Will the sharp decline of fertility rate and negative population growth in China make the future after 15 and 20 years easier or more difficult?

China's negative population growth is hope, and the crisis of population decline is a disaster for the country and the people.

In an ecosystem, if there is no external control, the number of lower species will always multiply and increase until the number exceeds the capacity of the ecosystem, leading to the collapse of the ecosystem and a large number of deaths. When the number of higher species grows to a high density, they will consciously control their fertility, stop growing, and gradually fall back to a safe number, thus avoiding disaster.

In 2022, the total population of China will be reduced by 850,000 by the end of last year. After more than half a century, the rapid population growth finally stopped, and China's national policy of family planning finally came into effect. At the same time, the pressure of overpopulation in China also leads people to consciously control their fertility. Our Chinese nation is a higher species with self-control ability. However, some people with ulterior motives trumpeted the population (decline) crisis theory. However, looking at the overall situation, the root cause of the biggest crisis facing China and the world is still overpopulation rather than population decline. What China should do is to let the population naturally fall back to a reasonable range, instead of encouraging the increase of fertility rate!

1. The problem of overpopulation is still the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads.

1. What is the reasonable population range of China?

Academician Song Jian, a famous cybernetic expert and director of the State Science and Technology Commission, has studied 650 million (moderate population in freshwater resources) and 738 million (maximum population capacity in 2050 in agricultural products and protein). Li Xiaoping, Institute of Population Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that China's long-term population goal should be: 100, and strive to reach 800 million, and strive to reach a lower level. "In any case, it can't be higher than10 billion, and it will be reduced to about 300 million after 200 years, and it can't be higher than 500 million at most." .

According to the global per capita arable land carrying population of 3 mu, China's arable land area is rapidly decreasing, but the bottom line is 65.438+0.8 billion mu, and China's reasonable population is 654.38+0.8/3 = 600 million people.

2. The population of China has been seriously overloaded.

At present, the population of our country has exceeded the carrying capacity of the land. Almost all plains suitable for farming and development have long been reclaimed. Excessive reclamation has led to the continuous degradation and shrinkage of cultivated land in China, while the urbanization development in China has continued to embezzle cultivated land on a large scale and the cultivated land has decreased rapidly. In order to keep the bottom line of 65.438+0.8 billion mu of cultivated land, China is reclaiming mountainous areas unsuitable for cultivation as a "balance of occupation and compensation", which leads to serious soil erosion and ecological deterioration. The land in China can't support1400 million people. China has become the largest grain importer in the world, and the contradiction between overpopulation and land scarcity has become increasingly prominent. With the continuous growth of the world population, the world food crisis is about to break out. As the most populous country in the world, China will face life-threatening if it relies on imported food.

In 2022, China's annual grain import exceeded 65.438+0.7 billion tons, ranking first in the world. The import of major agricultural products in China is equivalent to the sown area, exceeding 654.38+0.654.38+0 billion mu. As long as the economy is developed, the food problem cannot be solved by importing. With the growth of the world population, it is necessary to continuously reclaim the few remaining natural cultivated land, which has aggravated the global ecological crisis. Brazil, which has the largest uncultivated land in the world-Amazon rainforest, is constantly reclaiming cultivated land to become a new granary in the world, and has gradually become one of the largest sources of agricultural products imports in China. (Brazil is the largest source country of virtual cultivated land resources imports of agricultural products in China, with a net import of 356 1.8 million hectares in 2026+0, accounting for 38. 1% of China's total imports of virtual cultivated land resources. Although the food pressure in China has been alleviated, the indirect damage to the rain forest has become increasingly serious. From June to August last year, the area of deforestation and burning wasteland in the Amazon rainforest area of Brazil was 7 135 square kilometers, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. Local farmers cut down and burn forests to reclaim land to grow crops and raise livestock, but if they continue to reclaim land in this way, it will have a serious impact on global climate change and biodiversity. Relying on indirect reclamation of the last rainforest and other natural resources to provide imported food to maintain excessive population is undoubtedly to quench thirst by drinking poison.

3. Moral torture: Every time the population increases, it is actually at the expense of depriving a group of wild animals of their living space and rights.

