Can house prices in small and medium-sized cities still rise?

Now there are some misconceptions or data circulating in the real estate market. In fact, as long as you think about it carefully, you can find that this is obviously wrong: first, in recent years, house prices have continued to rise, and many people who bought houses earlier have naturally made them happy. This is a typical investment mentality. Families with one suite account for the majority in society, and it is unlikely that the average family will make a profit by selling after the huge rise in house prices. Because the concept of "living and working in peace and contentment" is deeply rooted in China, it is necessary to have an advanced investment concept in order to sell the house and then rent it out to make money. Therefore, no matter how much your house has gone up, as long as you don't sell it, you can't realize this kind of income. In other words, wealth on paper. Just like speculating in stocks, although there are several daily limit boards, if you don't sell them, you will fall back to the original price, that is, draw water from a bamboo basket-with a sieve. Therefore, although the house price has risen a lot, it doesn't make sense for most families with only one suite. Two, China housing loans to implement floating interest rates, when the interest rate changes, starting from the second year, the implementation of the new interest rate. When people buy a house, at first glance, the repayment will be one or two thousand a month, which is a piece of cake and completely affordable. At present, the one-year deposit interest rate is only 2.52% (even lower than the price increase of 3% in 2004), but the arithmetic average since 1979 is 6.58%, and the loan interest rate is about 6%. According to the current spread, the loan interest rate is about 10%. For decades, the average mortgage interest rate in the United States has been 8-9%. If the interest rate rises to a normal level in the future, the repayment pressure will be very heavy. If the loan interest rate is 612,400,000 years and the 20-year interest rate is 489,600, if the interest rate rises to 7%, 8% and 9%, the interest rate is 564.72 million respectively, and the rising rates are 14.38%, 30.72% and 47.06% respectively. Therefore, property buyers should carefully consider the interest rate risk. As the saying goes, people who have no long-term worries will have near worries. Third, when house prices rise, not all the rising parts can become income. According to the calculation, if the new house is transferred within 1 year, the transaction cost, business tax, agency fee at the time of sale, loan interest and liquidated damages for early repayment should be considered. Assuming that the annual rental yield of real estate is 4%, the annual increase of investment real estate prices needs to be around 8% to make a profit. Considering the personal income tax, the income is even less. Although China is vast and sparsely populated, house prices may not always go up. The average population density in China is 0/32 people per square kilometer/kloc, and the figures in Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam and Germany are 336, 478, 338, 238 and 230 respectively. Even in 13 coastal provinces, cities and autonomous regions, the average population density is only 407 people per square kilometer, which is no essential difference compared with the above countries. For example, in terms of livable area, the population density in eastern China is lower than that in Japan, South Korea and India. For example, the mountains and hills in Japan account for 3/4, and the population density in Japan exceeds 0/300 people per square kilometer/kloc in terms of livable area. For another example, consider that most of the urban population in China lives in multi-storey and high-rise buildings, while most of the population in Germany and Britain live in low-rise or single-family houses. The per capita living space in China is much smaller than that in Germany and Britain. Therefore, although there are many people in China, there are many places and many people, which is not the reason why house prices will definitely rise. Fifth, house prices are falling instead of rising. Perhaps from a relatively long period of time, such as 100, regardless of inflation, house prices did only rise and not fall. However, long-term bullish does not mean that it will only rise or fall. In fact, nothing can only go up and down, no matter how many seemingly good reasons. Japan is a country with extremely scarce land resources, two-thirds of which are mountainous, so at that time, the whole country thought that there was no reason why house prices could not keep up. Results At the peak, the theoretical land price in Tokyo and its surrounding areas exceeded the total land price in the United States and the net asset value of all companies listed in new york. As a result, Japan's housing prices fell continuously from 1990 to the level of the 1970s, dragging down the whole Japanese economy. House prices should rise moderately and slowly. If they exceed the average growth rate, there will be pressure to fall back. Moreover, the rise in house prices is actually the appreciation of land, and the house itself is constantly depreciating (accounting depreciation), because the building level is becoming more and more backward and obsolete. Land ownership belongs to the state and never to individuals. Sixth, after buying a house, it will not be done once and for all. According to the laws of China, the owner owns the building, but has no ownership of the land of the house, and only has the right to use it for 70 years at most. Moreover, the house has been built for 3 years, and the owner has only 67 years of land use rights, and only 65 years after being vacant for 2 years. As for whether to pay the land use right fee to the state again, or to use it for free in the future, or to recover the right to use it by the state, this is still a blank in law. Therefore, when buying a house, buyers should not only look at the location and transportation of the house, but also look at the term of land ownership. 