Food prices have changed, the price of meat and eggs has plummeted, the price of sheep is "too worrying", and firecrackers have a new saying.

Spring comes and winter comes, and 2022 is coming to an end. How did the agricultural product market perform in the last month? The shock of corn and wheat has intensified again, the price of pork and eggs has continued to fall, and the cattle and sheep market has not moved, but there is also good news of setting off firecrackers.

What the hell is going on? Let's take a look:

First, food prices will fluctuate and change.

Recently, there have been obvious market shocks in the corn and wheat markets. Affected by the peak of grain sales in the market and the unstable management mentality of farmers, grain prices change frequently.

Let's take a look at the corn market in 65438+February and 65438+June. Shandong's overall ups and downs are mixed, with many ups and downs. Some enterprises in Henan and Heilongjiang lowered their purchase prices. Specifically:

Shandong Huimin Chunhui rose 0.5 points to quote 1.49 yuan; Pingyuan Fuyang rose 0.5 points, and the price was 1.48 yuan; Linqing golden corn rose by 0.5 points, and the price was 1.438 yuan/kg; Changle Shengtai rose 0.5 points to quote 1.46 yuan; Chengwu fell by 0.5 point, 1.485 yuan/kg; Chengwu Dida fell 0.5 points, and the price 1.485 yuan/kg; Osawa Chengsheng dropped 0.5 point to quote 1.475 yuan/kg.

Hou Yuan, Mengzhou, Henan, fell 0.5 point, and the price was 1.495 yuan/kg; Tian Fei starch fell 0.3 point, and the price was 1.455 yuan/kg.

Heilongjiang Longfeng corn fell 0.5 points, the price 1.345 yuan/kg; Beijing Grain Longjiang fell 0.5 point to quote 1.34 yuan/kg.

At present, the corn market fluctuates greatly in the near future, and there are great differences between the two sides of the market. Mainly the favorable factors and unfavorable factors are evenly matched. When one side has the upper hand, there will be "up" or "down".

Favorable factors:

First, corn production has declined this year. In the three northeastern provinces, the yield of corn decreased and the sown area decreased, so the total yield of corn decreased. According to the statistics of MYsteel agricultural products, the corn output in 2022 was 257 million tons, 6.8 million tons less than that in 20021.

Second, agricultural products are reluctant to sell, mainly because the land input and means of production for planting corn this year are on the high side. Farmers are reluctant to sell corn when the price is high, and many people are still waiting for the price to rise.

Third, influenced by international factors, such as the world food crisis and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international trade volume of corn has a downward trend, which also has a certain supporting effect on domestic food prices.

In addition to advantages, the price of corn also has disadvantages:

First, it is currently at the peak of corn sales. Every year in 65438+February, all parties in the market are affected by funds, which is unfavorable to prices, that is, farmers need money for big consumption and repayment at the end of the year, and enterprises are short of funds for year-end final accounts; The withdrawal of bank currency is unfavorable to the grain market, including corn.

Second, traders have a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. Influenced by the lessons of corn trading last year, the mainstream price of corn is higher in North China 1.45- 1.52 yuan/kg, Shandong 1.45- 1.55 yuan/kg, and Northeast China 1.35-65 yuan/kg.

Regarding the market outlook, I personally think that from now until the end of February 2023, the price of corn is not motivated enough, and the decline is illogical, and the probability of sideways shocks is high, which will neither rise nor fall.

Second, the price of pork continues to decline, can it rise before the year?

People who often go to the market to buy food will certainly notice that the price of pork in the market has dropped recently, and it has dropped a lot. It is understood that pork prices in various places have dropped by 4% or so in 5 yuan compared with that in June165438+1October. The pork originally sold in 24 yuan is now 18, 19 yuan, and the price of some pigs is low.

According to the latest data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in the wholesale market of agricultural products in China is 30. 13 yuan/kg, which is 0.7% lower than yesterday. The average price in the wholesale market in China is RMB 5.065 per kg, which is quite cheap.

Today, I went to the local farmers' market (Suiling, Heilongjiang Province), with front leg meat 17 yuan/kg, ribs 23 yuan/kg, pork belly 18 yuan/kg and big bones 13 yuan/kg. Overall, pork is lower than that in June by about 4 yuan.

What is the reason for the decline in pork prices? Personally, there are three main reasons:

1, the price of pigs fell sharply.

It is understood that from the end of 10 to now, in less than two months, the price of pigs has dropped from the high of 14.2 yuan/kg to the present 9.575 yuan/kg, which is much lower than that of 4 yuan. It is normal for pork to lose 4 yuan/kg and 5 yuan.

The following is the price of live pigs in 65438+February 17, and the price of live pigs in 17 provinces fell again:

2. The consumption power of some residents has declined.

Although it is in the peak season of pork consumption, the consumption power of some families with reduced income due to economic factors has declined.

3. Traditional consumption energy is insufficient.

Although the price of meat has been cheaper recently, the pork per catty 18 and 9 yuan is still not low, which leads to about 30% less bacon in the south and less pigs in the north.