In these decades, human beings have been killing wild animals and plants and clearing them into cultivated land by encroaching on the habitats of other species to feed the growing population. According to the Global Vitality Report 2022 released by the World Wide Fund for Nature on June 65438+1October 65438+March 2002, compared with June 1970, the number of wild animals in the world has decreased by 69% due to human activities. Over the past half century, the total number of wild animals extinct by human beings in the world has been equivalent to the combined population of Europe, America, Africa, Oceania and China. In recent years, the excessive population growth has led to the extinction of biological species. At present, the rate of species disappearance is much higher than any previous extinction event. If this continues, 50% of all species on the earth will disappear by the end of 2 1 century.

4. Disaster is coming.

Nowadays, human society is facing severe environmental problems (at present, human beings are mainly faced with ten global environmental problems: global warming, biodiversity reduction, forest decline, land desertification, air pollution, water pollution and marine pollution, etc. ) and resource problems (global resource problems are increasingly prominent. Mankind is facing the severe challenge of shortage or even exhaustion of important resources such as water, land, forests and minerals. ), the main source of these problems is the excessive growth of population, and our planet can no longer bear such a huge population.

At present, China's high-yield agriculture with such a large population is highly dependent on chemical fertilizers, pesticides and fossil energy, which is difficult to sustain for a long time. Soil degradation and soil erosion are becoming more and more serious. Once the shallow fossil energy and fertilizer raw material minerals that are easy to be mined (for example, the total reserves of all phosphate rocks in China are 3.2 billion tons, which will be exhausted within 37 years if the current mining speed is 85 million tons per year), the sharp increase in mining costs and the sharp decline in world agricultural output, coupled with the depletion of fossil energy, will turn a large number of farmland into biofuels (at present, the annual food consumption of biofuels in the world has exceeded 300 million tons), and it will no longer be possible to maintain the survival of such a large population and be developed in the world. Due to the development of urbanization and soil erosion, the cultivated land area is also rapidly decreasing and degrading. In order to maintain excessive population and excessive reclamation and consumption of fossil energy, the earth's climate will change greatly, global warming will lead to a substantial reduction in agricultural production, and it is even more impossible for the earth to maintain the survival of the existing huge population, and disasters will fall.

Therefore, the population must decline to avoid disasters and survive the crisis safely!

Second, the population decline crisis advocates nonsense.

Some advocates of the population decline crisis, in order to avoid the aging of the population and strengthen the country, use the demographic dividend to ensure the economy as an excuse to talk nonsense and vilify the national policy. Is that really the case?

1. The fallacy of the wrong country: the crisis of population aging

The crisis of population aging is a false proposition. The so-called aging population is actually only the inevitable result of the improvement of the average life expectancy of society and the embodiment of the progress of human civilization. 1982 The Vienna World Congress on Ageing determined that the proportion of elderly people aged 60 and above in the total population exceeded 10%, which means that this country or region has entered a serious aging. If the population remains stable for a long time, assuming that the average life expectancy is 80 years old, it means that the population aged 60 and above will exceed 20%, which is the so-called super-serious aging society. The elderly population should be below 10%, and the population must grow at a high speed to avoid the so-called aging. The population of today's world has exceeded the ecological load of the earth, and it will be a disaster to continue to grow. This so-called crisis theory of population aging is very ignorant and extremely harmful.

Crisis theorists of the aging population believe that the elderly are useless and a burden to society. Only the fewer the elderly, the better, and the society and the country will have hope. However, the reality is the opposite. In today's developed countries, the proportion of elderly people is relatively high, while the countries with a high proportion of young people are basically poor countries with no hope and no future, such as Niger (the population below 14 accounts for 50% of the total population) and Uganda (the population below 14 accounts for 50% of the total population). In fact, the only thing that can realize the ideal of population aging crisis theorists is primitive society, where the mortality rate is very high, most of them. If we still demand more young people and fewer old people, the world will soon fall into the disaster of population explosion and ecological collapse.

Although the physical strength of the elderly is not as good as that of the young, their knowledge and experience are higher than that of the young. With the development of science and technology, the development of productive forces depends more on knowledge and experience than on physical strength. Therefore, in developed societies, the elderly are more productive than the young, but the retirement system creates the illusion that the elderly are a social burden. Academician Zhong Nanshan, who is 87 years old, is still qualified to be a leading figure in China's fight against epidemic diseases. Biden remained president at the age of 80, and Zhang Zhongmou returned to TSMC as CEO at the age of 78, leading the company to turn losses into profits. At the age of 86, TSMC surpassed Intel in market value and became the world's first semiconductor company. At present, the main force of China's most physical industry agriculture is the elderly in their sixties and seventies, and the youth unemployment rate is extremely high. In 2022, the youth unemployment rate in China reached 19.9%.

