What is the comprehensive strength of China?

How does China rank in the world in terms of comprehensive national strength and military strength? China is a special country with unique cultural tradition, political model and vast and diverse territory. Without facing up to the particularity of China and understanding the national conditions of China, it is impossible to do anything well in China. Due to the different perspectives of observers, the evaluation of China's current economic strength is varied, even diametrically opposed. It is not easy to make a proper economic evaluation of China, a changing country, in a short time. I. About the Economic Scale of China The economic scale of a country mainly refers to the total amount of products and services produced by the country in one year, which is called gross domestic product, commonly known as GDP. Because the variety and quality of products and services in different countries are very different, it is not convenient to summarize and compare them directly, so there must be an international standard, which used to be gold, but now it is US dollars. Moreover, due to the different methods of formulating international standards, such as exchange rate method and purchasing power evaluation method, when calculating a country's economic scale with different methods, the conclusions are often inconsistent, or even the results are far from each other, especially in China, Russian and other transitional countries. 1. According to the exchange rate method, in the world GDP ranking published by the World Bank in 2003, the GDP of seven countries exceeded 1 trillion dollars: the United States still ranked first, with GDP reaching 10.9 trillion dollars; Japan, $4.3 trillion; Germany, 2.4 trillion US dollars; Britain, 1.8 trillion US dollars; France, 1.7 trillion US dollars; Italy,10.5 trillion USD; China ranks seventh in the world with US$ 65,438 +0.42 trillion. It is worth noting that in the annual report of the World Bank in 2000-2002, China's GDP always ranked sixth, ahead of Italian. In 2003, China's economic growth rate was 9. 1%, ranking first in the world. According to the figures released by the Italian National Bureau of Statistics, in 2003, Italy's gross domestic product reached 1039367 billion euros (calculated at constant prices of 1995), an increase of only 0.3% year-on-year, creating economic growth since 1993. Why did China's ranking drop in 2003, when China's economic growth rate was much higher than that of Italy? Deepak, chief economist of the World Bank in China, said that the World Bank's explanation of converting a country's gross national product into dollars in different years was influenced by the exchange rate changes in different years. Specifically, in 2002, the average 1 euro could be converted into 1 dollar, while in 2003, less than 0.9 euro could be converted into 1 dollar. It is precisely because of the appreciation of the euro against the dollar that Italy and China changed their positions. Because China's RMB is directly linked to the US dollar, and Italy is a euro zone country, the trade-off between the US dollar and the euro has led to the rise of Italy's ranking and the decline of China's ranking. It can be seen that the change of calculation basis can also lead to the rise and fall of a country's economic strength, which can be "calculated".

The calculation of GDP by exchange rate method often cannot accurately reflect the growth and decline of economic strength between countries. The exchange rate is only determined according to the international exchange price of some products and services in a country. Using this method to calculate GDP is not only influenced by the domestic price formation mechanism, but also by many factors such as the variety, scale and purpose of participating in international transactions. Generally speaking, for big countries with low degree of marketization and low level of economic development, the GDP calculated by this method is often low. For example, in 2003, China's GDP calculated by this method only accounted for 3.9% of the world GDP, while Russian GDP only accounted for 1.4% of the world GDP. This is not the true embodiment of China and Russia's economic strength, because both China and Russia are big countries with domestic demand, and most economic sectors directly serve their own countries and their own people (such as agriculture, basic industries, construction, transportation and commerce). The products and departments involved in international exchange only account for a small part of the national economy, and because the economy is underdeveloped and in urgent need of foreign exchange, the price positioning of products in international transactions is very low, resulting in a low exchange rate and a low GDP calculated by the exchange rate method. 2. According to the purchasing power evaluation method, the total products and services of a country can be divided into domestic products and export products according to the destination. The exchange rate is set according to the situation of export products, which is only suitable for the comparison between export products of various countries. For products that serve the domestic market (for big countries, this part is often the main body of the economy), it is difficult for countries to compare with the exchange rate. Take China market and American market as examples. For example, a domestic 1 TV set costs 2,000 yuan, a set of 130 square meters, and the market price is 200,000 yuan. In the United States, the former costs $240, while the latter costs more than $65.438 billion. The current exchange rate is calculated according to the trade products of the two countries, that is, converted by TV sets, 2000 RMB = 240 USD, 1 USD = 8.33 RMB. When China's GDP (including non-tradable products and services such as housing) is converted at this exchange rate, it is concluded that China's economic scale in US dollars calculated by the exchange rate method (ranked seventh in the world in 2003); If converted according to the residential price, it is 200,000 RMB = 65,438 USD +0,65,438 USD +0 = 2 yuan RMB. If China's GDP (including TV sets and other trade products and services) is converted according to this exchange rate, it can be concluded that China's GDP calculated by purchasing power evaluation method is expressed in US dollars (China's GDP calculated by this method is the second in the world). It can be seen that the GDP of China calculated by different methods is far from each other, and the GDP of China calculated by TV exchange rate is far less than that of China calculated by resident exchange rate. Of course, the calculation of exchange rate method and purchasing power evaluation method in reality is much more complicated than this, but the reason is the same. Purchasing power evaluation method is to convert all kinds of products and services of countries according to the prices of similar products and services in the United States, and then get the GDP of each country. Compared with the simple exchange rate method, the GDP calculated by this method is closer to reality and more suitable to reflect the economic scale of each country, while the exchange rate method is more suitable to reflect the competitiveness of each country's economy.

