Advantages and disadvantages of population aging

Germany is the country with the highest aging population in Europe, and more than one fifth of the population is over 65 years old. Worldwide, its population is aging second only to Japan. Statistics show that in 2065,438+00, the population of Germany was about 865,438+08,000, of which 65,438+05 was under one seventh, the lowest in Europe, second only to Japan and lower than Germany in the world. According to the current birth rate, the population problem in Germany will become more and more serious in the future: after 40 years, the population will decrease by120,000, as low as 70 10/0,000.

The aging population has a deepening influence on Germany's economic and social life, and the social structure is also changing. The potential of German economic growth is weakened; The economic burden of the public is getting heavier and heavier; The social security fund will face an unprecedented crisis; This has led to the widening gap between urban and rural areas, rising unemployment rate, social and psychological problems and other adverse consequences. In 2009, 2.3 million Germans needed care, and this number will increase to about 3.3 million in 2030.

Germany is one of the earliest countries in the world to systematically deal with aging. After decades of development, it has become a veritable model of welfare state. The law that came into effect on 20 12 stipulates that the age of retirees will gradually transition from 65 to 67; The German ruling party led by Chancellor Angela Merkel has also drafted a bill to impose an additional "age tax" on those over the age of 25 who have income, so that these young workers can help the country cope with the imminent pressure of providing for the aged.

Severe aging in Germany

Germany has entered an aging society since 1980s. Statistics show that the average age of Germans in 1980 was 37. 1 year, which was 2.2 years (6.3%) higher than that in 1970. However, the average age of 1970 is 34.9 years, which is almost the same as that of 1960. Compared with 1980, 1990 increased in .7 years and 1.4 years in 2000. 1980 The reasons for the relatively slow growth of the average age from 2000 to 2000 come from the foreign population and the unification of East and West Germany. After digesting these two factors, the year of 20 10 is 2.6 years older than that of 2000.

Germany is one of the most aging countries in the world. In 20 10 years, the average life expectancy of Germans reached 79.80 years, including 77.70 years for men and 82.74 years for women. According to the figures of the Federal Statistical Office in 20 10, the population over 60 reached 21700,000, accounting for 26.6% of the total population, of which the population over 65 was1600,000, accounting for 19.6% of the total population. It is predicted that the population over 60 in Germany will reach 36.2% in 2030 and even exceed 40.9% in 2050. At present, the elderly over 65 years old account for 265,438+0% of the German population. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of elderly people over 65 will increase from about160,000 to 24 million. By 2060, this proportion will reach about 34%. At present, 1 person in every five people in Germany is an elderly person over the retirement age of 65. By 2030, there will be 1 person over 65 in every four people, and by 2060, this number will rise to 1 person in every three people.

China Economic Times reporter once saw a warm scene of a middle-aged couple crossing the road with five children. The oldest is over 10 years old, and the youngest is still lying in a unicycle. However, my German colleague shook his head with a wry smile. He told me a proverb-"You can imagine the opposite" to illustrate that the present situation is only a special case. In fact, in Germany, what we see is indeed the "opposite situation": Lufthansa flight attendants are "sisters-in-law"; The waiter in the hotel is an old man; Most drivers who rent cars are elderly people.

The population of Germany has been decreasing since 2003, and the main reason for the change of population structure is the low birth rate. According to statistics, German women only gave birth to 1.4 children on average. In 2006, the number of deaths was 65,438, 440,000 more than the number of births. It is estimated that by 2030, the total population of Germany will drop from the current 82.5 million to 78 million. With the decrease of population, the problem of aging in Germany is becoming more and more prominent. Sommer, head of the Federal Statistical Office, pointed out that since the 1960s, more and more German women have stopped being mothers. The reason for this situation is that Desi doesn't have enough nurseries, and many primary schools close in the afternoon. In 2008, 65,438+065,438+0% of women over 60 had no children, while the proportion of women in the 40-44 age group was 265,438+0%. According to the data of the Federal Statistical Office, the population of Germany will be reduced to 65-70 million between now and 2060. With the aging society becoming more and more serious and the birth rate declining, German society will face great challenges.

