Do you think China property market is the last madness?

The secret of China property market only rising but not falling.

I had a drink with a classmate who runs a pawnshop last night. I asked my classmates, "How many houses and pavements did you buy?" "There are 22 houses with 12 pavement." The classmate replied ostentatiously. "How much did you spend?" Although students are multimillionaires, they can't put tens of millions of money on fixed assets! I did a mental arithmetic in my heart, and I doubt it! "Now buy a house, a fool to pay! You are still a businessman! " My classmates looked at me contemptuously. My classmates' words almost deafened me and made me dumbfounded. I quickly asked modestly. So, my classmates told me some strange and shocking words ... The following are all my classmates' words. Although the words and expressions are a little different, I still conveyed the basic meaning clearly. First, how to buy a house without paying? Classmate's words-you know, my pawn business depends entirely on Qian Shengqian. When I bought a house for the first time, although I was able to pay the full amount in one lump sum, I still didn't want so much cash to be weighed down by the house. At that time, "zero down payment" was popular, so I didn't spend a penny, and I bought a house with a loan of 6.5438+0.8 million (the loan period is one year). At the end of the year, you have to pay back the house payment and interest. I don't know. Am I lucky? Or am I unlucky! At that time, my funds were occupied by a company. For business, I not only can't afford to pay back the house, but also add a new loan. As a last resort, I found an old relationship-Gou Hui, the manager of the bank's credit department. When I put forward the request of "delaying the repayment of the house payment and adding a loan", I didn't expect the credit manager to smile mysteriously and agreed very readily. The credit manager gave me a simple idea: let my wife take out a loan to buy my house at twice the price, and the loan period is also one year. "Double loan, that is, double interest! Aren't you exploiting me? " I haven't reacted yet. "What should I do if I don't pay back at that time?" The credit manager is calm. "Ah ..." "It's no big deal to be foreclosed by the bank! The key point is that after removing taxes and fees, I still get170,000, spaces. No, I can't get this 1.7 million by myself. I have to give him at least 50 thousand. " Soon, I reacted. So, I gave the credit manager a knowing smile ... this is my first experience of buying a house. My later experience of buying a house was similar to this, that is, I resolutely bought a house with a bank loan and didn't pay back a penny; Then, if you meet an investor who doesn't know the truth (investors are actually idiots) to buy a house, then sell it to him at a high price. If no investors buy a house all the time, they will continue to lend their houses to themselves at a higher price, and continue to use the bank's money to repay the bank's debts. Besides, I run a pawnshop, and my relationship with the bank is not comparable to that of ordinary people. Ordinary people buy a house, most of them choose a 20-year mortgage, but I always borrow for one year and repay the principal and interest when it expires. In this way, you don't have to pay the monthly payment. After the loan expires, I only need to do a "paper" to transfer the loan. Actually, I don't have to pay a penny. Second, there is such a ridiculous thing in real life. Is it a "fairy tale"? Classmate's words: Brother! I tell you these heartfelt words because I think you are right. How can you not believe me? How can you trust me? Author's speech: Let's talk about a few practical examples! Classmate's words: Do you know how Wang made a fortune? The author spoke: "Then tell me." Wang Ermazi is another classmate of mine, and now he is a billionaire in real estate development. Classmate's words-then I'll talk about it. Think that year, Wang Er pockmarked that down and out! Even the registered capital of his registered company was temporarily lent to him by me. Now, despite the superficial scenery, Asako Wang Er has got the money from the bank. The money for repairing the house was paid in advance by the builder. In a word, he is an out-and-out karate master. After the house is repaired, Wang Tong often holds an "internal subscription meeting" before the official opening. This internal subscription, in fact, is that Wang Ermazi called internal employees of the company and some real estate speculators I am familiar with (or simply some "copies of ID cards" collected from job fairs) to buy houses in their names, all of which are bank loans. This is the so-called "developers hoarding houses". And the transaction price quoted to the bank must be 30% higher than the actual internal transaction price. Why? Because the loan to buy a house requires a down payment of 20%! For example, if you want to recover 6.5438+0 million yuan, you must borrow from the