7. It is said that in the first quarter of 2005, the national questionnaire survey of urban depositors showed that 22% of residents were going to buy houses in the next three months, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous quarter and 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. According to this statement, in a year or so, there will always be more than 20% people buying houses within three months, so 80% people are going to buy houses within one year. Anyone with a little common sense knows that this is absolutely impossible. Either there is something wrong with the survey method, or a large number of people who are going to buy a house in March have not bought a house at all. Another survey shows that 90% people think that house prices will still rise. After remembering that Wei Xiaobao and the guards killed several eunuchs, someone shouted: "There is an assassin!" Others said, "Kill some eunuchs!" Everyone couldn't help laughing. If Kangxi asks these people, 100% will say that the assassin killed them. In a word, we can't trust these surveys. 8. Shanghai is not an international metropolis. As a highly developed capitalist country, new york is the only international metropolis in the United States. Shanghai is very famous in Asia, but few people in the world know about it. Shanghai once competed with South Korea's Lishui for the right to host the 20 10 World Expo. Since Lishui applied for the Expo, it is certainly not a bad city, but how many people know about Lishui? I don't know when the subway in Daegu, South Korea was built, but there was an arson accident on the subway in 1995, which means it was built before 1995. But how many people in China know about Daegu? Shanghai Metro was put into trial operation in April 1995. Shanghai ranks only 102 in the global quality of life ranking. How many people in the world can name the top 50 cities? /kloc-not to mention Shanghai after 0/00. It can be seen that Shanghai is an international metropolis, so the statement that house prices should be the same as those in Tokyo and other places is just a lie with ulterior motives. (See "Shanghai is not an international metropolis at all" in my blog for details. Nine, the economic impact of falling house prices is too great, which does not mean that it cannot fall. In fact, since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's economy has experienced many ups and downs, from three years of natural disasters to the general losses of state-owned enterprises, the Asian financial crisis, and even the Korean War, which have not caused a fundamental blow to the country. On the contrary, China's economy is getting better and better. Falling house prices only make real estate speculators lose blood, appropriately slow down economic development, and have little impact on banks (property buyers generally make a down payment of 30%, and bank loans can be basically recovered as long as house prices fall by no more than 30%). Moreover, the impact of the early bursting of the housing price bubble is less than that of the later bursting. 10. International iron ore prices rose by 710.5% in 2005 and 19% in 2006, but steel prices may not rise and house prices may not rise. According to Yang Shen, president of China Real Estate Association, the cost of building materials only accounts for 20% of the house price, and steel is not the only building material, so the proportion of steel in the house price is even lower. The amount of steel used in brick-concrete buildings is only 10 to 30 kilograms per square meter. Therefore, the rise in steel prices has little effect on the rise in housing prices. At the same time, steel prices have risen for several years in a row, which also makes enterprises invest heavily blindly. In 2005 alone, the capacity of completed steel projects will be as high as 465,438+1100 million tons, while the output of pig iron in China in 2004 was only 250 million tons. In the medium term, steel prices will fall instead of rising. The rise in steel prices is not the reason for the rise in house prices. Eleven, China's economic development, income increase, housing prices will not necessarily rise. Yes, China's income has increased rapidly in the past two years. For example, in Shanghai, the per capita disposable income in 2003 and 2004 was 14867 and 16683 respectively, with an average annual growth of 12%. However, houses are different from ordinary consumer goods, and it takes twenty or thirty years of savings to buy them. If a person's annual income is 30,000 and the house price is 600,000, it is equivalent to 20 years' income. For example, income and house price increase by 65,438+05% every year. After 20 years, without eating or drinking, there is only 3.0735 million savings left, but the house price has risen to 8.54 million. Therefore, the price increase should be much lower than the income growth. 