How to treat the current economic situation, form and policy

To correctly view the current economic situation, we need to grasp several aspects:

First of all, the economy is going through difficult times.

For some time, in addition to the international economic downturn, the domestic economy began to change in stages after ending the double-digit high-speed growth, and the growth rate continued to decline, showing a step-by-step decline. The gradual decline in economic growth has increased the pressure on all sides, and a considerable number of enterprises have difficulties in operating or even closed down. In some areas, the economic downturn is serious, the fiscal revenue of some provinces plummets, the unemployment problem is prominent, the stock market fluctuates greatly, and the debt risk of local governments increases. From the statistical data, the downward pressure on China's economy is mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, the three major demands are shrinking at the same time; Second, industrial production continued to decline; Third, the problem of overcapacity is still outstanding; Fourth, difficulties in some areas are outstanding.

Second, there are bright spots in the economic downturn.

From high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth, it shows that China's economic growth has entered a "new normal". The economic downturn has indeed brought us unprecedented pressure. The pressure is current, but there are also some bright spots. First, the industrial structure has been accelerated and the tertiary industry has grown rapidly; Second, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has increased significantly. At present, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure has reached 60%, indicating that the dynamic structure of China's economic growth is accelerating adjustment and the basic role of consumption is constantly strengthening; Third, the number of new market players continued to increase rapidly. Under the downward pressure of the economy, although some enterprises have difficulties in operation or even closed down, new enterprises are constantly emerging. In fact, the survival of enterprises is the embodiment of the competition law of market economy. Fourth, energy consumption has further declined. Reducing consumption and pollution is an important content of changing the mode of economic development and an important embodiment of improving the efficiency of economic operation; Fifth, the income gap between urban and rural residents has further narrowed. The average income growth and economic growth rate of urban and rural residents show that the average income growth of urban and rural residents is relatively stable.

Third, find and grasp the economic development opportunities under the "three-phase superposition"

China is experiencing the "three-phase superposition" of economic growth shift period, structural adjustment pain period and early stimulus policy digestion period. The so-called shift is to change from high-end to mid-range, and deceleration becomes inevitable; Structural adjustment means that industries with overcapacity shrink; The digestion of the previous stimulus policy means that the cumulative effect and spillover effect of the stimulus policy are still playing a role, which increases the difficulty of economic restructuring and restricts the choice and application of macro policies in the current period. The contradiction of "three-phase superposition" is intertwined, which restricts the realization of China's economic growth target. Also, one of the most talked-about problems at present is "not being an official". At the present stage in our country, due to the imperfect matching of relevant systems, under the background of stricter discipline requirements, there are indeed some officials who are afraid of making mistakes, do not seek merit but seek nothing, are timid in attracting investment and promoting economic development, and their enthusiasm and initiative have declined. In recent years, the assessment of GDP growth indicators has been weakened, and some regions and counties have cancelled the GDP assessment, which has also had a certain objective impact on local economic growth. At the same time, we must also see that inertia is often at work in the economic downturn.

However, when analyzing the economic situation, we can't just look at one side. If you don't see the difficulties, you can't find the policy focus. If you only look at the difficulties and don't see the bright spots, it is easy to lose confidence. The favorable condition of the economic situation is that the effect of the steady growth policy introduced in recent years will gradually appear; Major projects approved by the state will be invested one after another and produce corresponding economic driving effects; The new trend and bright spot of economic operation will be strengthened; The slowdown of economic growth in the base period means that the new economic growth base is relatively low. As long as the decision-makers can assess the situation, they will still focus on economic construction, mobilize all positive factors, appropriately strengthen and improve macro-control measures, and at the same time accelerate institutional reform, expand the "reform dividend" and turn favorable conditions into actual growth rates.