I want to borrow 654.38 million yuan to buy a house with a term of 2 years. How much is the monthly contribution?

Lang Xianping, a famous Hong Kong economist.

"99% of white-collar workers and their families in China are going bankrupt. And it is bound to go bankrupt! There's nowhere to run! This may happen in the next 2- 10 years. You can try to doubt this number. But this is bound to happen, and it is by no means alarmist. " Just as I predicted that employees of state-owned enterprises in China would lose their jobs, no one believed me at that time. But it did happen. Because in a developing country like China, it is inevitable to exchange inflation and reform for economic development. And the pain caused by every reform is borne by the people. Whether it is a confused educated youth when going to the countryside or a large number of laid-off workers when the reform and opening up led to the closure of a large number of state-owned enterprises. If they can be far-sighted, then I think they may leave themselves a little way out. However, due to excessive trust in documents and excessive confidence that life will not change suddenly, their lives are tragic. ?

Some people say that the government will not sit idly by while white-collar workers go bankrupt. In fact, the Government certainly does not want to do so. But some things ... I don't know. Think about the laid-off workers in those days. Caused such a big social shock. what can I do? Today's white-collar workers will go bankrupt tomorrow. ?

Over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly. But the old system has not completely changed. Various important industries still implement the government monopoly mechanism in their operations. Such as banking, finance, metallurgy, energy, information, transportation, medical care, education and land. In the early days of reform and opening up, it was impossible for China to carry out all-round reform and opening up to these things. But today, the contradiction brought by monopoly operation is increasingly prominent. ?

The first is real estate. Due to the imperfect legal system in China, especially in the fields of finance and reform, all kinds of mistakes have led to the continuous rise of real estate. With the increase of real estate and the concentration of migrants in big cities. Therefore, the income of new urban workers, the so-called "white-collar workers", is also rising on the surface. Take Beijing as an example, the monthly salary of 3000- 1.5 thousand can be seen everywhere. But this part of the income is mainly used to pay for renting or repaying loans. ?

To deeply understand why 99% of white-collar families go bankrupt, we must first understand why housing prices are so high. Where is the height? Does money work? White-collar workers here refer to people who are buying or preparing to buy a house. ) and the related impact brought by the development trend. This article will be explained to you in three stages. ?

1: the first factor leading to the skyrocketing housing prices: the liberalization of loans under the competition of banks. ?

In fact, the explosion of housing prices is mainly because ordinary people are paying for the government's mistakes. For example, a developer used to borrow 6,543,800 yuan from a bank to develop a house. If you don't pay back, it's bad luck for him, because all banks are a system. If you don't pay back the money, you will never have a chance to turn over. However, China is open to the outside world on the basis of banking reform, so ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank all operate independently for the sake of competition among banks. It should have been a good thing. But the problem is that these banks are not private, but state-owned. We can easily imagine. What happens when a developer borrows 6,543,800 yuan from ICBC? He only needs to develop a house with 5 million yuan, then raise the price, and then mortgage the house under development from the Agricultural Bank to 20 million yuan according to his price standard, and then use 6.5438+million of the 20 million yuan to develop a house with a higher price and mortgage 40 million yuan from the Construction Bank. This is the snowball-like crazy loan model. ?

It doesn't matter whether the house can be sold. The key is that house prices should be high and prices cannot be reduced. Anyway, the bank's money is not private, because there are "legal" high-retail properties as collateral, so it is easier and easier to borrow money from the bank. ?

Then the result is that house prices can only climb but not fall! Because you can't fall! Once it falls, the money lent by the bank will never come back. This is a government bank, government money! Therefore, in order to block this black hole of funds, some bribed experts and the media began to create public opinion crazily and coerce people to buy houses by various means of public opinion. ?

