Food price forecast in 2022: Will the rise of strong wheat, strong rice and weak corn "break out" in advance? Here comes the answer.

At the beginning of the new year, many farmers want to know how to plant corn or soybeans in this area this year. There are also some local people who plan to change paddy fields into dry fields.

A year is in spring. If you choose well, you may earn more. If you choose badly, you will not only fail to increase your income, but even lose money.

So how will food prices change this year? How to plant this land? Let's talk about this today.

0 1, the wheat price "oscillated and strengthened".

After the Spring Festival, the wheat market rose strongly again after a small sideways shock. At present, the mainstream price of domestic wheat processing enterprises has entered 1.44- 1.480 yuan/kg.

On February 2 1 day, a number of flour enterprises raised their purchase prices, including: Shandong Huimin Yudong flour rose by 0.5 point, 1.455 yuan/kg; Shandong Huatong flour industry rose by 1.0 points, 1.460 yuan/kg; Wudeli in Xiongxian County rose by 1.0 point, 1.470 yuan/kg; Longyao Jinmailang Company rose 0.5 point to 1.470 yuan/kg.

The logic of rising wheat price: the auction volume and price of minimum purchase price wheat and reserve wheat keep hitting high points, and the transaction is hot, which helps the market price of wheat to strengthen.

The data shows that during the week from February 14 to February 18, the branches of China Grain Storage put in 4 1.2 10000 tons of wheat (last week 12000 tons), and the transaction was 3416000 tons.

Among them, the highest price of Shandong 17 was 2950, and the highest price of Jiangsu 18 was 2960, and the price soared.

I am cautious about the market outlook of wheat, because the current price of wheat has reached a record high. It is estimated that the planting area of wheat will expand in 2022, and the price of wheat is likely to return to the trend of corn 202 1 this autumn, with a high probability of falling back.

02. The price of rice is "weak and hard to change".

This year, the trend of rice market is unsatisfactory, and the market is like a stagnant pool. Although the National Development and Reform Commission and other four departments have recently jointly released the news that the minimum purchase price of rice will be raised (the output of third-class early indica rice will be raised by 2 points in 2022, 1.24 yuan/kg; Mid-late rice rose 1 point, 1.29 yuan/kg; Japonica rice is increased by 1, 1.3 1 yuan/kg), but the boost to the market is limited.

At present, the mainstream price of early indica rice in South China is 1.32- 1.36 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price of middle and late rice is 1.26- 1.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream price of japonica rice in Northeast China is 1.30- 1.40 yuan/kg, and in some areas of Heilongjiang, it is reduced to 1.26 yuan/kg.

The following table is the latest rice price list in some areas of Heilongjiang:

At present, the rice market price fluctuates little. Under the three major pressures of high rice stocks, 202 1 increased production and the recent price of imported rice is generally lower than that of domestic rice, it is unlikely that the rice market will rise sharply.

03. The corn market will definitely go up.

After the holiday, the corn market is generally weak, but in terms of regions, Shandong is weak in northeast China and strong in north China. February 2 1 Statistics show that the mainstream price of corn in Shandong is 27 18.07 yuan/ton, down 0.34 yuan/ton from yesterday. North China 17 19. 14 yuan/ton, up by 5 yuan/ton compared with yesterday; Corn enterprises in various places were mixed, with 5 up and 5 down, among which 5 rose: Zaozhuang Runlong rose by 0.5 point, 1.375 yuan/kg; Huayi Ronghai rose 1.0 point, 1.375 yuan/kg; Funing Lihua rose 1.0 point, 1.285 yuan/kg; Mengzhou Hou Yuan rose by 0.5 points, 1.395 yuan/kg; Kailu Wang Yu rose 0.5 point, 1.265 yuan/kg.

The five fallen enterprises, two in Shandong, two in Henan and Heilongjiang 1, are listed in the attached table:

Regarding the corn market, although the market is not good after the year, I am still optimistic about the market outlook. It is expected that corn prices will rise from late March to May, and everyone can wait and see.

The main logic has four points:

The first is the window period when grass-roots corn bottoms out. At present, 25-30% of the surplus grain at the grassroots level is basically sold out at this time and enters the circulation link.

The second is the critical period for processing enterprises to stock up. This period of time is the stage for enterprises with insufficient stocking in the early stage to increase their inventory, which will drive the price of corn.

Third, traders are waiting for the grain to rise. At present, a large amount of corn on the market is in the hands of traders, who need profits and will not sell it without raising prices.

Fourth, the atmosphere of the corn market is changing. During this period, the bullish sentiment in the corn market is high, and there is a high probability of a "grain grab war".

From this point of view, the price of corn is still optimistic, but some insiders have analyzed that the price increase of corn may break out in advance, and personal views are different. They believe that it is difficult for corn to rise before mid-March, and April should be the "golden time" for rising.

What to plant this year? Personally, I think the planting benefit is in this order: planting corn is better than planting soybean, planting soybean is better than planting wheat, and planting wheat is better than planting rice.

Which one makes more money? How did you arrange it? Welcome to express your views for farmers' reference.

(Text/Sannong Guangxun)