When evaluating the real living conditions of a country's residents, international organizations usually adopt per capita GDP calculated at purchasing power parity exchange rate instead of at nominal exchange rate. In a recent report of the United Nations Development Programme, the per capita GDP of China was calculated to be US$ 4,580 by using the purchasing power evaluation method. On this basis, in 2003, China's GDP was calculated to be $5.9 trillion by purchasing power evaluation method. 3. The biggest drawback of the exchange rate method based on physical quantity is that products that do not participate in international exchange are regarded as products that participate in exchange, thus weakening the economic scale of countries with low technical level and great demand for foreign technology; Although the purchasing power evaluation method corrects the defects of the exchange rate method, it is difficult to compare them technically because of the diversity of products and services. Therefore, neither the exchange rate method nor the purchasing power evaluation method can accurately reflect the economic scale of a country. Comparing the main products of various countries directly according to the physical quantity can directly reflect a country's economic strength.

At present, the output of major industrial and agricultural products such as grain, meat, cotton, fruit, steel, coal, cement, fertilizer, household appliances, mobile phones and digital program-controlled switches ranks first in the world, while the output of power generation, cotton cloth and chemical fiber ranks second in the world, and the output of sugar and crude oil ranks fourth and fifth respectively. China's textiles and clothing accounted for 13% of the total world trade, ranking first in the world for many years. China's oil consumption has jumped to the second place in the world, and China's power generation accounts for 50% of the United States and 8% of the world. The price of raw materials in the world's basic industries is greatly influenced by the "China factor" ... From the scale of most physical products, China is in the forefront of the world, ranking far higher than GDP in the world. If China's economic scale is calculated by the physical quantity, China should rank between the second and third in the world. 4. Great Power Trade Law The participation of a country's overall economy in world trade is closely related to its country size (including population, area and other factors) and inversely proportional. Due to the needs of their own development, the economic sectors of big countries participating in international trade are only a part of their total economic output, often a small part, and the vast majority of their economic sectors serve their own economies and are domestic demand-oriented economies. So generally speaking, the proportion of total import and export trade to GDP can reach a high level for a small country, such as the Netherlands, Singapore and other countries; But for a big country, such as the United States, Japan, Brazil and other countries, with the current level of economic and technological development, this ratio can not be too high. For example, in 2003, although the internationalization level of the United States and Japan was relatively high, it was about 20%, and that of China was as high as 60% in 2003. This is untenable, and it is entirely caused by distorted exchange rate factors. The degree of internationalization of China's economy should be below 20%, so the GDP corresponding to the total import and export trade of $850 billion in 2003 should be around $4.25 trillion. 5. According to the evaluation-exchange rate method, due to the diversity of the world, the degree of marketization varies greatly among countries, and the price level of each country is incomparable in many fields. Therefore, no matter what method is used to calculate GDP, there are many shortcomings. The exchange rate method tends to weaken the economic strength of countries with low degree of marketization, and the purchasing power evaluation method is not perfect, which is suspected of strengthening weak countries (this strengthening is "calculated" but not real). Evaluation-exchange rate method is to combine exchange rate method with purchasing power evaluation method and take its average value. This method has certain comparability and completeness. Although there are many inherent defects, I think this method is closer to reality than the simple exchange rate method or purchasing power evaluation method to calculate the economic scale of China.