bank at the house price of 6.5438+0.3 million yuan. In this way, the money given to you by the bank is: 1.3 million× 0.8 =1.04 million; The money you actually put in your pocket is:1.040,000-40,000 (the "benefit fee" for relevant bank personnel) = 1 10,000. In this way, through the internal subscription before the opening, Wang Ermazi has actually successfully recovered all the investment and transferred all the risks to the bank. At this time, Wang began to advertise to sell the house, and returned the "bank loan for land purchase" and "advance payment from the builder for house repair". The author's speech: how to operate in the later stage? Classmate's words-how can you be so stupid! Anyone who is a little smarter can think that the latter operation method is actually the same as my real estate speculation method, that is: "If you meet an investor who doesn't know the truth (the investor is actually an idiot) to buy a house, then sell it to him at a high price; If no investor has been buying a house, then he will continue to lend himself the house price increase and continue to use the bank's money to pay off the bank's debts. " However, since the mortgage down payment has been recovered, the subsequent operation does not need to increase the price by 30% every time, but only according to the original increase of the property market (that is, the annual increase is about 14%). What? What if the price increase is not enough to repay the loan interest? Joke: When have you ever seen the rising rate of housing prices in China property market lower than the loan interest of that year? Look! This is that the price of China property market can only go up but not down; And the real reason why the price increase can't be lower than the loan interest in that year! ! It's ridiculous to think about it. Some scholars actually said, "the rising construction cost and land price are the reasons for the soaring housing prices." This is nonsense! In fact, "financial cost" is the bulk of housing prices, accounting for at least 50% of the current housing prices. Take the collapsed Lotus Riverside Garden in Shanghai as an example. Published online, the floor price is less than 604 yuan/square meter, and the construction cost is less than 1300 yuan/square meter (in fact, the construction cost published online is not accurate. The building quality of the elevator apartment in the municipal court should be better than it, and the construction cost should not exceed 1000 yuan/square meter. Why do developers have to sell 14000 yuan/square meter? Can't you sell lower and earn less? The answer is no, for the simple reason that "financial games" have costs, and every time they are operated like this, the price of the house will increase. Only by increasing the price continuously can the above operations have room for survival. Therefore, the Lotus Riverside Garden sold 7000 yuan/square meter the year before last, and sold 10000 yuan/square meter last year. It will sell for 14000 yuan/square meter this year. As the saying goes, "tofu dishes have become the price of meat." This is the price of "financial games"! There is a saying that tells the truth of the current China property market, "The house is used for speculation, not for living; Commercial housing is sold to banks, not to ordinary people. " Old classmate, please think about it. In the current property market, the house price has obviously exceeded the actual purchasing power of ordinary people (that is to say, the house will never be sold). Why do house prices keep rising? Moreover, what about "quantity and price rise together"? This is the reason for it! 3. Few phenomena can represent the overall situation of China property market? Classmate's words-old classmate, you are too ignorant. Please see: Li Shubiao case:1September 8, 1999 to 20041October 8, 2004, Li Shubiao, former director of the housing provident fund management center in Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, defrauded 44 provident fund loans and bank loans, involving an amount of1200,000 yuan. Kang Ming case: Around 2000, Henan Zhengzhou Kang Ming Real Estate Co., Ltd. repeated more than 690 mortgage loans in ICBC, Bank of Communications, China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank through suite 4 14 of Dongming Garden, and withdrew at least 200 million yuan from the bank. Yao Kangda case: From 2002 to the first half of 2003, China Industrial and Commercial Bank Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Sub-branch issued mortgage loans of 7 1 4 1 0,000 yuan to "Yao Kangda" for speculation 1 0,28 housing units. Senhao Fake Mortgage Case:1From 1997 to the first half of 2002, Beijing Huayunda Real Estate Development Company defrauded Bank of China Beijing Branch, Bank of Beijing Zhongguancun Sub-branch and Bank of Beijing Zhanzhan Road Sub-branch by using fake mortgage, totaling1620,000 yuan. (Please see "Beijing's Biggest Fake Mortgage Fraud Shocked the Housing Market"/GB///GB/ 