From 2000 ... to 20-..., forward or backward?

Twenty years later, China's economic strength is 10 times that of Japan.

The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh China Producers' Party ended on 19781February 22nd, and it has been exactly thirty years since then. It is right to end the day, because two decisions were announced that day: first, China's open reform; Second, Deng Xiaoping came back and was granted the supreme power. There were fewer than a few people who believed at that time, and there are still a few people who don't believe today. Believe it or not, those who still think that China's economic development in the past 30 years is not a miracle are idiots.

I am a historian, from elective courses in school, to exchanges between teachers and friends, to research discussions and interesting reading. However, sitting down to write this article and looking back on my life, I lost confidence in the historical record. History is written by people. Do you believe it? Looking back on my 73 years of existence, my feelings about this country are very different from those I read about his family. Academic scholars write China classics and use literature. I have never read a book that I agree with. On the other hand, I don't agree with many comments made by friends or online visitors about China. Friends often have different views.

How a person views the world he lives in depends on the information he reads or hears, plus his own observations and experiences. I am no exception. Different, whose story should future historians believe? Only God knows whether my views on China's economic reform are outstanding or not, but my own experience, study and research methods are different, so my views are inevitably "sui generis". I have followed China for so long and written countless articles. People who write Chinese economic history in the future will have a greater chance to consider what I said. Truth is important, and China's revised truth is important. I sincerely hope that what I wrote is true, not misleading.

This is a strange encounter, and the opportunity is indeed a coincidence. The Japanese boy who was born about six years ago had great courage and bombed Hong Kong and Pearl Harbor on the same day. Soon after, the mother fled to China with her children. Experienced the Sino-Japanese War and the struggle between countries. /kloc-entered the primary school affiliated to Huaying Middle School in Foshan in 0/945. At the beginning of 1948, it was not liberated. Huaying cancelled the project of students getting up every morning to recite Premier Sun's will, and the national anthem of "Three People's Principles" that must be sung every morning was strangely changed to March of the Volunteers. /kloc-returned to Hong Kong in the summer of 0/948, and went to Guangzhou more often in the summer after that. Every day, I hear from my elders about public-private partnership and the three evils against five evils. 1957 After going to North America, the Great Leap Forward, People's Commune, Big Steelmaking, Cultural Revolution and so on followed. At that time, the two sisters were in China, and many scholars interested in China were friends in American universities. The posters collected in the library cost six yuan each. Later, I learned that many of them were counterfeit prints from Hong Kong businessmen.

What I learned is also a coincidence. This paper specializes in price theory, focusing on property rights and transaction costs. Because of the obvious contract structure of tenant farmers, the theory of contract economy has been stimulated. Let me look at the system from the perspective of contract. This is the Theoretical Basis of China's Economic System, which I published not long ago. It is not easy to find another person born in the Sino-Japanese War. China is still alive today after 30 years of reform, and he still has the courage to write two rather difficult economic articles every week. As I said, there has been no big change in human history before, and I have a part in the whole process. At that time, the wind will blow up, and there is always a better reason to do what he has learned and write more articles.

1After visiting two sisters in Guangzhou in September, 979, 10 published "There are thousands of laws, only the Economic Law" in New Newspaper Monthly. This should be China's first article on property rights and transaction costs. It was many years before I knew that many friends in Beijing had read that article. I was the first person who studied western economics and was optimistic about China's economic reform. It was 198 1 year, and I wrote "Will China Go Capitalist?" "Manuscript, rigorous theory, clearly infer that China will move towards a market economy. Unfortunately, countless colleagues and friends disagreed, and it was not published until 1982. This little book is right not only in the general direction of China, but also in the details. If so many colleagues don't object, I will write the details more boldly, and first write out the history that China has followed for more than 20 years.

I never hide my ability to infer from theoretical logic (laughs), but what I have been hiding all these years is that there was a secret in China's optimistic inference. That is, I am not against criticizing many people in China, but aside from these, the descendants of the Chinese people are a great nation, and it is not easy for other nations to stand up and do anything. The success of China's economic reform can not be attributed to corruption, deception, power struggle, rule of law, etc., but to countless cadres who have experienced what I have experienced, saw the opportunity and stood up and made great efforts. China people have long been famous for their business skills. When they see profits, they all run out. What about the working people? It's not easy to find so many hard foods. China people are smart, eat hard and learn fast, which is a limited secret that I believed in that year.

I like to compare the economic development of China in the past 30 years with the golden age of Japan shortly after the war, because there are many similarities. Japanese culture originated in China, but China's is thicker, purer and slightly better. The population density of Japan is higher than that of China, and the total population of China is ten times that of Japan. A lot of land in China is useless, but in terms of per capita available land and natural resources, China seems to be slightly better, and the two are almost the same. The advantage of Japan over China is that when the economy took off in the 1950s, their level of science, technology and knowledge was far superior to that of China in the early 1980s. Unfortunately for Japan, they made two big mistakes in economic policy. First, the yen appreciated sharply, from 360 to 80. Second, the ban on the import of agricultural products made the land price rise too high in the early 1980s. I published Disappointment in Japan in the mid-1980s.

This brings an unavoidable problem. The population of China is ten times that of Japan. Can its future economic strength be equal to ten Japan? If so, when does the crystal ball say?

Readers may not know or remember that Japan's economic development in the 1960s and 1970s really scared the western developed countries into calling for help. Japanese goods, from the "Japanese alarm clock" mentioned in jokes to extremely accurate quartz watches, to cameras, toys, textiles, cars and ocean-going ships, all frighten western devils. At that time, I was in the United States, and my friends in the industry had a joke: the Japanese have an absolute advantage in everything! A small Japan can turn the whole world economy upside down and make everyone want to kill. Wouldn't it be fun if China became ten Japanese? Inferred from the left and from the right, I think as long as China doesn't lift a rock and drop it on its own feet, and the advanced countries generously cut some slack, I can't think of any reason why China's economic strength won't be as strong as ten Japanese. It should pass. If China is not like Japan, it has taken two big steps in policy.

How long will it take for China's economic strength to reach the level of ten Japanese? Three years ago, I calculated that it would take about twenty years as long as I walked correctly.

Today is the 30th anniversary of the reform and opening-up, and the cultural tradition in China doesn't allow me to say anything negative. My wife knew that I had written this article and said, "Stop criticizing" and say yes. So I will talk about my own experience and let my friends in Beijing know the background of my repeated complaints over the years. If I were still alive in 20 years, I would only see three Japanese people in China. I don't know who to take it out on.

In terms of academic career, I thank China for his reform. This experience not only inspired me to write countless articles, but also the Economic System of China published not long ago was so important that I felt I could accept it. Three years ago, on my seventieth birthday, I said that China's economic system was the best I know, and China was in an uproar, which was followed by countless criticisms. I'd like to add here that considering the limitation of population and resources, the county competition system in China is the best economic system I know. Beijing holds a treasure, hoping that they will attach importance to this system, modify it, define it, relax it, then maintain it and increase the competitiveness between counties. If so, how can ten Japanese be true?