As for the price of pork before the Spring Festival, I personally think it will go up a little. Before the Spring Festival, the mainstream price is likely to return to 20-25 yuan/kg.

Mainly considering that in the last month, under the consumption expectation of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the pig price will rebound and rise, driving the pork price to rise.

Third, the price of eggs has fallen again.

Since the National Day, there has been a continuous and slow downward trend in the egg market. At present, the mainstream price of eggs has fallen below that of 6 yuan, and even "4 prefix" eggs have appeared in some places.

The egg market continues to maintain a weak trend today. Egg prices in Northeast China, North China, Central China, Northwest China and other provinces above 15 fell, with an overall drop of about 3 points to 1 minute.

At present, the mainstream price of eggs in Northeast China is 4.80-5.30 yuan/kg; 4.97-5.45 yuan/kg in North China; The mainstream price in East China is 5. 13-6.5 yuan/kg, Central China is 5.20-6. 15 yuan/kg, and Northwest China is 4.75-6.6 yuan/kg.

There is not much to say about the reasons for the drop in egg prices. In short, there are three main points:

First, the egg production capacity decreased, mainly due to the high stock of laying hens, which led to an increase in production capacity.

Second, meat consumption enters the peak season in winter, which has a certain substitution effect on egg consumption.

Third, it is currently in the traditional off-season of egg consumption. Every year 10 to around the Spring Festival, the consumption of eggs is relatively light.

At present, the performance of egg price has been in line with the previous analysis article on egg price, and the egg price fluctuated and fell. At present, the price of four-prefix eggs has appeared, and the average price is about 5.35 yuan/kg.

Regarding the market outlook, I personally think that 5 yuan/Jin should meet with strong support, and the downside space is already very limited, so farmers need not worry.

Fourth, the price of sheep is in a dilemma, which is too worrying!

The sheep industry in 2022 is really difficult. It is not surprising that some people in the market say that raising sheep to make money this year is a joke.

Why? Because the price of sheep has been falling from the beginning of the year to around August. Counting a sheep, it is about 200-300 yuan less than that at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the superimposed breeding cost increases, and the profit of raising sheep becomes extremely low.

I thought that after entering September, especially after entering the fourth quarter, driven by the peak consumption season, the price of sheep will increase obviously, but the market situation is not ideal and the fluctuation is not great.

The latest sheep price market shows that there are 530-550 male lambs and 500 female lambs in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. Jining eliminated ewes 12.3 yuan/kg, big rams 13.2 yuan/kg; Hulunbeier Mohji male lamb 30 kg 650 yuan/only;

Small tail Han sheep kebab 13.2 yuan/kg, fine wool mutton kebab 13.5 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 13.8 yuan/kg; Hengshui 30 kg male lamb 620 yuan/kg, female lamb 450 yuan/kg; Elimination of ewes 10 yuan/kg and rams 12.5 yuan/kg in Xiangcheng county; The price of sheep in Xinfu District, Xinzhou City, Shanxi Province 14.5 yuan/kg, and the price of sheep in Xuecheng District, Zaozhuang City, Shandong Province 16.0 yuan/kg.

Although the price of sheep is relatively low, the price of mutton is still high. The monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also showed that the beef in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 78.27 yuan/kg, down 0.1%from yesterday; Mutton is 68.35 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from yesterday.

Retail prices are higher everywhere, generally between 40-45 yuan/kg.

The market price of sheep is not good, mainly because: in recent years, many farmers have entered the sheep industry one after another, resulting in an increase in the number of sheep.

Statistics show that in 20 18 years, the number of sheep in China was 297140,000. After three years of continuous increase, 202 1 reached 3 1969000, an increase of 7.6%.

In addition, due to the influence of health factors in recent years, the income of some residents has declined and their consumption power has also declined, so the price of sheep has not been able to rise.

There is good news about setting off firecrackers.

Recently, an article in People's Daily, Building a Message to the Local Government: Setting off firecrackers is not appropriate, was widely collected by netizens. Many netizens in areas where firecrackers are forbidden said that it is estimated that firecrackers can be set off this year.

Here, where firecrackers are also prohibited, we can seriously consider this proposal and resume residents to set off firecrackers during the Spring Festival. Let's wait and see!

On this issue, I very much agree with the People's Daily's suggestion, because setting off fireworks and firecrackers is a traditional culture in China and a more meaningful form of celebration when we celebrate the Lunar New Year. This kind of fun is irreplaceable.

At the same time, over the years, the Chinese nation has different characteristics from other countries and nationalities, such as eating zongzi on the Dragon Boat Festival, eating jiaozi in the New Year, playing with dragon lanterns on the Lantern Festival and climbing mountains on the Double Ninth Festival. These are our national elements and should not be discarded.

I don't know what you think.

Dear friends, I wonder how much is a catty of pork, eggs, beef and mutton there? Is it forbidden to set off firecrackers there this year? Please share it with netizens all over the country for reference.