RMB depreciation 1 1,000 points. How much will it cost if it is 65,438+00?

The first category: the stock market is implicated.

Some stock analysts said that in history, the trend of RMB has a high correlation with A shares. Under the general trend of RMB appreciation, RMB depreciation may be accompanied by the decline of A shares.

There are two related reasons: on the one hand, the depreciation of RMB leads to the decline in the valuation of local currency assets, which leads to the weakening of financial, real estate and other related sectors and drags down the overall market; On the other hand, once the expectation of RMB depreciation is formed, it will lead to the outflow of hot money and the liquidity environment in which A shares are located will be tightened rapidly.

Some agency reports pointed out that the sharp depreciation of RMB may bring a greater financial burden to aviation enterprises and some real estate enterprises with heavy overseas financing burden, which will further affect the valuation of related stocks and even the sales price of real estate in some areas.

Coping strategies: Some analysts pointed out that from the experience of 20 12, the performance of defensive industries such as public utilities, telecommunications and medical care is not affected by macro uncertainty and currency fluctuations.

The second category: real estate investors.

There is a "coincidence" that the assets of people who own real estate will shrink: the RMB has appreciated for nine consecutive years, and the real estate price in China has also risen for nine consecutive years.

In 2005, after the RMB began to appreciate, there was a clear signal: long-term appreciation against the US dollar.

Theoretically, a large amount of US dollars will enter China and be converted into RMB assets to avoid the relative depreciation of the US dollar. After these dollars enter, they exist in the form of some kind of assets. Most of them are buying real estate. One of the reasons for the sharp rise in house prices in the past few years is the appreciation of RMB. In this process of appreciation, people who own real estate, their assets appreciate rapidly. The expectation of real estate appreciation has stimulated more people's desire to buy a house.

If the RMB depreciates, some investors worry that assets will be withdrawn from real estate, especially the funds that poured into China from overseas in the early days will flow out of China due to the devaluation of the RMB, or they will not dare to enter the China market easily again, thus boosting the price of domestic housing assets in various ways.

Coping strategy: Some analysts said that for third-and fourth-tier cities, the possibility of falling house prices is greater, and it is not suitable for shooting at present. A better way is to wait and see.

▌ The third category: international students

For students studying in the United States, this means that the same amount of RMB is exchanged for much less foreign exchange than before. According to bankers, the sharp drop of RMB in this round also made some parents of international students feel panic. There are also nearly more parents who exchange dollars than usual 10%.

Coping strategy: buy in batches and share risks. Experts in the industry suggest that those customers who intend to use foreign exchange in the short term can observe the exchange rate fluctuations for a few days, find a relatively low position, and share the risks in batches. Especially for customers who are interested in studying abroad, the amount of foreign exchange funds is relatively large, so they can exchange foreign exchange for foreign currency financing first.

▌ The fourth category: Haitao people

The overseas purchasing market is hot, and price is one of the key factors. The commodity prices of overseas Haitao are generally about 30% cheaper than those purchased by domestic counters, and some can even be half cheaper, which is why many Haitao people flock to it. However, if the RMB depreciates, many Haitao people will feel "lost" because the prices of some overseas goods they buy will rise.

Coping strategy: Under normal circumstances, Haitao is often divided into two settlement methods: foreign currency entry and RMB entry. Foreign currency entry means that credit card consumption is settled in foreign currency, and cardholders need to repay in foreign currency; If you don't have foreign currency on hand, you need to purchase foreign exchange in RMB for repayment. If the cardholder has enough foreign currency in hand, it will be repaid directly in foreign currency, which does not involve the increase of cost.

▌ Category V: outbound tourists.

According to the current fluctuating RMB closing price, compared with 65,438+June before RMB depreciation in February-June, 2004, it takes about 10000 US dollars to exchange 1700 yuan. It costs about RMB 3 100 to exchange 100 euros, and RMB 3,000 to exchange100 pounds. The cost of outbound travel is facing an increase.

Coping strategy: It is more cost-effective to purchase foreign exchange first. The financial planner reminded that many people like to shop with credit cards when traveling abroad. If the renminbi is appreciating, they can still pay less if they delay repayment. However, if the RMB continues to depreciate, it is best to consider exchanging all the cash before going abroad.

▌ Category VI: Large export enterprises.

Theoretically, RMB depreciation is indeed beneficial to exports, and some small export enterprises that can settle foreign exchange immediately may benefit from it. However, foreign trade enterprises with large trading volume may find it difficult to feel the positive impact of this round of depreciation because they have locked the exchange rate with the bank in advance.

Coping strategies: Analysts said that in order to reduce the risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations, foreign trade enterprises need to lock in exchange rate risks through some foreign exchange derivatives, such as forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange, foreign exchange swaps and foreign exchange options. In order to avoid risks, the strategy of import and export enterprises is simple: import enterprises only need to postpone the purchase of foreign exchange as much as possible, because the US dollar will become cheaper and cheaper compared with the RMB.

▌ The seventh category: enterprises that do more RMB.

In recent years, with the steady appreciation of RMB against the US dollar, domestic enterprises have created more RMB in order to ensure stable export income, and some enterprises have borrowed money to bet on the appreciation of RMB. Although this magnifies the gains brought by RMB appreciation, it also intensifies the losses brought by RMB depreciation.

With the cumulative decline of the RMB against the US dollar this year, more and more investors who bet on the appreciation of the RMB have suffered losses. Those enterprises and individuals who use the popular "target redeemable forward contract" method to hedge the RMB risk have huge book losses.

▌ Class VIII: Speculators who come to invest in China.

For a long time, a large amount of foreign capital has been wandering in China to make money.

There is a joke: An American eats and drinks in China, and when he leaves, he changes the remaining money into dollars, which is equivalent to eating and drinking for one year for free. If the RMB depreciates, offshore RMB speculators will suffer heavy losses.