For example, land resources are so tight that if you don't buy a house, you will have to live in the suburbs in the future. People want to buy a house. In fact, it is impossible to live in the city center. Urban residents are a process of exchanging the old for the new. Those who want to work live in the city, and the elderly like to live in the suburbs when they retire. As long as the population does not explode, there will be no situation in which office workers cannot live in the city center. Although these public opinions have caused many people to buy houses, it is only in this way that house prices are not as high as they are now. Then the government made a second mistake. ?

2. The second mistake that led to soaring house prices: China's characteristic mortgage. ?

Mortgage is a very popular system in the west, and it is also very suitable. But once this system is applied to China, there will be some problems. Because in terms of a large system. All banks are state-owned, not private. Therefore, it is impossible to control loans. As long as the documents are meaningful, people can get loans. ?

In order to alleviate the financial black hole caused by the first mistake as soon as possible. The government began to implement the personal mortgage loan system to sell houses. I often cite the examples of American wives and old ladies in China to entice people to take out mortgages. Someone did mortgage it, and it was a crazy mortgage. As long as someone has some "relationship" with the bank. They first mortgaged a house of 800,000 yuan, paid a down payment of 654.38 million yuan, and then borrowed 700,000 yuan from the bank. Then increase the price of this house to 6.5438+0.8 million for sale. At this time, their relatives or parents will buy again, and they will also mortgage 300,000 down payment and then borrow 6,543.8+0.5 million from the bank. And then I left it alone. What if they don't pay the loan? Banks like to accept or not. Anyway, according to the contract, I can't pay. You can take the house. We are even. ?

So the house, which has been turned over several times and its price has risen several times, has returned to the hands of the government and banks. This explains why many new buildings were bought by the "real estate speculators" just after they were repaired. They didn't bet that the house would appreciate. Instead, take the house to clean up the bank. ?

What if the bank gets the house? I dare not reduce the price. I have to increase the price and continue to sell. So now ordinary people don't want to buy a house at a really reasonable price! Even houses bought directly from developers may change hands several times and return to banks and developers. To put it bluntly, at present, only 2,500 of the 8,000/flat house is the house price, and 5,500 is the black hole of funds brought about by decision-making mistakes! Which means you're trying to wipe someone's ass. ?

Third question: When will white-collar families go bankrupt?

Then we studied why the house price would go up, and then we studied the inevitability of China's so-called white-collar family bankruptcy. ?

First of all, the income of foreign white-collar workers is indeed high, but it is valuable. The so-called white-collar workers in China are generally of poor quality. The internal consumption of Chinese enterprises is serious. Everyone is contemptuous and everyone is stubborn. So it is no wonder that foreign-funded enterprises began to exclaim as soon as they entered the Chinese mainland market: "You can't recruit people to run enterprises in China!" I also have a deep understanding of this. Then someone will say, "Since white-collar workers are not worth the price now, why can they still get such a salary?" In fact, this is the quantum effect brought by the real estate boom. A large amount of money lost by banks flows to the market through a few hands. These people began to invest wildly in other parts of China. Because they also know that real estate is about to collapse. They are digesting these funds quickly in such a round of investment boom. They invest in the Internet, high technology, entertainment and so on. But at least the salary should be enough for employees to pay the monthly rent or monthly supply of the house. Therefore, it is precisely because of the soaring housing prices that the wage level of urban population in China has been relatively improved. I don't believe you can work out the average income of white-collar workers in your city by yourself. Once you pay the monthly house payment, how much money do you have left? I don't think it is necessary to elaborate on this question. Everyone has a good idea. So I can say that once the real estate collapses, it is your salary that will collapse immediately. ?

Many white-collar workers I know have bought houses. Their abacus is simple: "The couple's monthly net income 12000 plus all kinds of tax insurance. What is paying 3000 rooms? I can buy another set! " Yeah, it's nothing. But everything is expensive because the house is expensive. Food is expensive, transportation is expensive, tuition is expensive, and medical expenses are more expensive! ! ! Therefore, after paying the house payment, you can't save any money except the living expenses. Even if you save some money, you can't keep up with the normal inflation rate. The problem is that if the status quo can be maintained all the time, it should be no problem in theory. The money you earned in these twenty years can just make up for the losses caused by the government's two mistakes. ?

