless people, and the participants in each wave are people who have been screened by policies.

Nothing is more straightforward and transparent than this year's screening.

There are no more magicians in the Jianghu, all of them are fellow travelers.

Turn the property into a winning number for everyone to recognize and let more people own family assets.

Is this important?

This matter is of course very important. A family with family assets can indeed hedge all kinds of risks.

After 2020, including the first month of 202 1, everyone felt the changes around them.

Whether you own a bitcoin, a bottle of Moutai or a Tesla, you can feel the price fluctuation and uncontrollable.

It is so difficult to see through the world, but it is not so simple to see through yourself.

But it may be a little easier recently, and everyone can get a point.

02

On the track of real estate, we should all have a basic psychological preparation.

There is no complete liberalism.

The house you want, if you have money, you must not sell it. The house you want to sell is not accepted by everyone at any time.

The sales restriction policy has only been out for two or three years, and now countless cities across the country have become standard; As soon as the price limit came out, countless people felt unreasonable, and now everyone is used to it. It is common to bind the holding area, define the decoration standard and determine the interior area in the land transfer stage. ...

Even in the last six months, everything is a new term about grading, second-hand guiding price, talent priority and first-hand sales restriction.

We should learn to adapt to this rhythm, which is normal. The real estate industry itself is only 30 years old, and perhaps what we are seeing now is just beginning.

We should learn the laws of real estate and get used to the frequency of various policies.

And remember, the rules of the property market must be more and more complicated, but behind the complexity is not absolute fairness, but it must be relative justice.

The logic behind relative justice is that no one can get the qualification by drilling loopholes, and no one can win the income by holding it quickly in the short term.

We should have awe of the rules and the market.

So at the same time, we all need to reflect on whether the real estate in our hands has the ability to hedge the policy.

Don't get me wrong, what I'm saying is, have we ever thought about whether this house in our hands is movable in the face of any difficult policies?

It is actually a bit difficult for policies to destroy the value of houses, but it is too simple for policies to lock in the liquidity of houses.

There are ten thousand ways to realize it.

So have we ever thought about whether you will sell the house we live in now, and whether it will sell well if it is put on the market?

Have you ever wondered why Shanghai's housing-free tilt is mainly aimed at first-hand housing? We have ruled out various reasons.

An important logic is that many second-hand houses on the market are not real estates, but first-hand houses must be.

Because today's first-hand housing has experienced commercial operation, housing enterprises know how to build it into a property with financial attributes, so its value must be movable in any case.

In fact, every time I write an old story, there will be a lot of streams of consciousness backstage to discuss with me the awesome features of the old story. Actually, it's boring to talk too much.

Everyone chews carefully the intention behind each rule. We are all tiny individuals, and traders in this city can see the essence better through this trajectory.

03

Don't doubt the ability of regulation and control, and don't doubt the determination to regulate and stabilize the property market. Facts have proved that no risk comes from loss, and all risks come from liquidity.

The last straw to crush yourself is often the lack of food.

This year we feel that the bank's restrictions on mortgage loans are based on this consideration.

But this thing has already been carried out vigorously at the B end. Under the three red lines, all housing enterprises are in chaos, from green land to Huaxia happiness to Fu Sheng. ...

Many people can't figure out why they can't suddenly say no to the projects they meet the requirements, build their own houses and sell back the funds normally.

Behind the three red lines is actually the liquidation of all housing enterprises. The purpose of liquidation is to ask whether all the developments are within our ability.

For a long time, some housing enterprises have been superstitious about two things, one is too big to fail, and the other is red identity. They think that as long as I do these two things, everything I do is invincible.

So we see that many companies have done a lot of ppt, and many inexplicable sections have been derived. Then we also saw that many companies introduced insurance funds to become their second shareholders, and the last thing that happened was actually the barbaric expansion after thinking that they could sit back and relax.

After three red lines, it is two red lines that turn to the buyer.

I don't know how many people still don't know what are the two red lines in the field of personal mortgage. I suggest you study it. This incident has caused a strong shock within the bank and will soon spread.

In essence, I think this is a liquidation of property buyers.

Who is the liquidator? Like real estate companies, those buyers who think they can be too big to fail.

I am in the Jianghu of this property market. Too many people have told me stories about how they broke the purchase restriction and mortgage package, and also heard how many credit cards they used to support the mortgage.

This round of property market liquidation is essentially this group of people.

When a city is willing to tilt its housing to households without housing, how determined is it to liquidate the arbitrageurs who get real estate on the gray edge of the city?

The three red lines began to show their power one year after landing, and the two red lines were almost at the same time.

Buy a good house, but don't buy too many. This is just my rule.

Don't put your eggs in too many baskets easily when you are not living well enough. In essence, this is not diversification, because the basket can be easily taken away if you are not careful.

Buying a house can be said to be the belief of many people. This sentence is actually only half right. You can like or want to buy a house, but I also hope that everyone can afford to sell a house.

After selling the house once, you really know what kind of ability is needed to realize assets. The word wealth on paper will never leave you.

I have bought and sold houses several times, and I have one or two good houses. This is my 202 1 blessing to you.

04

How do I feel now?

Faced with such an industry, I seem to be standing on the splint of a big ship and looking forward. The hull is stable and energetic, and I can vaguely hear the laughter behind me and the crackling of bonfires.

But I can also feel the white splash formed by the tide washing away the plywood and reflecting back.

Looking far away, it is the kind of deep blue that can't be seen. It seems that there are glaciers on both sides, and you can see the warm sunset when you look up.

What should we think when we are standing on the splint at this moment, whether to think about how dangerous the glacier is, how charming the sea is, or what the fellow passengers of this ship are talking about?

In fact, everything is self-knowledge.

So if I want to send you another blessing, I hope that after today, you can put on your life jacket and have one more person around you.

In this way, when the waves hit, you can enjoy the beauty of the sea. On the wave, French kiss is your beloved girl.

202 1, may we all ride the wind and waves all the time and love like a flood.