12. Land is a non-renewable resource, so it cannot be determined that house prices will definitely rise. In fact, not only land, but also oil, coal, iron ore and uranium ore are non-renewable resources. But do these things just keep going up and never fall? 1999, the oil price in the international market was only 13 USD per barrel, and the lowest was less than 10 USD per barrel. Moreover, the market analysis may decline at that time, because the world economy is in a downturn, the continuous warm winter, and the improvement of oil exploitation technology can increase production. It's about 50 dollars a barrel now. 1980, the global average price of gold was 6 12 USD per ounce, which fell to 279 USD in 2000. At that time, the Bank of England sold gold on a large scale because of the high cost of storage, storage and transportation, and because it did not generate interest like money, it was accused by South Africa, the largest gold producer, which means that Britain built its happiness on the pain of South Africa. When the prices of oil and gold plummeted, was it because they became renewable resources? Moreover, oil is not only non-renewable, but will be exhausted in about 40 years. Thirteen, after the land contraction, the land is not so short. I'm afraid this statement was carefully designed by the developer. Consumers and developers are antagonistic "enemies". Mao Zedong said: If the enemy agrees, we will oppose it. At least this statement has a question mark. That was not the case. Take Beijing, where there are many rumors of "insufficient land supply", as an example. According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, in 2004, 7 1 plot of land was sold in Beijing, up 92% year-on-year. The total land area is 437.7 1 hectare, an increase of 2 13% over the same period last year. Beijing still has about 59 million square meters of real estate land to be revitalized. Developers create such a true lie, but they want consumers to accept high housing prices. Fourteen, the government strictly controls the land, and the supply exceeds the demand, but the house price does not naturally rise. The difference with Hong Kong. In the past two years, some local governments monopolized the land market and obtained a lot of municipal construction funds through land transfer, which of course raised the land price. This is similar to the practice of the Hong Kong Government. The vitality of Hong Kong's economy is closely related to the low tax policy. The highest personal income tax in Hong Kong is only 5%, but it is generally around 40%. For example, in Chinese mainland, the monthly income of individuals exceeds 654.38 million yuan, and the tax rate is as high as 45%. The main income of Hong Kong comes from land sales. Why did Li Can Li Ka-shing earn HK$ 654.38+000 billion? Is to thoroughly understand the land policy and low tax rate of the British Hong Kong government. However, about 90% of the mainland government's fiscal revenue comes from taxes. Therefore, it is impossible for governments at all levels to generally adopt such a policy for a long time. This is a last resort transitional policy, just like the telephone installation fee charged by China Telecom to raise construction funds. Plant a house by phone first, and enjoy the cool after buying a house by phone. 15. Sales volume does not represent real demand. Many people think that the real estate market is prosperous and healthy. In fact, buying does not represent the actual demand, because psychological expectations distort the real demand. For example, in 2000, the China stock market was in a bull market, and all the new shares issued were oversubscribed by hundreds of times (because the first day of listing was about 100%), so the stocks with higher P/E ratio (such as Wujiang Power 80 times) could not be sold. But now in the bear market, the listing of new shares has also fallen, and the shares with a price-earnings ratio of 15 cannot be sold. The market has gone up for several years in a row, so many buyers have overdrawn their future purchases. Because they are expected to rise, they will have to pay higher prices after not buying, which leads to exaggerated real demand. Sixteen, the government will not die to ensure that house prices will not fall and will not support the market. Joke: Isn't the Japanese government richer than a local government in China? Even the Hong Kong government is far richer than some local governments in China? Do the Japanese and Hong Kong governments want house prices to fall when they keep falling? Some people may think that the local government in China, with less financial strength than Japan and Hong Kong, has the power to do what Japan and Hong Kong can't. Take Guangzhou as an example. In 2004, house prices rose, but before that, house prices fell for eight consecutive years. The rise and fall of commodity prices is determined by economic laws, not by people's subjective will. When the various factors of falling house prices accumulate to a certain extent, the government can do nothing. In fact, the