But this is also the problem. With the end of the five-year buffer period of WTO5, a large number of foreign communication, banking, medical and insurance companies will enter China one after another. No one can stop you from depositing money in Citigroup and HSBC. Excuse me, who would like to put their money in the state-owned banks in China with so many bad debts by then? No matter how the government takes measures, there may be a run, so it is hard to say what will happen then. However, one thing is certain, China's state-owned banks will face enormous pressure. It will be difficult to increase the loan because the bank has no money to lend! At the same time, a large number of foreign-funded enterprises with high-quality talents will enter China, which will inevitably bring about a strong impact on the market, the closure of a large number of existing enterprises and the unemployment of white-collar workers. That is to say. Once foreign-funded enterprises join the competition, 99% of white-collar workers in China will face employment pressure in the big environment! ?

Moreover, once foreign banks have accumulated funds and started to invest in real estate, the houses built will be very cheap because they are normal operating procedures, which will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in real estate across the country. As I said just now, as soon as the house price falls, the salary income of your company will follow! However, the repayment price of the house you bought before has not dropped, so you can't afford the high loan. Then your house will be taken away by the bank and your deposit will be frozen directly. Therefore, the white-collar workers in China city in the future are most likely to be the same as the employees of state-owned enterprises in China decades ago. Twenty years of hard work, in the end, draw water with a sieve! ?

How to avoid bankruptcy? ?

Seeing this, you should understand that not buying a house is a good way to avoid bankruptcy. But I also want to remind you that in order to keep the property market from falling, they have another way, that is, they advocate that ordinary people are not men without buying a house! Forget it, it really has some effect. Nowadays, the first sentence when people open their mouths is: "Do you have a room?" It seems that you are a houseless eunuch. I was so angry that I didn't even have the strength to swear. Others posted in this post bar of Baidu Shui Mu Zhou Ping: "Where do you live without buying a house?" I wonder, is there a necessary connection between living and buying? What's the difference between selling a house that doesn't belong to you and renting it to you in China? (Laughter). Not to mention bandit-like property and forced demolition of people who are not people! Isn't this the Emperor's New Clothes? However, due to WTO regulations, China's publishing industry and media industry are still closed. Then public opinion to save the market will become the last trump card in the hands of the government and developers. ?

Therefore, when we are faced with a lot of rhetoric, we should still use our brains more. In the future, we will hear more and more stories about real estate, which will become more and more outrageous! For example, when a bricklayer recently advocated that house prices were not expensive, he said, "What? Even if the annual salary is 50,000, the couple will be 6.5438+10,000 a year and 500,000 in five years. So the house price is definitely not expensive. " I'm surprised someone nodded yes? Perhaps this is true for this kind of brick house or this kind of brick house that has evolved to not eat, drink, get sick, wear or move, and never need support when parents die. So everyone should pay attention to be vigilant. ?

Conclusion:?

White-collar workers who have bought or are ready to buy a house will inevitably collapse with the collapse of housing prices, which will be a slow process. As short as two years, as long as ten years. But this is an irreversible trend. Therefore, it is not alarmist to say that 99% of urban white-collar workers in China are facing bankruptcy! Today, every money you give to the bank for housing distribution is a hole filled by the government for real estate speculators, and only a small part is the real house payment. When the environment changes tomorrow and you don't have enough money to fill the hole, you will be kicked back to your hometown by the market and banks, and a group of new people will fill it. Don't believe it? We'll see! -PS: Why did I say 99%? Because as far as I know, 99% of people start buying houses as soon as their monthly salary exceeds 5,000 yuan, or even 3,000 yuan or 4,000 yuan. The young couple don't know anything, and it will be miserable to buy a life. I just feel sorry for them. Of course, if you are the 1% wise man, please try to save them. It is better to be happy alone than with others. ?

What are the four big tricks played by China people?