Using the aging population as an excuse to encourage the increase of fertility rate is the result of trying to subvert China's family planning policy, which will plunge China into the crisis of overpopulation, resource depletion and ecological collapse, and the theory of population aging crisis, which has brought disaster to the country and people, can be put to rest.

2. Is maintaining population growth for the prosperity of the country?

However, the historical reality has severely hit the advocates of these population recession crisis theories. Throughout history, the highest population times in China's history are mostly the beginning of the decline of the country and the nation, or even the beginning of the country's imminent demise.

Let's look at the times of the first three most populous countries in China's history.

Late Northern Song Dynasty: In the early years of Northern Song Dynasty, the population of more than 30 million people increased to 654.38+065.438+024, which became the era with the largest population of Han nationality in history at that time, but it was quickly destroyed by the minority Jin State (population 7 million).

Late Ming Dynasty: The initial population was 60.55 million. In the third year of Chongzhen (1630), the population of the Ming Dynasty reached its peak, about1930,000, but it was quickly destroyed by the Jurchen nationality with a sparse population of only over two million.

Late Qing Dynasty: There were 70 million people in the early Qing Dynasty. After Yongzheng, the population began to skyrocket. In the late Qing Dynasty, it reached 436 million in 185 1, accounting for almost half of the world's total population at that time, but it became the weakest and most servile dynasty. In the Sino-Japanese War, it was defeated by Japan, whose population was only one tenth of that of the Qing Dynasty.

It can be seen that a large population does not mean that the country is strong. On the contrary, every time in history, the population growth is too intensive, and the contradiction between man and land intensifies, leading to the decline of national and ethnic civil strife.

3. Synonyms of exploitation and oppression: demographic dividend theory,

Supporters of the crisis theory of population decline argue that population decline will make the demographic dividend disappear and our economy will be hit. This is a joke. No developed country in the world today is economically developed because of the demographic dividend, which is actually the patent of poor and backward countries! In essence, it is synonymous with poor workers selling their labor cheaply and being brutally exploited and squeezed by capitalists. China should not continue to rely on the development of the so-called demographic dividend to develop its economy, but should rely on scientific and technological progress as its core competitiveness.

On the contrary, due to the rapid population growth and extremely scarce land in China, it is increasingly difficult to make room for industrial development. Overpopulation also leads to high cost of living and increases labor costs. It has seriously hindered the further development of China's economy.

Third, greater China's wise move.

China's family planning policy for many years was a wise move, which won the support of the overwhelming majority of the people and avoided the disaster of population explosion. However, the current population pressure is still severe. For example, high housing prices are the embodiment of the imminent exhaustion of land resources caused by overpopulation.

In order to avoid the population explosion disaster, China has strictly implemented the one-child system for a long time, and a whole generation has made great sacrifices, and now it has finally come to fruition. However, China still suffers from huge population pressure (too much). If the national policy now makes a 180 degree turn and rewards the birth of three children, it will damage the credibility of the government and make the people doubt the correctness of the government leadership.

Indeed, the fertility rate of people with higher education is relatively low. If the government must change from birth control to birth encouragement policy, it should learn from Singapore, encourage some people with high academic qualifications who are unwilling to have children, strictly control the blind birth of people with high fertility and low academic qualifications, and avoid the degradation of national quality. Encourage fertility, but also encourage those who have never given birth to a child to have their first child, and never encourage those who have given birth to two children to have their third child!

Our wise measure should be to let our population fall back to a safe range, and then consider whether to increase the fertility rate. If the population decline rate is 850,000 per year, it will take 792 years to fall within the safe range of 738 million. Even if it drops to as many as 334 million people in the United States, it is not necessarily a crisis of too few people.

Our world is facing a crisis of overpopulation, not a crisis of overpopulation, and disaster is coming. Negative population growth in China is a glimmer of hope. However, some people with ulterior motives use negative population growth as an excuse to propagate the fallacy of population (reduction) crisis, which may affect the country's decision-making from population control policy to population growth policy, and will put China in danger of overpopulation, leading to resource depletion, ecological collapse and intensified social contradictions. This is a huge crisis facing our country at present.