Because the natural balance (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) is negative, the German economy is facing great challenges in the labor market, and the growth rate may drop sharply in the next decade. According to the OECD's 20 12 German Economic Report, in the long run, the average growth rate of the German economy will remain at a low level of 1.5%, and it may even drop to 1% after 10, mainly due to the rapid aging of the population and the subsequent decline in the number of potential laborers.

OECD Secretary-General Gurria said at the press conference that Germany needs structural reforms in the labor market, tax system and energy policy in order to remain rich in the future.

The researchers predict that during the period from 20 16 to 2025, the annual employment of OECD will increase by 0.5% on average, while the employment of Germany will decrease significantly during the same period. By the mid-1930s, the proportion of people under 5 years old and over 64 years old in Germany/KLOC-0 will rise from the current 5 1% to 74%.

OECD economists demand that the German government carry out reforms, increase the number of employed people, and obtain professionals by letting more women work full-time and extending the retirement age. Therefore, Germany needs to reform its tax and social security system. For example, reduce the tax incentives for single-worker families, and at the same time invest in kindergartens with good services and low prices.

Gurria said that Germany's economic growth rate in 20 12 is expected to be only 0.4%. The pillars of Germany's economic growth in the future are strengthening domestic demand and improving labor potential. OECD suggested that Germany relax the harsh regulations on architects, lawyers and other service industries, not only directly subsidize them, but also promote scientific research and development through tax reduction and exemption.

The labor force will also form a gap. Although the harmful effects of the current aging population are offset by the increasing participation of women and elderly workers, Coase, a researcher at the Kiel Institute (IFW), one of Germany's six major economic research institutes, predicts: "The reduction of the number of employed people will weaken the potential of Germany's economic growth in the long run. The annual growth rate in the future should be around 1.2%, while in 2000 it was 1.5%. " The Federal Labor Office predicts that the labor shortage in Germany will reach 7 million by 2025, and foreign talents must be introduced on a large scale.

More and more retired people will have an impact on public finances. According to the data of the German Federal Statistical Office, in the past 10 years, Germany was in a state of negative population growth for most of the time. At this rate, fewer and fewer young people need to take on more old people. At present, there are about 2.3 million elderly people in Germany who need care, of which 6.5438+0.5 million are mainly aged at home, and another 800,000 choose institutions to provide for the elderly. In view of the rapid development of aging in Germany, Ernst &; The survey conducted by Young in September of 20 1 1 concluded that by 2020, 900,000 people in Germany will choose pension institutions. In other words, 654.38+10,000 old-age beds need to be added in ten years, and this investment alone needs 177 billion euros.

The aging population leads to the increase of social security expenditure, and the fund guarantee of social insurance system will face great challenges. Colin Holtz, director of the Berlin Institute of Population and Development, said: "As the German baby boomers enter retirement age, Germany's social security fund will face an unprecedented crisis, and today's social security system will be unsustainable because of lack of funds. Even if the birth rate can be increased, the absolute number of newborns will continue to decline, because the number of women of childbearing age is getting less and less. "

The working group of the German Federal Parliament recently put forward an "age tax" proposal, that is, every German who has reached the age of 25 will pay a certain amount in proportion to his income and establish a reserve fund to ensure the rising pension expenditure in the future. The reason of the working group is that the baby boomers born in 1950s and 1960s will retire around 2030, when the medical and nursing expenses will be greatly increased.

The birth of "age tax" stems from people's concern about the excessive burden of social security expenditure in an aging society. Because it involves complex and sensitive issues of political and economic fairness, its feasibility remains to be demonstrated. The proposal has also been criticized by the ruling party and the opposition party many times.