situation is just the opposite. The government of China is very clever. When the China stock market was crazy on 1997, an article in People's Daily put an end to this madness. As a result, many countries in Asia have been devastated by the Asian financial crisis, which is terrible, but China is better than walking around peacefully. I'm afraid it will only appropriately suppress housing prices and squeeze bubbles, which will not support the market. (For details, please refer to my blog "Housing prices must be listened to, and the government is unable to support the market". ) seventeen. Some well-known economists say that house prices will rise, but not necessarily. Just because an economist is wise in some fields does not mean that he is good at all economic problems. Newton, a wise man, mistook light for particles and finally believed in God. The more famous an economist is, the less time he has to study. For those remarks that house prices will triple in ten years and rise for another twenty years, we should carefully analyze them and don't believe them. Before the Korean War, RAND Company wanted to sell the US government seven words: China would send troops to North Korea, asking for millions of dollars. Although there are only seven words, it is accompanied by hundreds of pages of detailed explanations. The American government was reluctant to part with that little money and didn't buy it. And I got hit head-on. Are these remarks based on detailed materials? I am afraid that we don't have. Yang Xiaokai said: Some scholars in China are not short of wisdom, but have no conscience. 1998 why didn't these people say that house prices would double? Can they assure buyers that house prices will rise? Did the person who said that the stock market was going to rise to 3000 points compensate the loss-making shareholders even a penny? (See the article "Economists and House Price Lies" in my blog for details. ) 18. You don't have to buy a house to get married. In fact, buying or renting the same house does not affect the situation of the house itself. It is impossible to rent the same house, and there is nuclear radiation. Once you buy it, you can make people live forever. Buy or rent, from the perspective of cost. At present, domestic housing prices are high, but rents are relatively cheap. If young people can temporarily rent a house at a lower cost and buy it later when the house price falls, the money saved can do a lot of things. At this time, I was desperate to empty my savings, even my parents' savings to pay the down payment. Although I have a house, I face long-term debts. Buying a house is an old concept handed down from the agricultural society. Buying at a reasonable time and price is a clever way for modern economic people. Bill Gates once thought that the parking fee of $25 was too expensive, so he would rather drive his car to other parking lots. Ordinary people in China should buy a house at a reasonable price. I also believe that domestic housing prices will rise in the future, because GDP is increasing. How will GDP maintain the current growth rate of 8% in the next ten to twenty years? In those nine years, the total GDP doubled to 19, and the GDP doubled again. Accordingly, the price level is definitely going up. It is not surprising that house prices will be twice as high in 2020 as they are now. However, this cannot be the reason why the real estate bubble cannot be adjusted back. Because at least statistically, GDP has remained at 7 or 8% in the past five years, why did the stock market drop by half from more than 2,000 points? Answer: system deficiency, structural imbalance, excessive speculation, overdraft concept ... these problems have also existed in the real estate market in the past few years, or even more serious. In other words, even if the long-term price level will rise, the hurdle before us will become more and more difficult to cross. For example, the top of Mount Everest in the distance is certainly desirable, but before climbing, you have to face ups and downs of ravines and deep pits, and many people may "sacrifice" before climbing halfway up the mountain. So this kind of fooling people with the beautiful rainbow on the horizon mostly leads you to the next episode. Although we firmly believe that as long as the China stock market exists, the future stock value will have a chance to reach 1000 points, but this does not hinder the sadness of the current stock market. The same is true of the property market. Although the market atmosphere is so high now, because the property market price is still rising. Encouraged by the money-making effect, the confidence of both speculators and property buyers is extremely strong, and no one will believe that property prices will fall. But this money-making effect must depend on the increase of house prices above 5%. Once this growth is unsustainable, both buyers and sellers will be afraid. Therefore, from this perspective, it is difficult for the government to maintain the property market at a level of flat and small growth through macro-control. Because of the large increase, the housing-free class refused, but the increase was small, and the investment class was unhappy. The government is walking a tightrope. If you are not careful, something will go wrong. Who can blame this? It can only be blamed that the central government saw