In 2003, China's GDP was 1.42 trillion USD according to the exchange rate method, 59,000 USD according to the purchasing power evaluation method and (1.42+5.9)/2 = 36,600 USD according to the evaluation-exchange rate method.

Four of the above calculation methods are value measurement methods, and the conversion exchange rate is 8.28: 1 (exchange rate method); 1.97: 1 (purchasing power evaluation method); 2.75: 1 (Great Power Trade Law); 3.48: 1 (evaluation-exchange rate method). The premise of these methods is that the 2003 GDP data published by China is internationally comparable. If the data itself is wrong, then any conclusion calculated on this basis will be greatly discounted, and this possibility is objective in reality. Because the accounting of the tertiary industry is not in place, China's GDP is seriously underestimated. This problem is not caused by human factors, but by the lag of national economic accounting after economic transition. Judging from the evolution trend of world economic development, a country's industrial structure is closely related to its economic development level. For big countries, with the continuous development of national economy, the proportion of agriculture first decreases, and then the proportion of real economy such as agriculture, industry and construction decreases. Under this trend, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP has steadily increased. At present, the tertiary industry accounts for more than 70% of GDP in the United States, Japan and major western European countries, and the world average is around 60%, and India is also close to 50%. At present, the published result in China is 33%. If China is still in the era of planned economy, it is not impossible that there is a serious imbalance, but the reality is that China has carried out reform and opening up for 25 years, and its economic activities have been marketized, and the allocation of resources is played by the invisible hand of the market. From a macro point of view, the current economic activities in China are normal, and the economic activities themselves should conform to the world trend, but the record of the results of economic activities is not true. No matter from which angle, the development level of the tertiary industry in China will not be lower than that in India. Fundamentally speaking, the tertiary industry is the service industry. One is to serve the production activities, mainly the real economic sectors (such as commerce, transportation, real estate management, etc.). ), the second is to serve people's lives. China is much higher than India in both the total number of real economic sectors and people's living standards. Why is the service industry output lower than India? If this is the case, there will inevitably be a common phenomenon of "service difficulty" in China's service field, just like "difficulty in eating" and "difficulty in getting a haircut" in the early days of reform and opening up ... This is not the case now. The fact is that there are serious omissions in the accounting of the tertiary industry in China. If the proportion of tertiary industry in China is the same as that in India, China's GDP in 2003 will not be 1 1.7 trillion. Second, about the efficiency of China's economy Although there are many conclusions about the scale of China's economy, its trend is consistently good. In contrast, the evaluation of China's economic efficiency is more like looking at a kaleidoscope, and one person draws a conclusion. 1, China's economic competitiveness In China's real economy, the labor intensity of workers is one of the best in the world. Workers in this field bear several times the labor intensity of developed countries, enjoy the lowest wages in the world, provide the most abundant cheap goods, and ensure the strong market competitiveness of China products, which can be witnessed by China's export growth rate and world market share. From a global perspective, China's economic miracle is the miracle of China's export commodity prices, which was created by the lowest people in China. It is not unreasonable to say that China's economic miracle is the miracle of migrant workers in China. China's real economy is very competitive in the world, which is in sharp contrast with China's virtual economy, especially in areas where intellectuals gather, such as medical care, education and culture, and government services. In these fields, most of them are pampered, pay little, get too much, and enjoy too many preferential policies, which has seriously dragged down China's economy. The next economic reform must start from here. People here can also play the spirit of "migrant workers" and create the input-output ratio created by migrant workers. By the time China's overall economic competitiveness enters the forefront of the world. 2. Absurd misleading We can often see experts and scholars' comments on China's macroeconomic benefits from some academic journals, some of which can't stand scrutiny.

