How many years does it take for Jieyang to surpass Shantou?

Jieyang cannot surpass Shantou. The recent situation is that Jieyang has developed rapidly and Shantou has accelerated its development. Jieyang and Shantou are not competitors at the same level in terms of popularity, geographical conditions, development history, development status and policy opportunities.

Since Shantou opened its port, its economic development has not slowed down, and it has been the center of eastern Guangdong for more than 100 years. Although today's economic aggregate is faster than Jieyang's, it is because Shantou's humanities are not well done rather than objective factors. Serious collusion between officials and businessmen in Shantou led Zhu Rongji to order the prohibition of business contacts between all localities and Shantou, but this was only the result of a specific period. In 2000, Shantou's economy gradually declined, with a negative growth in the following year. After the recession, Shantou's economic development period will begin to appear at 20 10.

The following is my preliminary estimate of Shantou's GDP in the next few years:

In 2008 (current situation), it was 97.478 billion yuan, with an increase of 65.438+00.5%, second only to Zhuhai, ranking 1 1 in the whole province.

In 2009, it was about 1 176 billion yuan, an increase of 1 1.4%, surpassing Zhuhai and Zhanjiang, ranking ninth in the province.

20 10 is about140.9 billion yuan growth 15.6%, surpassing Maoming and ranking eighth in the province.

20 1 1, about183.5 billion yuan increase 19. 1%, surpassing Jiangmen and Huizhou, ranking sixth in the province.

In 20 12, it increased by about 235.6 billion yuan 18.55, surpassing Zhongshan and ranking fifth in the province.

It is inevitable to be among the top five in the province, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan and Shantou.

If Shantou can continue the above momentum, it will surpass Dongguan on 20 17 in five years, because Dongguan has abnormal development and insufficient backward advantages, and it is even unpredictable to surpass Foshan in a short time.

The following is my forecast of the economic aggregate of Guangdong's top five in the last five years on 20 12:

City 201220132014201520162017.

Guangzhou11365128751425157841724318896

Shenzhen104871169813159147981633517965.

Foshan 72158136 897510021157613214.

Dongguan 44365012 5433 589763416855

Shantou 2356 3084 3876 4754 61127058

Why did I expect Dongguan's economic growth to slow down since 2009? In addition to the lack of late-comer advantage, its economy will inevitably grow negatively in 2009, and the serious consequence of negative growth is that the economy has fallen into a difficult period of development for ten years.

Having said that, I just want to clarify that Jieyang is obviously unable to catch up with Shantou in terms of rapid development.

I'm chaozhou people and I'm in Guangzhou.