The German government has realized that the aging of the population will not only lead to a series of problems such as the decline of national economic productivity, the increase of tax burden, the increase of young people's burden, and the shortage of labor force, but also deepen the social generation gap, produce more elderly people with difficulties, and affect social harmony. The shortage of professionals and nursing staff in nursing homes in Germany shows that the demographic changes characterized by aging have begun to have an impact on Germany's social economy. Some analysts believe that the biggest challenge facing Germany in the next few years is not the European debt crisis and energy shortage, but how to deal with the aging population. German ministries and commissions are working together to formulate a "population policy" program to make a long-term plan for Germany to deal with the aging population. Merkel presided over an expert meeting on population aging and invited representatives from all walks of life to discuss countermeasures.

Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder put forward the "Agenda 2030" in an interview with Business Daily, pointing out that we should respond to the challenges brought by an aging society in time. He insisted on extending the retirement age to 67, increasing the proportion of women in the leadership and supporting the immigration policy. The working group that proposed the "age tax" not only emphasized the stability of the social security fund, but also put forward many measures, such as creating a family-friendly social atmosphere, advocating immigration and hiring more women and elderly workers. At the same time, improving the birth rate and the balance between women's family and career require the government to formulate policies that care for the family and encourage fertility. It is believed that the reason why France's fertility rate is better than that of Germany lies in the encouragement and cooperation of its family policy.

Some population experts believe that population development will generally go through five stages from a multi-child agricultural society to an aging industrial society, and should reach a balance again in the final stage. Judging from the current situation, the global industrial countries are still developing towards an aging society, and whether they can achieve a new balance in theory remains to be tested by facts.

At a conference in Singapore? Dieter Salomon, the mayor of Freiburg, a German green city, talked about the future of the city. When asked what German cities will be like in the next 30 years, he smiled and said, "There will be no future".

Mr. Mayor is not exaggerating. For decades, the population growth in Europe is the slowest in the world, and the fertility rate is much lower than the population replacement rate, which is about 50% lower than that in the United States. In time, this demographic trend will bring disastrous economic consequences. By 2050, the current population of 730 million in Europe will decrease by 7? From 5 million to 654.38 billion people, its labor force population will also be reduced by 25% compared with 2000.

Germany is a super economy on the European continent, and the possibility of escaping from the "cold winter" of population is slim. By 2030, Germany will have 53 retirees for every 65,438+000 people, while the United States will have only 30. In this way, Germany will face a huge debt crisis-the social welfare cost of the elderly will erode the achievements of its current savings/output economy. Nick Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute said that by 2020, German debt principal and interest will account for twice the current GDP of Greece.

Government's countermeasures

Germany is the first country in the world to establish a public pension system. As early as the end of 19, Bismarck, then Prime Minister, set up endowment insurance. During the whole course of the 20th century, 1995' s medical insurance, unemployment insurance, industrial injury insurance and nursing insurance were born one after another. Generally speaking, the old-age care is mainly undertaken by the society, and the public pension treatment is also very generous. Since the advent of nursing insurance, the pension industry has provided hundreds of thousands of employment opportunities for the society.

In order to cope with the aging, Germany has increased the accumulated pension plan on the basis of the single public pension system. Germany's public pension system (GRV) adopts the pay-as-you-go system, and the required funds come from payroll tax and financial subsidies. The payroll tax rate is 19.5%, which accounts for about 70% of the public pension expenditure. At the end of 1980s, the government realized that the aging would seriously affect the sustainability of the public pension plan. Germany started the pension reform in 1992. The main policies include modifying the adjustment mechanism of pension benefits, avoiding excessive growth of pension benefits and controlling early retirement. These methods reduce both pension expenditure and pension benefits. In order to make up for the decline in pension benefits, Germany has established a voluntary and fully accumulated pension plan, with an individual contribution rate of 4% and tax incentives given by the government. The coverage of the accumulation plan is still limited. In 2004, Germany further revised the formula for determining public pension benefits. The new formula automatically adjusts the public pension benefits according to the change of the ratio of retired population to contributory population. When the proportion of the elderly population increases, the public's pension benefits will automatically decrease.

