What do ordinary people not know about the COVID-19 epidemic?

I swear, if someone tries to use the mortality rate as a reason not to take all possible measures to prevent the spread, I will go crazy.

I married a statistician. I have heard all the jokes. However, the fact is that you can't refute it with data. You can argue about the meaning of data in context, but you can't argue about absolute numbers.

This is what people don't understand. They think that the death rate of 3% is a "good chance", which leads to this stupid view: "Only complications die of coronavirus pneumonia-19". I have heard the most dangerous lie: "coronavirus pneumonia-19 is listed as a death certificate when the death rate is only 6%. All people suffering from asthma, hypertension, diabetes and other chronic diseases should raise their hands, especially obesity. Guess what? You have complications. You won't be in that 6% range.

This 6% means that there are no other factors limiting the patient's life span. Everyone who died of heart disease died of a damn heart disease while fighting colon cancer. If not, they won't die. Trying to blame the systemic inflammatory syndrome caused by coronavirus pneumonia-19 infection on * * * disease is like trying to argue that all wood will burn eventually-it's not sparks's fault.

But I digress. What people don't understand is the nature of scale. As I said elsewhere, coronavirus pneumonia-19 is now more dangerous than AIDS. This is a fact. Why? Because in absolute terms, coronavirus pneumonia-19 killed more Americans in a week than HIV/AIDS did in a year.

It doesn't matter if the AIDS mortality rate is close to 100%. The death rate from lightning stroke is only about 10%.

What determines the danger of a situation to the community is its infectivity. That's why the last news report about the epidemic type B coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV)) was less threatening, although the mortality rate was as high as 35%-19 times of the "alarmist" coronavirus pneumonia. How many people in the world died of MERS? About 900 people. COVID-19 in Orange County, California has more deaths than itself.

A percentage of a large number is a large number. It's that simple. Trump at least understands this. When he told bob woodward the early estimate of 5% mortality rate, even that guy knew that the total number of medical staff in our hospital was less than1000000 (the real one was American hospital, 2020 | aha), which was 330 million years, more than ten times that of 5%. That's just a dead man.

So, let's be conservative. We assume that the national infection rate is only 15% and the mortality rate is only 2%.

Wait, that's just the death of some old people and patients. Let's calculate the total number of inpatients we expect.

(330m/ 100000)= 3300。 Multiply by 3 13. Round off. Yes, this has exceeded the total capacity of American hospitals, just because of one situation. People will still get sick for other reasons. Go ahead and start for a year or two. It doesn't matter.

The total number of inpatients in the United States is about 36 million each year. During this time, they usually run at 65% capacity.

Do you know what this is about? A small part of a large number is a large number, which is limited. This is the meaning of size.

15000 Americans die of AIDS every year. It is transmitted through blood, and the high-risk contact, such as inserting a blood-filled cannula into your hand, translates into a seroconversion rate of about 1%.