signs of overheating in the property market in 2003, but did not take effective measures quickly, delaying the best time for regulation. Just as the best time for exchange rate regulation has been delayed. The local government is trying to squeeze every drop of oil and water out of the property market. Coupled with the lack of technological innovation, lack of economic growth points, narrow investment channels and other factors, it is inevitable that social funds will cross the wooden bridge in thousands of troops. At this time, why is the best strategy of the houseless air force to wait and see? Because you have missed the stage when the ratio of house price to income is still in a benign range, entering the market now is undoubtedly a reaction of speculators, and the bigger problem is that it will brew your own financial risks in the next few decades. The ratio of house price to income is not an imaginary number, but a yardstick to measure a family's financial balance. If this ratio is too outrageous, it means that you are overdrawing the future. Of course, if I live in my own big house and would rather eat pickles every day, then I have nothing to say. Rational air force bearish on the current property market. In addition to the price factor, there is also the problem of structural distortion of the property itself. Huxing is completely unsuitable, the location is too remote, the supporting facilities are difficult to improve in the near future, and there are hidden dangers in the quality of the house. Everything is enough for you. Will you pay attention to these problems only if they fall on your head? Isn't the lesson of those who have already bought a house alert enough? Just because the Rational Air Force doesn't buy a house now doesn't mean it will never buy a house. Just as I have not invested in the stock market so far, it does not mean that I will not invest in overseas markets after the root causes of the stock market are corrected in the future. Doesn't mean I can invest in overseas markets in the future. I still choose to deposit my money in the four major state-owned banks to get low interest rates. What's the hurry? With the liberalization of finance at the end of 2006, we are confident enough to obtain better financial services and investment channels in the future. What are the benefits of reform and opening up? Isn't the industry you monopolize not enterprising? At this time, someone will force you to progress. Haven't we already enjoyed this benefit in other competitive fields? Unless the reform and opening up ends here, we will close down again! In terms of financial arrangements, there is no problem for the Air Force to rent a house or renovate its old house in the short term. In the fierce competition in the future, where is such an exquisite advantage? It is easy to be frugal, but difficult to be frugal. Young people in a society are always thinking about how to enjoy it quickly, and this person has no great promise, so the future of this society is even more tragic. National public opinion has not played a good role in advocating a benign social atmosphere in recent years, which is also an important reason why South Korea and Singapore look down on China. Moreover, the air force would like to thank the multi-arms, whose strength and risk-taking ability are stronger than yours, which has made the demand prosperous, and developers and banks are also full of energy to invest in building houses. It is always necessary to build more houses. The air force has more choices in renting houses. Think about it, a house was bought by many troops and put down payment. It is also possible to get a loan, providing thousands of dollars a month. The property fees are arranged, the house is decorated, and even the furniture and appliances are new, just waiting for you to live. You live comfortably for thousands of dollars a month. You don't have to worry about the quality of the house. Don't worry about changing property management companies. You have to change your job and move, and the owner will continue. You just have to say hello to the moving company. Aren't you light? Of course, you will complain that the house decoration can't be arbitrary, so when renting a house, try to find a house that suits your taste. Besides, the current trend is light decoration and heavy decoration. Who will decorate his chest of drawers on the wall? The landlord's taste in decoration is unreliable. He only rents the kind that is surrounded by white, and the whole set of furniture is his own. If it's a big event, put some wallpaper on the wall and decorate the room more. A house is just a sofa in the living room, a home theater, a double bed in the bedroom, a kitchen set, a bathtub in the bathroom and other flowers and plants. Aren't you tired of watching it in a few years? In the face of rising housing prices, many soldiers are saving money to buy a house, and they can't stop to give you a brand-new house, and the rental price is becoming more and more satisfactory. What spirit is this? This is, of course, the spirit of serving the people wholeheartedly. Duo Jun is the cutest person in this crazy housing price era. If the air force is not satisfied, it will definitely refuse to rent more and more houses in the hands of many troops. It would be a bit unkind to have other ideas, haha

Satisfied, please adopt.