Is it difficult for retail investors and pig farmers to ride a tiger? The second fattening hopes that the pig price will break 5? Where is the transfer of animal husbandry?

Recently, the price of pigs has taken a slide and plummeted. Retail investors and breeding predators are facing big losses and it is difficult to ride a tiger. Pig farmers who can generously prepare for secondary fattening are waiting for opportunities. I hope the pig price can be lower, and then lower, preferably below 5 yuan overnight. In this way, your own breeding costs can also be greatly reduced. As the old saying goes, peers are different. But pig farmers are looking forward to raising prices and lowering prices. The livestock breeding market is in a downturn, where is the turning point?

0 1

Pig price trend

In April, pig prices still showed a downward trend. At the end of March, the pig price was still 7.35 yuan/kg. Now, the price of pigs has dropped to 7.2 yuan/Jin. According to statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the domestic average pig price was 7.49 yuan/kg, which was about 30% lower than the same period last year. The price of live pigs is lower than the cost line, and the losses of retail investors and breeding giants continue.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Rural Affairs, the total pig slaughter in June and February this year increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the market supply was relatively loose. However, the recovery of consumption and catering is slow, the inventory of superimposed slaughter industry is limited, the upstream and downstream of pigs are generally producing at a loss, the consumption of white strips is sluggish, and the market is bearish. Therefore, although the current decline in pig prices has slowed down, the rise has also been greatly resisted.

02

Quotation evaluation

Different from the low pig price, the price of piglets has been rising in a straight line since then, with a large increase in February. However, the current pig price is low, and the market is not willing to make up the column. Finally, the price of piglets rose for 7 weeks and then began to decline. At present, the price of piglets has dropped to 16 yuan/kg. In some places, the price of piglets even fell to around 550 yuan.

According to 14 kg piglet feed, it rises to 260 kg slaughter, the ratio of whole meat to feed is 2.73, and the feed is about 1.7 yuan /kg. If the price of pigs in the market still does not increase substantially, each pig will lose at least about 500 yuan in February and March. A pig farmer told the editor that he had purchased some second-class piglets before, which were cheap, but the survival rate was not high in the end. In this regard, the editor also suggested that the purchased piglets should be cautious and the vaccine qualification should not be less. Don't be greedy and cheap, the loser can't go back.

03

The turning point is the slaughter of cattle.

Now the pig market is depressed and the production capacity is saturated. Where is the turning point of animal husbandry? There are only two ways to raise the price of pigs. One is that the production capacity drops sharply, like during the non-plague period, and then the pig price can rise to 20. But now it's almost impossible. Although the epidemic has been repeated, pig farms are also good at fighting the epidemic, and the impact of pig epidemic on pigs is less than 18. So this road is almost impossible.

Another way is to kill cattle and pigs. As long as these cows and pigs are slaughtered, they will attract new secondary fattening. As long as the second fattening is supplemented, the pig price will increase by at least 1-2 yuan/kg. At the same time, only when all the cows and pigs are sold out can the slaughterhouse's cold storage be filled. In this way, they will raise the price of pigs from the original price reduction. Fresh meat has gone up, and frozen meat has a market and a profit. What do you think of this?