The first big thing: real estate?

What does it mean to buy a house? This means that you have your own house. Yes, you think so, but you can't own this house in China, you can only rent it to you. Because the house is yours and the land is not yours, the land use right is only 70 years (70 years from now). It was War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression's time. Who saw the house at that time? )。 Houses will generally encounter the demolition or renovation of old houses for about 30 years. In other words, you spend money to buy a house, but you can only get the actual effect of renting a house. Of course, this is not the worst. Worst of all, decades later, you find yourself cheated! A group of hooligans rushed into the house you bought with your life savings and drew a big word! Then throw all your belongings out of the house like garbage, regardless of your pleading, even give you a nickname of nail house in the newspaper, and you will know what despair is when you are abused by the public! ?

China has a famous joke about real estate, the content is:

Once upon a time, there was a landlord who had a lot of land and found many long-term workers to work. The landlord built many unity buildings for long-term workers to live in. One day, the landlord's counselor said to the landlord: the landlord and the long-term workers have some money in their hands these years. It's not cost-effective to let them live in your house and pay the rent every month. Anyway, they will live forever. You might as well sell the house to them and call it-public houses for sale! Tell them that the house will always be theirs and they can get back the money they have saved in recent years. The landlord said, yes, what about the rent? The counselor said: manage it well and give it a Japanese name, called property fee! The landlord implemented it quickly and made a lot of money. The long-term workers are so happy! ?

After a few years, the landlord's village has developed into a town, and more and more rich people have no place to live. The counselor said to the landlord: the landlord and the long-term workers have been rich again in recent years. Let's build a new house for them and name it. They gave us money. We tore down the house, built a new one and told them to buy it and sell it to others. This time, some long-term workers have implemented it again. ?

A few years later, the landlord's village has developed into a big city, with more rich people and more valuable land. The counselor said to the landlord, "boss, let's tear down the houses of these long-term workers and build villas in this place." If the demolished land is built and sold to those rich people, it will still make a fortune. The landlord said, "What if the long-term workers don't do it? "The counselor said: I will give them more money and make a name for monetization. I want to build a house next to our pigsty and make a name for affordable housing. I will build a carriage road and let them buy a house there. The landlord said: What if they don't have enough money? The counselor said: I lent it to them from our bank, with interest of 6 cents a year. I can still have money with this money, there is no risk. The landlord has realized it again. Long-term workers got the money, and the landlord's affordable housing was built until now. Long-term workers have to wait in line for the house. Until now, they are still waiting ...?

As a result, the long-term workers began to make trouble, and the landlord was a little panicked and asked the counselor what to do. The counselor said: Hurry up and inform the long-term workers that the house will fall in price. If we don't buy it, we will rent our pigsty to them. As a result, after so many years, all the long-term workers have lost, and they are still renting a house forever! ?

Although this joke is a bit exaggerated, isn't it true? Some people say that in this case? Why do people in China want to buy a house? You bought it like crazy? Why? It's just the result of ignorant education, just like in the 1960s, it was argued that people must buy three big pieces: watches, sewing machines and bicycles before they can get married. In 1970s, it was argued that people must buy four new products: TV, refrigerator and washing machine. Only when a telephone is installed can they get married and have children. I remember that it costs thousands of dollars to install a telephone (a town with a per capita income of less than 200), and when it costs tens of thousands of dollars in Beijing and Shanghai, people have to wait in line to buy a number to make them feel good. How similar is it to buying a house today? ?

Today, all nonsense scholars have started this old trick of fooling the people: white-collar workers have new standards, and successful people have chosen X-ring X-road small apartments and X-ring X-road commercial and residential apartments. I have charged you hundreds of thousands of dollars, and I will also charge you rent (new property fee), bank interest, various interest rate hikes, policies under various excuses and so on every month. In a word, I'm afraid you won't be killed, and I'm afraid you'll die miserably enough! How can ordinary people be happy to be fooled? I am so angry that I am wet all over! ?