Who killed Zhongtai and Tieniu?

I'm not sure if Jia Yueting is a liar. Every time I see Mr. Jia's sincere expression, I am always moved, as if I saw the future with him.

Mr. Jia may belong to the ambitious but ignorant type. The plate was spread too big and the tonality was too high for him to land. Maybe he is not a liar, but he can't shut down his own game.

But Zotye is different.

Zotye is more difficult to identify than Teacher Jia. You call it a liar. People have production cars. You said it was not a liar, but Zhongtai and Tieniu Group behind it used nepotism to go public and attracted investors with excessive valuation. And get subsidies during the chaotic period of the new energy market. This combination of reality and reality is hard to prevent and difficult to sum up.

Now Tieniu Group, the major shareholder of Zotye, has entered bankruptcy proceedings, and Zotye has also fallen into a dispute over unpaid wages. This is a predictable result, but the reason may not be what you think. As for the extent to which Zotye is bleak, it is probably a plunge and insolvency. Bankruptcy liquidation or capital injection is not the point. Importantly, it reflects the history, national conditions and market characteristics of China automobile market.

On the Three Realms of "Copying"

Let me talk about Zotye's "plagiarism" first.

A few years ago, when I was broadcasting, I once scolded Zotye in the studio. After the program was broadcast, people were not very happy when it was heard by local leaders. The local radio station reported that the leaders hoped that the media would tolerate independent enterprises and give them time.

That makes sense, but I didn't think it was suitable for Zotye. Most independent brands have imitations in the early days, which are tender and green, and dominate the world by cheap. For example, BYD imitates Corolla and Buick HRV, Changan has a soft spot for Land Rover and Lexus, and even the Great Wall has made a cool bear with Kia flavor.

However, Zotye's imitation show is tough. If the above is still a reference, then Zotye's gameplay is basically plagiarized, with a strong purpose, as if it is in the bones. Once this image is fixed, it is difficult to change.

Zotye imitates brands including but not limited to Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Toyota and Suzuki, and there are many models. But since you have done it, you must do it well, so quality is more important.

There are generally three kinds of imitation: the first is to learn from and then adapt, similar to washing manuscripts. The important thing is to have something to think independently in it. For example, the first generation of CS75, can not clearly determine its relationship with a brand, just deja vu.

The second is plagiarism. Lu Feng is dead now. Once, Lu Feng X7 imitated Land Rover Range Rover, that is, he copied the first paper in the class directly during the exam, even the wrong questions. But the advantage of this kind of plagiarism is that if the copying technology is good, it may create highly similar works of art.

From the point of view of replication, Lu Feng's replication is very successful. Painters need skills to copy, and by analogy, copying design also needs skills.

The third kind is Zotye, which plagiarizes but doesn't look good. For example, the Z700 doesn't look like the Audi A6, but the comment area and public opinion are conclusive, which is probably a failed plagiarism.

As for the first generation T600, which is more like Touareg, although it is imitation, it can't reach the level of self-deception of Lu Feng X7, and the naked eye can basically tell the truth from the false. Maybe the imitation object is not found well. At that time, this generation of Touareg itself did not have the aura of the civilian overlord of the previous generation. In addition, the shape of the lamp group and air intake grille of the vehicle model is set according to the size of the vehicle model. It can do this, but the effect will be different if it is replaced by a smaller model.

Neither T600 nor Z700 is a very exquisite imitation. If I were to recommend the high-quality products in the imitation cottage, I would still recommend Landwind X7. The master chose to deceive himself, why not completely?

Imitation is everyone's habit, which is human nature. People, like monkeys, learn what they see, like learning idols' every move in adolescence or using online buzzwords, but after a long time, they precipitate their own things, not imitating them later, but their own things are fixed and their hard disks are full.

The problem is that Zotye has lost its original characteristics after not imitating it. At this stage, T500 looks good, but T700, which looks like Land Rover, is the most impressive. If Zotye continues to imitate this road (regardless of legal and copyright issues), it may really become a school of its own.

The industry may think that high imitation finally made the market abandon Zotye, but this is precisely its way of survival: Zotye sold 220,000 vehicles in 2065,438+05, 330,000 vehicles in 2065,438+06 and 365,438+07,000 vehicles in 2065,438+08, showing a significant decline, but it also reached 230,000 vehicles.

What concept? Last year, GAC Mitsubishi, which made every effort to build an off-road family, sold only136,200 vehicles, Dongfeng Renault sold180,000 vehicles and PSA sold165,438+million vehicles. In other words, Zotye has surpassed these second-line joint venture brands that are still trying to build cars with a tape measure, that is, bad money drives out good money. Although everyone's price is different, it is the same at any level of the market.

This shows that the market has not abandoned Zotye.

However, the appearance can be copied, but the technology is difficult to copy. What really breaks Zotye's financial path is the improvement of technical threshold, such as national 6 emissions.

The drag-and-drop formula doesn't work in the end.

Let's talk about the cost first.

