The market has changed suddenly! In September, the price of new live pigs was "crash warning", but the price increase of feed was even more terrible.

The latest news! At the beginning of September, the pig price "changed face" again, but the feed price suddenly rose! More than 50 feed enterprises, such as New Hope, Haida and Dabeinong, announced price increases! But what is more dangerous is that the profits of many feed enterprises in the first half of the year have declined in the opposite direction! For example, the gross profit of Haida dropped by 10.68%, and the gross profit of science and technology in Zheng Hong dropped by an astonishing 54.77%. Will the difficulties of feed industry be transmitted to animal husbandry? ......

Pig price changes face

On September 7, 2022, the national pig price map was green! The pig prices in as many as 23 provinces and cities as Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Beijing, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Sichuan, Guizhou and Tibet have "changed their faces"!

It is worth noting that the price of pigs has dropped three times in seven days since September, and each time it was knocked down at the high point of "12 yuan/Jin".

In the short term, it means that the upper limit of pig price has arrived; In the long run, with the continuous increase in the number of sows since April, the number of piglets increased by 7.5% in July, and there is no room for further increase in pig prices.

Many people are optimistic about the price of pigs on holidays, but in recent years, "every festival will fall" has become a common phenomenon. Only the peak of bacon production in autumn and winter is the key opportunity to boost demand, but the follow-up market is harvested in advance.

The pig price market is a circle, so more and more pig operators attach importance to the concept of "average profit", and average the overall profit of raising pigs for three or even five years to calculate the profit level of their own pigs.

Pig price chart on September 7.

Feed skyrocketed!

Unlike the "ups and downs" of pig prices, feed prices have always been firm and upward!

Feed prices have risen rapidly since September. More than 50 feed enterprises, including New Hope, Haida, Dabei Nong, Anyou and Tang Renshen, announced price increases, involving Guizhou, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan, Jiangsu and other provinces and cities. The latest overall increase is 50-50/ ton.

As far as classification is concerned:

Most of the full-price materials are raised by 50 yuan/ton;

Sow feed increased by 50-75 yuan/ton;

Most of the textbooks rose by 100 yuan/ton;

The feed for suckling pigs increased by 50- 100 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 75 yuan/ton;

Concentrate increases 100-250 yuan/ton, with the maximum increase of 150 yuan/ton.

In the past five years, great changes have taken place in both animal husbandry and feed industry. The main body of animal husbandry has been reshuffled, and the price of feed has risen from less than 20 18 to 3.88 yuan/kg today! The rising curve is almost irreversible!

Looking ahead, the trend of feed prices is also not optimistic!

In August, the average price of soybean meal was 4342.96 yuan/ton, up 4.84% from the previous month. In September, the domestic soybean meal reached a maximum of 4,700 yuan/ton, and it is currently maintained at around 4,500 yuan/ton.

Judging from the poor situation of agriculture in Europe and America this year, the grain price will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the second half of the year!

According to authoritative American media reports, American agriculture was seriously damaged this year due to extreme weather! The American Federation of Agriculture pointed out that compared with last year, the crop output in the United States may drop by as much as one third this year.

Experts say that the climate has changed the weather in many agricultural states, low yield may become the norm, and the high price of crops may not fade soon.

In addition, the European Union also lowered its agricultural product output forecast for the second consecutive month, and the corn output was lowered from 65.8 million tons to 59.3 million tons, with a range of 10%! Soybean production is also expected to decrease by 15%! According to FAO data, global food prices rose 13% in July!

It can be seen that the difficulty of pig industry lies not only in epidemic diseases and market risks, but also in the more pigs, the lower the price of pigs and the more expensive the feed. ......

The test of feed industry is severe!

Unfortunately, although feed prices have been rising, feed enterprises have not achieved profit growth, and the living environment is equally difficult.

Nine feed companies announced the gross profit margin of feed in the first half of the year, and all of them fell year-on-year! For example, the gross profit margin of Haida Group decreased by 10.68%, and that of Zheng Hong Science and Technology decreased by an astonishing 54.77%! It can be seen that although feed enterprises have repeatedly raised prices in the voice of spit, they have not made much money.

And the profit has decreased, and the sales volume has also decreased! According to statistics, from June to June 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 6,543,800+0,365,300 tons, down 4.3% year-on-year. Among them, the output of pig feed decreased the most, down 6.8% year-on-year!

This is because the epidemic in the first half of the year led to a sluggish consumer market, low pig prices, and farmers are trying their best to spend the winter, which eventually led to the same blow to the feed industry.

It is true that the prices of corn, wheat and soybean meal rose by 5.08%, 9.55% and 14.6 1% respectively in the first half of the year, but the weighted average price of compound feed products nationwide only rose by 6.9% year-on-year, and the increase of feed was much lower than that of raw materials!

This shows that feed enterprises are trying to help farmers bear certain cost pressure in order to survive, but under the background of "the global food crisis is getting worse", the prices of conventional feed raw materials will only keep rising, and farmers have gradually become "unattainable"! Feed enterprises can't blindly raise prices and lower interest rates, which is not conducive to themselves and animal husbandry!

Animal husbandry strives to "reduce costs"

In recent ten years, farmers in China have carried three mountains-environmental protection mountain, epidemic disease mountain and cost mountain!

Many pig farmers who carried the first two mountains could not carry the last cost mountain.

Because there are all kinds of hills on this mountain, such as "environmental protection, non-plague, epidemic disease and feed", "whoever has enemies will be advised to raise pigs" is more than a joke.

However, under the struggle full of blood and tears, pig farmers have indeed achieved "increasing efficiency and reducing costs".

According to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:

In July 2022, the cost per pig was 2098 yuan, 202 1, and the value was as high as 2484 yuan! This means that under the background of feed price rising for a whole year, farmers have reduced the cost in 400 yuan!

Coincidentally, the cost of large-scale breeding of each pig has also dropped from 2,605 yuan to 2,027 yuan, as high as 570 yuan!

It can be seen that whether it is the pig industry or the feed industry, it is impossible to "increase efficiency and reduce costs", but whether there is a day that makes him feel painful and whether the market has reached a stage that concerns his life and death!

At present, most feed enterprises only rely on "raising prices for customers" and "lowering interest rates for themselves" to survive. In essence, they just sit in empty seats and constantly compress their living space! At this time, truly responsible feed enterprises should clearly realize that food prices are difficult to reverse, give up illusions, carry out technological revolution, and accelerate the process of "reducing the substitution of corn and soybean meal".

Feed enterprises may be forced to raise prices in the short term, but it is more important to find ways to help farmers cope with the "food crisis and rising raw material prices." Every practitioner has a deep understanding of the truth!