For example, according to a chairman, China consumes 0.42 tons of crude oil per 10,000 yuan of GDP, which is 2.3 times that of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 4 times that of Japan and even higher than that of India and Brazil.

"In 2003, China's GDP increased by 9. 1%, accounting for 4% of the world's total GDP; Steel consumption is 260 million tons, accounting for1/3 of the world's total consumption; Cement consumption is 820 million tons, accounting for1/2 of the world's total consumption; Energy consumption (including oil) accounts for 30% of the total world consumption. China's GDP growth of 1 000 US dollars consumes four times as much energy as that of the United States, seven times as much as that of French and 1.4 times as much as that of Japanese. )。 It can be seen that China's energy utilization efficiency is low and the waste is serious.

The deputy director of an academic committee of the Chinese Academy of Sciences pointed out that China consumes 4.3 times as much energy as the United States, 7.7 times as much as Germany and France, and 1 1.5 times as much as Japan (according to this calculation, the United States is still 2.7 times as much as Japan, which shows that the United States is far behind Japan. This is not an international joke! )……

Last year, China's GDP accounted for 4% of the world's total, but it consumed 7.4% of the world's oil, 3 1% of raw coal, 27% of steel, 25% of alumina and 40% of cement.

……

Judging from the subtext reflected in these words, the efficiency of China's economic activities is too low, only the world average level of110 to 1/6, which is far from Europe, America and Japan. Moreover, if compared in this way, China's macroeconomic benefits have been deteriorating for many years. It is not as good as it used to be, and it will not be as good as it is now. The fact is not so bad, the problem lies in the "comparison" of different categories. There is nothing wrong with China's GDP accounting for 4% of the world total, but that only refers to the result calculated at the current exchange rate. It is universally acknowledged that there are many shortcomings in calculating national strength by exchange rate method, especially for developing countries, which is suspected to be greatly low. China consumes 40% of the world's cement and 27% of its steel. These are substantial consumption, which mainly reflects the overall size and strength of China's economy. Compared with this, the GDP calculated by the exchange rate method is not suitable. If we have to compare, it is more appropriate to use the purchasing power of GDP to evaluate the value. China's current GDP purchasing power evaluation value accounts for about 12% of the world, so compared with the world average, the benefit of China's economic activities is about 1/3 to 1/2, which is far lower than that of the United States, Japan and Europe, but not much lower than that of other countries in the world except the United States, Japan and Europe.

In fact, in the past 20 years, China's GDP in the energy sector has quadrupled, while its energy consumption has only doubled, and its energy efficiency has been greatly improved, and considerable achievements have been made. In 2002, China's primary energy consumption was1480 million tons of standard coal, ranking second in the world. From 1980 to 2000, the average annual growth rate of GDP in China was as high as 9.7%, while the corresponding average annual growth rate of energy consumption was only 4.6%, far lower than the economic growth rate in the same period, and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption was only 0.47. In terms of energy efficiency, the energy consumption per unit of GDP is declining. At constant prices in 2000, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP in China decreased from 4.28 tons of standard coal in 1980 to 1.45 tons of standard coal in 2000. Accordingly, the GDP per ton of standard coal increased from 2335 yuan (the price in 2000) in 1980 to 6880 yuan in 2000. In 20 years, the energy consumption per unit output value decreased by 64%, and the average annual energy saving rate reached 4.6%. In the same period, the average energy consumption per unit output value in the world decreased by 19%, and that in OECD countries decreased by 20%. From the trend, no one can deny that China's macroeconomic benefits, like China's economic strength, are advancing on an upward track.