At one time, a car of Zotye was equipped with an electric suction door (possibly Z700). 20 18 Guangzhou Auto Show Seen Audi A6? An audience at Allroad told me that this car has an electric suction door. I didn't believe it at first, but I didn't believe it until I demonstrated it-it's easy to be condescending in my impression.

However, about 654.38+ 10,000 is equipped with Zotye. With regard to cost, especially for products with a grade of about 6,543,800+,the lower the cost space, the smaller the cost space. If you leave the cost space of every inch of land to the electric suction door, suppose it is so useful that you feel that you are driving A6? Allroad, plus other gorgeous configurations, how much space is left for the three major pieces and security?

The electric suction door itself is not guilty, but guilty because it destroys the balance. I have opened Zotye's products twice, one is Damai and the other is T600. I feel that Mitsubishi's 4G engine and gearbox have no electricity, and the dual-clutch gearbox itself doesn't like downshifting, so the driver is basically out of control. But the point is, drivers in China don't care much about this.

One more word: Unless a ZF is born in China, it will be difficult for independent brands to catch up with joint ventures in the field of fuel vehicles, and a gearbox is enough to open more than one level. Of course, after the rise of new energy, this problem has been circumvented.

In the case of losing two big pieces (in fact, it may be three big pieces), does it make sense for the interior to be awesome? There will be different answers in different markets, but in the China market, it is not only meaningful, but also significant.

So basically what kind of consumers there are, what kind of brands and products there are. Zotye is innocent and the market is the original sin. It's like many people don't listen to the band, but go to see the band's Summer. Can you say that the band that went to perform was in decline? This is the spontaneous choice of the market. There are Puritans in the world, but we are not qualified to ask everyone to be a Puritan.

Let's turn to technology. Now Zotye's capital chain is broken, which may be fatal to heavy asset industries such as automobiles, but Zotye's products have been difficult to circulate as commodities. At present, all Zotye's fuel products are national 5 in emissions. In other words, without Mitsubishi's oxygen permeation, Zotye can hardly solve this problem by itself.

In this sudden change, whose blood thickness is also tested, most manufacturers have lost blood in this wave of vibration. In theory, Zotye can continue to purchase Mitsubishi's National 6 Power, but it has not passed.

To some extent, Zotye can also be regarded as a new force in building cars, although it has been making products since zero years ago. Like the new forces now, power is basically outsourced. In addition, the power supply can be outsourced, and other components can of course be outsourced.

So is there a threshold for building a car? Yes, but money can solve it, such as Evergrande. If you overestimate the threshold of building a car, you underestimate the power of capital.

What really ended Zotye was that the management turned Xiaoshengchu into a college entrance examination, with the same effect as new energy subsidies. However, forced ascension also has side effects. On the premise that battery technology cannot be improved, in order to meet the cruising range standard, a radical battery density design is adopted. Should we be responsible for the recent frequent spontaneous combustion?

One idea is, if there is no national six emissions and epidemic surprise, can Zotye live for a few more years?

What exactly is technology used for?

Zotye doesn't play soy sauce, and its gameplay could have survived in the low-threshold market for a long time; What really involves cheating is its early practice of registering offspring with new energy production qualifications, which triggered a storm. Generally speaking, Zotye took advantage of the immaturity of this industry and was happy for several years.

But technology is such a thing: it may not guarantee that you will live well. For example, Mazda, the brand with the best technology is not the brand with the highest sales volume in the market, but technology can ensure that your capital stays on the game table.

The real black technology has never been seen by the general public. Used to flaunt the awesome use of enterprises, the demonstration effect is stronger. For example, the pre-collision function of the new Mercedes-Benz S-Class actively raises the body, which is doomed to be unable to be popularized to cheap models. Those popularized technologies are definitely linked to low cost.

However, this does not mean that the technical threshold is so low that there is no bottom line. Whether it is Zotye or Tieniu Group, including later Han Teng and Ma Jun, it is basically a copy and paste of Zotye. In 20 17, Ma Jun automobile executives said in an interview that Ma Jun expected the annual sales volume to reach150,000 in 20 18, which did not make people feel that he was launching a satellite, but was also based on his optimism about the models and market at that time.

The upgrade of macro-control finally caught Zhongtai and Tieniu off guard, which is based on their consistent model. The collective collapse of the system of Tieniu may also have some management drawbacks, such as the complicated nepotism between Zhongtai and Tieniu, and the trick of Tieniu hanging upside down with his left hand when Zhongtai went public.

In the final analysis, the original intention of enterprises is not pure, and they are (probably) more inclined to make profits in the capital market. For example, Tieniu Holdings Jinma acquired Zotye, and the price far exceeded Geely's acquisition of Volvo.

But subtly, even in the 20 17 when China and Thailand were in full swing, Tie Niu failed to complete the gambling agreement promised at the beginning.

This seems to show that even the capital market has a rational side. If you don't value the play of the Iron Bull system, you really lack sustainability, have no technical foundation, and really have no sense of security.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.