Wang Jianlin is back again.

If nothing happens, the topic of Wanda Commercial Hong Kong IPO will hover over Wanda Company of 202 1.

There is a passage in the workshop: "Tencent has no dreams, Baidu has no future, and Wanda is not listed."

No matter how low-key Wanda executives face it, the media, the industry and even Wanda fans are enjoying a heated discussion.

In the past week, Wanda withdrew its application for landing in A shares and returned to Hong Kong stocks for the second time after seven years. This is a beautiful turn.

It can be compared that the market value of Country Garden service exceeds 200 billion, and the shell market exceeds 400 billion.

The pursuit of light asset company in the capital market has also swept away the gloom of Wanda Commercial, which has been bearish for two years.

Media focus on Wanda is not only the valuation of 100 billion yuan, but also the return of the richest man in China, which is the best highlight of Wanda's business since 15.

Among the unlisted super unicorns in China, with the listing of the shell, only this star is the most radiant. Its future growth space is more and more imaginative.

A product manager wrote meaningfully in the log:

The key to picking up girls is different.

The key for Tencent to pick up girls lies in girls, only staring at competitors and ignoring the user experience;

Ali's key to picking up girls is to soak up, be good at business and pay attention to experience and marketing;

Wanda pays attention to both competitors and user experience, and as a result, it becomes a husband.

The three companies are completely different species and have completely different logical styles. However, Wanda Commercial is a bit sad.

2065438+On September 20, 2006, Wanda Commercial Hong Kong stocks were delisted, and Wang Jianlin disappeared for a long time. Apart from media speculation, there are few official reports about what the helmsman of Wanda Empire is thinking and what action he is taking.

Wanda is no small matter. Especially in the spotlight of the media, the magnified local fragments triggered a drama chase. Want to know the question, there may be only two:

For Wang Jianlin, has this long-lost godfather of the empire been defeated by setbacks?

Is Wanda's change adjustment or turbulence?

Is it the product of crisis or the inevitable action of enterprise development?

Especially the shocking release of 20 17, is it to clear up your past or the need of iteration? A strong man wrist fracture? Or do you want to practice magic and wield the knife in the palace? Or, is there a better solution?

Almost everyone is guessing what kind of big game Wang Jianlin's strategic home is playing.

If you want to be as stable as Mount Tai, you should not only stick to the golden waterway of your own imperial merchants, but also focus on your own weaknesses.

This also means that Wang Jianlin should completely transform every link of all business models that Wanda Commercial has established. Otherwise, Wanda Commercial will not be as stable as Mount Tai.

The editor's note has been written long enough, so we hand over the stage to Ouyang Guihua, editor-in-chief of Wanfang Research.

one

Wanda Commercial returned to Hong Kong stocks and once again returned to the spotlight. How to evaluate this company has become a new challenge and topic.

An official publicly disclosed data is:

By September 30, 2020, Wanda Commercial had a total construction area of 54.073 million m? .

Among them, the total construction area of the property held is 40.902 million square meters? ;

In addition, the total construction area of the company's output management is 1, 31710,000m? Among them, the light asset projects operated are 2.292 million m? Cooperation project 7.665 million m? , the hotel's output management 32 1.4 million m? .

This set of data may be too abstract, and its additional label is:

This is a leading business management company in the world, and the largest commercial property owner in the world (ranked by the rentable area for holding and managing commercial properties).

According to this set of data, the simplest and rudest valuation methodology: after listing, whether Wanda Commercial can reach a market value of 100 billion, the valuation logic refers to Country Garden service and shell.

In fact, as early as seven years ago, the market value of Wanda's commercial listing had exceeded 200 billion (the issue price per share was HK$ 48, the over-allotment price was HK$ 48, and the total share capital was about 4,527,347,600 shares).

2065438+On September 20th, 2006, China commercial real estate unicorn Hong Kong stock ended, and the tender offer price was HK$ 52.8 in cash per H share.

There were three reasons for the official written reply at that time:

(1) Hong Kong market investors lack understanding of Chinese mainland's comprehensive consumer platform business that drives domestic demand growth, and their awareness of the issuer's brand value in Chinese mainland is not high, resulting in the overall value of the issuer's H shares being underestimated after listing;

(2) The maintenance cost of H-share listed companies is high;

(3) The listing of H shares failed to realize the listing and circulation of domestic shares, and the issuer decided to delist from H shares.

The third point is the key to delisting. The ownership structure of Wanda Commercial is very special. Shareholders are divided into domestic shareholders and H-share shareholders, with the former holding 85.59% and the latter holding 65,438+04.45438+0%.

In the early days of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the special setting of ownership structure did not attract the special attention of issuers. But it also laid the groundwork for returning to A shares after delisting in the future.

There is a bigger reason. When reading Wanda's commercial financial report, osmanthus found a clue.

Just after the Spring Festival, at the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of Wanda Commercial 20 18, an obscure decision was made at that time, and the company name was changed from "Dalian Wanda Commercial Real Estate Co., Ltd." to "Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd.".

The word "real estate" disappeared with Wanda's friends who had been in business for many years, and was replaced by "management group".

Is this the future of Wanda Commercial? If so, what is Wanda Commercial's current valuation?

two

At the 20 18 annual meeting, Wang Jianlin said that Wanda brand was very useful.

At the annual meeting, some executives still can't fully understand the meaning of Lao Wang's words, but in the eyes of investors, Wanda Commercial is accelerating its landing.

It is an objective fact that the GTV of Wanda Commercial may be equivalent to the economic volume of a developed province in China or a country in the European Union.