International Competitiveness, published by IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, has attracted the attention of governments all over the world and is one of the more authoritative judgments in the world. According to the latest ranking of international competitiveness of major countries and regions in the world published by IMD in 2002, the overall ranking of China in 2002 was 3 1, up two places from 5438+0 in 2006. Economic competitiveness rose from the seventh place in the previous year to the third place. The evaluation criteria adopted by IMD include economic performance, government efficiency, enterprise benefit and national infrastructure, and the index is ***3 14, which evaluates 49 countries and regions. According to the information published by IMD, the average level of international competitiveness in 2002 was 59.034, and 26 countries were above the average level, basically all developed countries. There are 23 countries (regions) below the average level, which are basically developing countries. China scored 52. 199, which was higher than the previous year, and the comprehensive ranking also rose by two places. IMD's evaluation is authoritative and objectively reflects the fact that China's economic competitiveness is rising. 3. The fragile service industry has developed for 25 years, and the competitiveness of China's real economy has been improved unprecedentedly. Detailed analysis is mainly caused by the low wages of workers in this field; China's service industry as a whole is not lacking in competitiveness. Among them, catering industry, residential service industry, commerce and other fields with high degree of marketization are not low in competitiveness. The areas with low competitiveness in China are precisely those where intellectuals gather, such as government departments, medical and health departments, universities, social and cultural departments and so on. These areas have the lowest degree of marketization, some are still in the shadow of planned economy, and some are in a state of neither donkey nor horse. The advantages of planned economy and market economy have not been absorbed, but the disadvantages have been carried forward. Although the services provided by people in these fields are not competitive, with their special status and means, their income is much higher than that of workers in the real economy. The income of workers in China is only 1/30 that of their American counterparts, so China products are very competitive, but the income of lawyers in China, doctors in China and civil servants in China are not 1:30 compared with their American counterparts. Compared with China's products, China's education expenses, medical expenses and lawyer's expenses are relatively high, so these fields are not competitive. Although the intellectuals in China have the highest voice for reform, the reform in their field is the most incomplete, lacking social fairness and justice. Why? Is there a shortage of doctors in China? Is there a shortage of teachers in China? Is there a shortage of civil servants in China? What is really lacking is the mechanism. The demand of market mechanism can create countless suppliers in a short time. In the field that needs reform most in China, we must completely break the protective shell, see the sunshine as soon as possible, get rid of mildew and show vitality. Only by implementing the laws of the real economy into the virtual economy can China's service industry stand firm and have competitive strength. Three. Several conclusions 1. The economic scale of China should be around 4 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world, with an annual growth rate of 8%. Considering the impact of RMB appreciation, it is estimated that the total economic output of China will be the same as that of the United States from 2025 to 2030.

2. The information provided by China's current exchange rate cannot be used for macro analysis, especially for international comparative research, so it is impossible to draw a conclusion that objectively reflects the reality of China.

3. The most vulnerable area of China's economy is the sector where intellectuals gather, and it is also the place where China needs drastic reform most.

4. China has entered a period of historical opportunities full of hope. From the perspective of world history, China is a country that no one can despise. In fact, under the leadership of China's * * * Production Party, China made remarkable achievements in the 20th century. Taking the century as the stage, comparing the ranking of world powers in the first century and the last century of the 20th century, we will find that among these countries, the United States has made the most outstanding progress, which has grown from a simple economic power to the only superpower in the world today, and is far ahead of any country in all fields. The original status of Britain, France, Germany and Japan has remained basically unchanged; /kloc-among several huge empires at the end of 0/9, the Austro-Hungarian Empire has already split and no longer exists. The Russian empire experienced two ups and downs, and its vitality was greatly damaged. It faces the fate of the Qing Empire in the19th century. The Ottoman Empire, which once lived in Europe, Asia and Africa, collapsed more thoroughly, and the rest of Turkey has long been ignored by the world. The Indian Empire is divided into three countries: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. These three countries are at odds with each other and often have wars. By horizontal comparison, only China has realized the modern transformation on the basis of the basic integrity of its original territory. Throughout history, the conclusion is that China made progress in the 20th century, second only to the United States, and was in the forefront of the world achievement list. From a historical perspective, China is undergoing a transformation from weak to strong and from poor to rich, which is a historic return and an irresistible trend. Recognizing this will not only help to restore national self-esteem and self-confidence, but also help us to communicate objectively and fairly with major countries in the world. A correct understanding of China's economic strength will help us to correct our mentality and face the future.