Germany's old-age insurance system includes three parts: statutory old-age insurance, enterprise old-age insurance and private old-age insurance. The latter two are also called "supplementary endowment insurance". With the problem of aging population in Germany becoming increasingly prominent, the burden of government pension is gradually increasing. For this reason, while maintaining the dominant position of statutory old-age insurance, the German government has also taken measures to encourage people to participate more in "supplementary old-age insurance".

In Germany, the statutory old-age insurance covers a wide range, including both general pensions and pensions after vocational rehabilitation and loss of professional ability or employability. In principle, all employees are compulsory participants in the statutory pension insurance, and freelancers such as doctors, lawyers and artists generally participate in private pension insurance.

The statutory endowment insurance fund mainly comes from the contributions of employers and employees, and the rate can be adjusted at any time according to actual needs. At present, the payment ratio is 65,438+09.5% of the salary, which is shared by the employer and employees. When the monthly income of employees is below a certain limit, the employer will pay it separately. In addition, the statutory old-age insurance also receives state subsidies every year, accounting for about one-fifth of the total expenditure of old-age insurance in that year. The pension is based on the retiree's salary and calculate length, but the maximum amount is not more than 75% of the last month's salary before retirement.

In addition, Germany also strongly encourages enterprise pension insurance and private pension insurance. Different from the statutory pension insurance, the enterprise pension insurance adopts the principle of "direct payment", that is, how much enterprise pension insurance employees have accumulated during their work, and they can get the corresponding amount of pension after retirement. The proportion of enterprise endowment insurance paid by employees to wages is decided by the industrial labor department and the government through consultation every year, and this part of endowment insurance can enjoy tax concessions. Enterprise endowment insurance was originally distributed to employees as welfare.

Since 2002, Germany has promulgated a new law, which stipulates that employees of enterprises have the right to require employers to convert part of their wages or holiday bonuses into enterprise pension insurance, and the financing methods, organizational forms and participants of enterprise pension insurance can be freely chosen. At present, the coverage rate of German enterprise pension insurance has reached 65%, which has become the most important supplementary part of the pension insurance system.

Although the supplementary pension insurance of German enterprises is voluntary and operated by private companies, the government has not completely liberalized it, but has carried out macro-control. In order to prevent the risk that employers can't pay their pensions due to bankruptcy, Germany has set up an endowment insurance fund organized by employers as a guarantee institution, which stipulates that employers who provide enterprise endowment insurance are obliged to insure with the guarantee institution. If an enterprise cannot pay its supplementary pensions due to bankruptcy, it will be paid by the foundation.

Private pension insurance is also voluntary and can also receive state subsidies. At present, the proportion of pension paid by statutory pension insurance, enterprise pension insurance and private pension insurance in Germany is about 70%, 20% and 10% respectively. The German government hopes that the pension paid by private pension insurance will increase to 15% of the total pension in the near future, and reach 25% to 30% in the medium and long term. In this way, enterprise pension insurance and private pension insurance will be expected to gradually upgrade from the current supplementary position to the pillar position similar to statutory pension insurance.

The decline of fertility rate and the aging of population have brought great impact to the old-age insurance system established in Germany19th century. Germany's retirement insurance system implements "installment repayment method", also known as "intergenerational contract". Specifically, it is the working generation, and the retirement insurance premium they pay is used to pay the retirement pension for retirees.

According to the general rule, the most reasonable and effective ratio should be to support one retiree for every three employees. Germany currently provides pensions for 44 retirees out of every 65,438+000 employees. According to the current development process of population fertility rate and population aging, in another 20 years, every 100 employee will have to support 78 retirees. By that time, it will be impossible to protect the life of retirees by paying insurance money from employees on the job.

When Germany introduced the old-age insurance system in the early19th century, the legal retirement age was 70 years, while the average life expectancy at that time was only 45 years. 1956 when the german government carried out pension reform, the retirement age was set at 65. In recent years, the average retirement age of Germans is 65, but the average life expectancy has reached 80. Therefore, the German government decided to raise the retirement age to 67 from 20 12.