This is a success, an opportunity and a risk for a company.

Behind the different understanding is the difference of views: if we develop according to inertia, Wanda Commercial, a behemoth with ever-expanding boundaries, has long habitually entered the snake-eating mode, and the most terrible thing is that we don't know it.

Reflected in the balance sheet, wanda plaza is the city center. If the city center is not listed, it will be indigestion.

Or jokingly, Wanda Commercial became a husband by picking up girls, which is an unbearable price during its growth.

In fact, as early as 20 16, Wang Jianlin defined Wanda Commercial: Wanda should take the road of light assets, and light assets are divided into two categories, one is called investment and the other is called cooperation.

Light assets are the darling of the investment circle and the star on the cusp. There is a lot of room for the valuation of light assets, but it is also a difficult craft.

For example, Wanda Commercial turned out to be a hammer, which was deeply smashed in the market, but it also hurt. Now it will become a nail, firmly embedded in the market. This requires whether its nail cap is big enough and whether the nail tip is sharp.

This may also be the basic law of Wanda's commercial light assets and the need to manage its own balance sheet emotional curve.

It is said that this is an open dialogue:

Q: Why doesn't Wanda pay 30% of the rent for a penny?

A: The sign is ringing.

Q: Based on the brand?

A: Of course not.

Q: What does it depend on?

A: Others score 70%, which is greater than his own 100%. The successful development and implementation of wanda plaza light assets standard template and engineering management software have enabled wanda plaza's investment return to reach 2 digits on average, which is twice the industry average.

The skeptic's understanding is: Wanda takes 30% of the rent, and there are so many companies to cooperate, which has tangible benefits.

Behind the light assets is the revolutionary change of the coordination mechanism of the whole commercial supply chain, which involves the origin of enterprises. Wang Jianlin showed scalpels and precision instruments to Wanda Commercial.

During the two years of 20 16-20 17, Wang Jianlin threw out five asset packages in one breath, each containing five wanda plaza, accounting for 25 wanda plaza.

The counterparties are CITIC Trust, Minsheng Trust and Zhujiang Life Insurance, all of which are rich institutional investors.

Wang Jianlin only earns money for services, and institutional investors pay for the construction of wanda plaza.

This is a small step for Wang Jianlin, but a big step for China's commercial real estate industry. Institutional investors are willing to spend a lot of money to enter the market with real money and accept Wang Jianlin's light asset model.

This symbolic sky-high transaction is a metaphor. The ice-breaking journey of asset securitization in China has risen from the bottom up to the practical stage.

From 20 17 to 20 18, Wang Jianlin packaged and sold the 13 cultural tourism project and 76 hotels to Sunac and R&F respectively. This is the shocking sale of Wang Jianlin disclosed by the media.

Little known is that during this period, Wang Jianlin also sold a hotel management company in Guangzhou.

Externally, this is a shocking sale, but internally, it is a shocking divestiture. In 20 18, Wanda Commercial transferred 14 companies to Wanda Real Estate; In 20 19, we continued to transfer 22 subsidiaries and completed the divestiture of domestic real estate business.

In terms of financial performance, in 20 18 years, the scale of Wanda's commercial inventory immediately declined by 5 1.0 1%.

On the other side of the battlefield, in 20 19, of the 43 wanda plaza newly opened by Wanda, 29 were "light assets" projects. Of the 45 wanda plaza opened in 2020, 32 are "light assets" projects.

Just behind the negative media views on Wang Jianlin's "selling model", Wanda Commercial has gone through Chung Shan Man on the road of light assets.

three

Business management is a trillion-dollar market. Wanda's business management scale is far from reaching the ceiling, but it has just begun.

From this perspective, Wanda Commercial also has many imperfect pain points. This is also a bright spot for Wanda Commercial to constantly challenge and stimulate the market.

This once made the online and offline cooperation between Wanda Commercial and JD.COM and Suning.cn very subtle. Some media kindly reminded Wang Jianlin that Liu had to take a warning.

Change is both an opponent and a friend. JD.COM is a mirror-like existence, reminding Wang Jianlin to be especially alert to the path dependence of successful big companies.

In Wang Jianlin's strategic palace, it is normal for the arrangement and combination within the company to change. Different arms cannot be fought separately, and when to fight together and when to fight separately depends on the needs of strategic objectives.

By September 30, 2020, the original 170 real estate companies have retired 164. Wanda automobile, marine life, cultural tourism, etc. Those who are not closely related to similar industries have also turned to consulting service companies.

At the level of controlling stake in Bingsheng Technology, a joint venture company, although Wanda's shareholding ratio is 5 1%, Wang Jianlin did not insist on controlling stake. The company only sent three directors and did not control the operation.

This is also Wang Jianlin's theory of corporate species evolution: what do you want, what do you want to be, and what do you want to do.

The profitability of Wanda Commercial is an ability, but becoming a money-making machine is the biggest misunderstanding of it.

Its essence is: commercial efficiency comes first; With the efficiency of perpetual motion machine, we can maintain the eternal ability to make money.

The standard to measure the success of Wanda's business is not how high the valuation is after listing, but whether it can improve the industrial chain efficiency of China's business through operation, make users experience better, make the city better and make life better.

In the final analysis, it is the same sentence: wanda plaza is the center of the city, and wanda plaza is a beautiful life.

Quoting the classic station in the movie Forrest Gump;

How many times must a person look up to see the sky?

My friend, the answer is floating in the wind.

Translated into Chinese is:

How many times does a person have to look up to see the sky?

The answer floated in the air. Study on ten thousand rooms

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