The core problem of real estate is the big bubble! The most stringent tuning, what signal is released?

Is there a bubble in China real estate?

Recently, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at the press conference of the State Council Office:

"The core problem in the real estate field is still a relatively big bubble", which is the last word and sets the tone for the current real estate market in China.

"Many people buy houses not for living, but for investment speculation, which is very dangerous", which is also an unprecedented warning issued by relevant parties to real estate investment speculation.

Obviously, restraining the real estate financial bubble has become a new policy orientation.

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How high is the real estate bubble?

There are many indicators to measure the real estate bubble, but the leverage ratio of residents (total debt of residents/national GDP) can best explain the problem.

According to the report released by the National Finance and Development Laboratory, in 2020, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents was 62.2%, which was 6. 1 percentage point higher than that in 20 19, and exceeded the international average.

At present, the leverage ratio of China residents is still lower than that of the United States and Britain, but it has surpassed that of Japan and Germany.

Compared with the international level, the leverage ratio of China residents is not exaggerated, but the growth rate is so fast that other economies can't catch up.

In 2000, the leverage ratio of residents was only 5%, which rose to 18% in 2008 and reached 39.9% again in 20 15.

It will soar to 62.2% in 2020, about twice as much as 20 13, and close to 3.5 times as much as in 2008.

The soaring leverage ratio of residents means that residents' debt continues to expand, and the main source of residents' debt is mortgage.

As house prices rise and mortgages increase, the leverage ratio of residents naturally keeps hitting new highs.

Once the income growth rate is less than expected, or there is a significant correction in house prices, financial risks will follow.

As said at this meeting:

This is why the government has repeatedly stressed the need to curb the real estate bubble.

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How to restrain the real estate financial bubble?

For a long time, the regulation of the property market has often been dominated by traditional means such as purchase restriction, price restriction and sales restriction. Now, the regulation of the property market has been upgraded in an all-round way, aiming at the seven inches of land and credit.

"New three sets of combination boxing" is coming to the fore.

First, the "five red lines" of real estate have been born.

Among these five red lines, three are aimed at housing financing, the other two are aimed at bank loans, and all five red lines point to the tendency of real estate financialization.

Are these five red lines useful?

We have seen that after the introduction of the three red lines of housing financing, many large housing enterprises have suffered the impact of the capital chain. Less than three months after the introduction of the two red lines of mortgage financing, mortgage interest rates in various places have risen accordingly.

Second, the centralized land supply system reappears in rivers and lakes, and 22 key cities bear the brunt.

Recently, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a document to put forward new regulatory requirements for the way of transferring residential land in 22 key cities, and implemented a "two centralized" land supply policy, with no more than three centralized announcements issued throughout the year and centralized organization of transfer activities.

Land can only be provided three times a year. How useful is it?

Large-scale centralized land supply can provide sufficient expectations for social land supply, limit the "hunger marketing" game of local governments, and greatly increase the short-term financial pressure of housing enterprises, losing the speculation space of "land king".

Of course, this system will benefit large-scale housing enterprises with sufficient funds and low debt ratio, and the future development space of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is bound to be further squeezed.

Third, the containment of commercial loans and consumer loans is unprecedented.

Commercial loans, as the name implies, are used for business operations and do not necessarily flow into investment fields such as the stock market and the property market. However, since last year, due to the inversion of interest rates, operating loans in many cities have been unprecedentedly hot, which has become one of the important factors to boost housing prices.

It takes more thunder than rain to curb commercial loans. We will wait and see what the result will be.

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How big is the impact of curbing the real estate bubble?

It must be recognized that curbing the real estate bubble does not mean suppressing housing prices. Soaring house prices is not a good thing, and plunging is not a policy option.

The problem is usually complicated.

On the one hand, real estate has always been a sharp weapon to stimulate economic growth, and it is also an important pillar of local government land finance. This dependence is difficult to alleviate in the short term.

On the other hand, if house prices rise too fast, it will bring potential financial risks. /kloc-Japan's real estate bubble burst in the 1990s and the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, all of which are lessons from the past.

Therefore, the key to curb the real estate bubble is to maintain market stability, not only to curb the sharp rise in housing prices, but also to prevent a sharp decline.

This determines the general tone of future property market regulation.

For hot first-and second-tier cities, it is a reversal mode. As long as there is an upward trend in house prices, we will try our best to regulate them. Failure once is twice, failure twice is three times, until the market is stable.

Shenzhen is a typical example of this. This time, the introduction of the second-hand housing guidance price surprised many people. The guiding price is nothing new, but it is fatal that the guiding price of 30% discount will become the reference standard of bank mortgage, which can be described as a radical move.

If the property market in Shenzhen remains hot, it is not impossible to take the lead in levying property tax.

After all, the property market in China has been highly differentiated, just like the stock market, which is just a "structural bull market". Big cities are the key to the problem and the main battlefield to curb the real estate financial bubble.

"Solving the outstanding housing problem in big cities" has been included in 20021eight key tasks.

Everything has just begun. All big cities will face a regulatory storm next.