1045/9255894.html) Case of Guangzhou Branch of China Construction Bank: In 2002, the National Audit Office randomly checked the housing mortgage loans of eight branches of China Construction Bank in Guangzhou, and found out the fake mortgage 1 100 million yuan. Only a deputy director of Shanwei Public Security Bureau of Guangdong Province defrauded the mortgage loan of Guangzhou Fangcun Sub-branch of CCB of 37.93 million yuan. Qu case: In 2006, Lujiazui Sub-branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank found that the mortgage loan of 65.438+0.26 billion yuan of personal property was false, and the loan agent was Qu. Later, it was found that the mortgage related to Qu was as high as 9 1, involving about 400 million yuan. In order to recover the problem loan, the bank had to entrust the housing agency to sell the mortgaged property. Tongtai case: In 2006, Beijing Tongtai Real Estate Company was suspected of using 87 purchase contracts signed by fake owners to defraud the bank of 67 million yuan. Chengdu fictional real estate loan fraud case: From 2005 to 2008, the suspect Tang colluded with the staff of Chengdu Housing Management Bureau to apply for real estate license and defraud loans. Find out more than 0/00 sets of real estate license/kloc, involving nearly 20 million yuan! And the situation is still developing further. In addition, this year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission explicitly requested that "loan issuance must be used to meet the effective credit demand of the real economy and prevent credit funds from flowing into the property market". However, 400 billion yuan is still flowing into the real estate market ... Old classmates, please think about it, why do so many such things happen? Why do banks all over the country lend to real estate developers knowing that they are fake mortgages? Are all bank officials fools? Actually, bank officials are not stupid at all. The reason is that bank insiders and developers are actually accomplices in collusion. Some insiders involved in this kind of operation never want to make money for the bank by paying the loan interest by the buyers. Frankly speaking, they are participating in the sharing of stolen goods-they steal ill-gotten gains with developers and pass the risks on to the national bank, and the real buyers pay the bill. Once the real buyer can't buy this huge order, the bank will have a crisis. At this time, the people of the whole country will pay the bill, and the state must inject capital from banks to eliminate bad debts. Where does the national money come from? Print money! What was the result? Inflation, soaring prices, old people's money is worthless, or people's money has been robbed, who robbed it? It was robbed by the state to stop the leakage and blocked some big holes eaten by developers and banks. This hole is so big that it will be an ugly scar if it is blocked, which will hurt the people forever. So I said-the real estate industry has become a prop for relevant units and departments to unite to divide up the country's money (in fact, the deposits of ordinary people). What's the big deal about breaking the rules? Bank officials are not afraid! As long as the formalities on paper are complete, I am not responsible. What does it matter even if the mortgage loan is fake? Besides, banks are backed by the state, even if they lose money. Anyway, bank officials can make money now. As for bank failures in the future, the state will naturally take care of them, which is the business of the next bank official. No wonder the bad debt rate of China banks is above 40%! It turns out that in China, the biggest corruption is in banks! ! 4. If it is a common phenomenon, why are no developers repossessed? Classmate's words-there are many reasons, the simple one is: 1, you don't care about the news of the real estate industry. For example, in the case of Qu Huping, the Lujiazui Sub-branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank took over the building and had to become a "landlord"; 2. The case didn't explode, because there was an accomplice of the developer in the bank, and the cover work was done well. How to do the cover work? It's very simple-once the debt is repaid, the developer will sell (lend) the house to other "copies of ID cards" at a higher price together with the "related households within the bank" (in fact, the house is still in the hands of the developer). So developers will never get it back. Despite this operation, house prices will continue to rise, and will soon be far beyond the actual affordability of ordinary people (which means that the house will never be sold). However, such an operation will always be legal if it is only seen from the official procedure and only from the superficial paper procedure. This is also the reason why bank officials dare to cover for developers-because in the current banking system, as long as the surface paper procedures are complete, bank officials have no responsibility.