European society has become accustomed to enjoying a comfortable retirement life, and some welfare countries are regarded as a paradise for retirees in continental Europe. Although more and more people realize that the current system is about to go bankrupt, ordinary people often care about their immediate interests and oppose extending retirement time. A German friend of the reporter thinks this decision is unrealistic? Because in German enterprises, two-thirds of people have been forced to leave their jobs before the age of 65 because of health and other reasons.

Another scholar believes that delaying retirement age will squeeze young people's employment and promotion space, and delaying retirement is to prolong the country's metabolic cycle. German trade unions also criticized that this reform measure is not conducive to Germany's old-age security system and is a disguised "pension reduction plan". No matter how people oppose this measure, people must realize that reforming the existing welfare system is a "painful reality" that Germany must face.

In order to solve the problem of aging, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Scientific Research has formulated a comprehensive scientific research plan to fund research in various fields related to population aging. Annette schavan, German Minister of Education and Scientific Research, said that this is the first time that Germany has formulated an interdisciplinary research plan on population aging. The German government plans to invest more than 400 million euros in this project by 20 16. The topics involved in this plan include not only the principled issues in the field of social sciences, but also the new concepts of communication, transportation and architecture, as well as specific technical issues in training and medical care aimed at improving the lives of the elderly.

Sha Fan said: "We will promote the development of new solutions, products and services that are conducive to improving the quality of life and social participation of the elderly through scientific research. We should explore the hidden treasures of a long-lived society for the benefit of the whole society. "

In a statement, the German Ministry of Education and Scientific Research stressed that Germany should not only properly cope with the challenges brought by the aging population in the future, but also be good at making full use of the opportunities brought by aging. For example, in the face of the gradual decrease of young employees in the future, how to better play the role of older employees. One of the funding directions of this research project is to promote business and education circles to find better solutions to similar problems.

Pension model of welfare state

Germany practices a social market economy. Like other economic fields, the German federal government does not directly intervene in the market development of the "silver-haired economy" in principle, but gives full support in policies: financial support for the elderly who need care, and tax support for nursing enterprises. Germany's social welfare law * * * has twelve volumes, which is a veritable welfare state.

The cost of nursing first comes from nursing insurance, and the lead unit is the Ministry of Health. These standards are:

Home care for the elderly: nursing level 65438+ 0,450 euros per month; Nursing level II, 1 100 Euro per month; Nursing level 3, per month 1550 euros;

Day or night care center: nursing level 65438+ 0,450 euros per month; Nursing level II, 1 100 Euro per month; Nursing level 3, per month 1550 euros;

Short-term nursing home: nursing level 1 to 3, monthly 1550 euros;

Institutional pension? Nursing home: nursing level 1, 1023 euros per month; Nursing level 2, per month 1279 euros; Nursing level 3, per month 1550 euros;

Alzheimer's disease: 2,400 euros per month;

It should be noted that the amount of nursing insurance is based on incomplete insurance. For example, the nursing home in Berlin costs 3,000 euros per month for the second-level nursing care. Apart from the monthly fee of 65,438+0,279 euros paid by the nursing insurance, they have to pay the remaining 65,438+0,726,5438+0 euros.

If the individual fails to pay 172 1 euro as mentioned above, the state will provide corresponding financial subsidies according to the bottom line of personal income. The twelfth volume of the German Social Welfare Law stipulates financial subsidies, and the lead unit is the Ministry of Civil Affairs and Welfare.

Give preferential tax policies to nursing enterprises. At present, there are two main types of corporate tax in Germany: sales tax? At present, 19% and profit tax. Is corporate profit tax divided into corporate income tax? 15% and business tax? About 13%. For nursing enterprises, business tax and business tax are exempted, and only enterprise income tax is paid.

