The GDP growth rate of 8. 1 is a joke.

"Next year, due to the sustained economic recovery and base utility, various macro parameters of China will rebound in an all-round way. It is estimated that the actual GDP growth rate in the first quarter will reach 1 1.4%, and it will decline to around 5.4% in the fourth quarter, showing a serious trend of high before and low after. " 165438+1On October 28th, Liu Yuanchun, vice president of China Renmin University, made a prediction at the annual meeting of China Macroeconomic Forum. He also mentioned that personal feelings about the economic operation next year may seriously deviate from the overall performance of macro data.

Liu Yuanchun. Source: China Macroeconomic Forum official website

"Overall high level, declining quarter by quarter" will be the most remarkable operational feature of macro-economy next year.

165438+1the China macroeconomic forum held in Beijing on October 28th focused on "China's macro-economy moves towards a new pattern of double circulation". When Liu Yuanchun reported the results of China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast at the forum, he said that under the premise that the macro-economy can be normalized next year, the economic growth rate will decline due to the epidemic, and the base will be low. According to the growth trend before the epidemic, the real GDP growth rate next year will be significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level. The growth rate in the first quarter is expected to reach 1 1.4%, and will drop to about 5.4% in the fourth quarter, showing the basic trend of "overall high and quarterly decline".

At the same time, he also believes that we must be alert to this digital illusion. "This does not mean that the real economic situation will inevitably get rid of downward pressure. The sluggish growth rate of the chain still means that the feelings of micro-subjects have not been significantly improved. "

This year is the closing year of China's 13th Five-Year Plan and building a well-off society in an all-round way. Under the severe influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the GDP growth rate dropped by 6.8% in the first quarter. With the normalization of the epidemic, the GDP growth rate in the second and third quarters rebounded to 3.2% and 4.9% respectively.

Liu Yuanchun said that the "V-shaped reversal" that quickly rebounded after such a decline is an important feature of China's macro-economy in 2020. "This is due to China's people-oriented, life-oriented epidemic control plan+moderately stimulating economic assistance plan. In addition, the China epidemic is not synchronized with the world epidemic, and the China industrial chain is not synchronized with the restart of the world industrial chain, so that the advantages of China's supply chain industrial chain are fully exerted. "

China's GDP growth rate rebounded rapidly. Source: Macroeconomic Report of China, 2020-202 1.

China achieved effective epidemic prevention and control earlier, and its industrial production and supply chain resumed operation, thus taking a leading position in the international market. Moreover, under the demand of "house economy" caused by foreign epidemics, the export of epidemic prevention materials and online office supplies has effectively made up for the overall weak external demand. In the first three quarters, the export growth rate of China's integrated circuits, computers, medical devices and other products reached 14.9%, 10.7% and 48.2% respectively. At the peak of overseas outbreak, the global share of China's exports rose to 16%, 3 percentage points higher than last year. In terms of RMB, in the first 10 month, China's exports increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.5%. The total import and export volume increased by 1. 1%, achieving a trade surplus of 27 1 trillion yuan, up by 16.9% year-on-year, which has a strong positive pulling effect on economic growth.

However, Liu Yuanchun added that compared with the secondary industry, the tertiary industry is far from the trend level before the epidemic. The reason is that the tertiary industry has the characteristics of both labor-intensive production and contact-intensive consumption. Residents reduced consumer demand for non-essential goods, and the recovery rate was slow. Especially accommodation and catering, wholesale and retail. In the peak consumption season of the first quarter, there was a great loss. Although the rebound accelerated later, it was still far from the normal growth track. "In difficult times, we rely on large-scale exports to support the full start of internal circulation. Now is the best time to start the new pattern strategy of China's dual-cycle development. "

The external macroeconomic environment will be complex next year, and the dual-cycle development pattern will be the core theme.

Cao Yuanzheng, chairman of BOC International Research Co., Ltd. added that it is also a question whether the epidemic situation can be controlled next year. The global epidemic is still spreading, and the European epidemic cycle may last for several years, so the United States will definitely relax its monetary policy at least until 2023. If the global anti-epidemic situation remains the same, the Finance Bureau continues to expand expenditure, and the interest rate is at a low level, there will be problems in capital flow, which will also bring challenges to China's macro-control.

According to the data of the Bank for International Settlements, since the beginning of this year, the policy interest rates of the world's major developed economies have fallen to an extremely low level in history. At present, it is 0. 125% in the United States, -0. 1% in Japan, 0.0% in the euro zone and 0. 1% in Britain. In contrast, the policy interest rate of the Bank of China is 3.85%, making it the only central bank in the world that keeps its monetary policy normalized.

Liu Yuanchun believes that the impact of the complexity of the external environment on the international circulation system and its impact on China's exports next year may increase the external pressure on China's economy next year. Therefore, "the basic disk of stabilizing internal economic circulation in advance is the core foundation for coping with external shocks and competition among big countries."

However, the researchers noted that "affected by the epidemic, social psychology has changed, and the unemployment risk and income expectation brought about by the downward pressure on the economy have increased, making consumption recovery continue to face severe challenges." The main support point of recent consumption comes from the rise of automobile consumption and high-end consumption rather than mass consumption.

From June 5438- 10, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the retail sales of social consumer goods excluding automobiles only increased by 3.6% year-on-year, far from returning to the normal growth level. From the perspective of consumption structure, because the income level of high-income groups is less affected by the epidemic, high-end consumption power still exists, but the middle-and low-income groups were seriously damaged during the epidemic, resulting in insufficient consumption motivation. Among the residents' consumption expenditure, the consumption items of the middle class decreased obviously, and the Engel coefficient increased. Cai Fang, vice president of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the current consumer demand is not strong enough, which is not only restricted by the current environment, but also affected by the lag effect brought by the previous income decline or slow growth.

"We must seize the window of China's economic recovery during the epidemic and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other." Liu Yuanchun believes that "expanding domestic demand and tapping the potential of domestic demand requires a comprehensive package plan."