Local governments will also give support to elderly residential areas. Due to the characteristics of German federalism, local governments can provide policy or financial support according to their own conditions. For example, in view of the extremely high land price, the local government in Munich has given great policy support to establish a small residential area for the elderly, the so-called Munich model-exchanging relatively cheap land price for building indicators for public utilities. "Tudelin Residential Area for the Aged in Munich" includes 49 residential nursing apartments and 108 bed nursing apartments. In nursing homes, the local government also gives a one-time financial subsidy of 16000 euros per bed.

In Germany, home care and institutional care complement each other. Based on home-based pension, supported by community service and supported by institutional pension? This principle has been basically realized in Germany. At present, there are about 2.3 million elderly people in Germany who need care, of whom 6.5438+0.5 million are mainly caring for the elderly at home, with the help of relatives, friends and neighbors, and their average age is under 80. Another 800,000 people choose institutions to support the elderly, and the elderly who usually live in nursing homes are generally over 80 years old. The first stage of providing for the aged is mainly home-based care and community service, and the second stage is institutional care for the aged.

Home-based care is mainly based on traditional home-based care, supplemented by day care centers and short-term care centers; Home care, nursing insurance supports home care services with a fixed amount according to the level of care. For example, Renafan Group provides home care services in many places in Germany, and currently * * * serves 65,438+0,600 customers.

With the help of home care service, the elderly can go to the day care center after washing early. Old people usually have different activities, such as reading aloud, paper cutting, memory training, playing chess and cards, and making cakes. After returning home, washing dishes and sleeping are all done by home-based care services.

When there are no relatives, friends and neighbors, or when they just come home from the hospital and need to recover, the elderly can enter short-term nursing homes. According to the nursing insurance regulations, the maximum period is two months per year.

In 20 10, 800,000 people in Germany chose old-age care institutions, that is, they entered nursing homes. Ten years later, in 2020, it is expected that more people will enter nursing homes. The elderly are generally separated from their children, and the children's work pressure, the pursuit of personal life and the decline of birth rate are the main reasons for the rapid development of institutional pension in Germany. According to statistics, five years ago, the average time for each person to stay in a nursing home was about two years, and now the occupancy period has been greatly shortened, estimated to be about 1 year. In other words, the demand for beds in the aging development should be greater than predicted, but the periodic shortening and the development of home-based care services have alleviated this problem.

At present, there are about 12000 pension institutions in Germany with 800,000 beds, which means that each pension institution has less than 70 beds. This is related to the population density in Germany and their taste in life. However, due to competition and cost pressure, newly-built pension institutions usually have more than 120 beds, and most of them are built in cities.

The difference between nursing homes and home-based care for the aged is that they can enjoy all-round services 24 hours a day: nursing, day life and daily life. For example, Renafan Group combines professional nursing with hotel services, and has set up "life service centers" focusing on institutional pension in several cities.

In recent years, a new model of home-based care for the aged-guardianship apartment has emerged in Germany. Because the elderly are inconvenient to move, the newly-built apartment is barrier-free, and some hardware facilities for the elderly can be added, such as electronic annunciators or TV monitors. If you need care, you can make an appointment for home care service.

Experience shows that the combination of guardianship apartments and nursing homes is more popular and popularized faster. Old people not only get a lot of services, but also can go directly to the nearby nursing home once they are bedridden. The most representative is Reina Van Life Service Center "Berlin Buhe", which opened in 2008. Does its service include nursing apartments for the elderly? Nursing homes, day care centers, short-term care centers, Alzheimer's care centers and medical intensive care centers.

Due to the aging population and the declining birth rate, it is predicted that Germany will need an additional 220,000 nursing staff from 20 12 to 2020. At present, there are about 970 thousand workers in the nursing industry, and there has been a serious shortage of professionals for many years. Used in a variety of services, such as elderly care, dementia care, critical care and so on. It is necessary to hold professional lectures and communicate with insurance companies or hospitals to continuously train and retrain nursing staff.