20 19 the latest division of first, second, third and fourth tier cities, which cities have the most potential and which are the most dangerous?

On May 24th, CBN- New First-tier Cities Research Institute released the 20 19 version of the ranking of new first-tier cities. The list data still uses the evaluation indicators of the previous year, including the concentration of commercial resources, urban hubs, urban population activity, lifestyle diversity and future plasticity; The sample includes 337 cities above prefecture level in China.

The Chief of Staff carefully studied and compared the city ranking reports of 20 18 and 20 19, from which we could get a glimpse of the changes and laws of China's urban development. Today, I will talk about the potential of urban development through this report.

Let's take a look at the changes compared with the city ranking of 20 18.

Beijing has returned to the first place, and Guangzhou has not fallen behind.

20 18 established ranking of first-tier cities: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

Established ranking of first-tier cities in 20 19: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Judging from the comparison of rankings in the past two years, Beijing has returned to the top of the list, and its position in the north is still stable; Guangzhou, which has been "beaten" by the media behind the first-tier cities, has also surpassed Shenzhen this time. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have always loved each other and killed each other. This time, Guangzhou surpassed Shenzhen mainly because the goodwill index of big brands to Guangzhou surpassed Shenzhen for the first time in the past year.

And if only from the economic and financial point of view, the strength of Shenzhen is much higher than that of Guangzhou. After all, compared with Shenzhen, Guangzhou can be said to be a father who loves his mother, and its fiscal revenue has to be turned over to the central government in addition to the provincial government. It can be said that it is the one with the greatest financial pressure in the first-tier cities.

But the development of Guangzhou is still visible to the naked eye. According to statistics, from 20 15 to 20 18, the population of Guangzhou increased by 420,600, 542,400, 454,900 and 406,000 respectively. According to the Guangzhou 2035 plan, it is proposed that the permanent population should be controlled within180,000 in 2020, and there is still room for growth of 365,438+10,000 in the future. I'm afraid Guangzhou's backwardness is a joke.

In the future, the imagination of housing prices in first-tier cities is limited, but what is certain is that this must be the most stable expectation that can be seen.

15 The new urban line has the most potential value.

Among these cities, there is no doubt that the new first-tier cities of the seed team are the most concerned, namely: Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Xi 'an, Sujinji, Nanjing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao, Shenyang, Ningbo and Kunming. After all, this is the greatest possibility for the future development of China.

In fact, the chief of staff mentioned in the previous article that the most important thing for future buyers is: the new front line. This is not to emphasize that first-tier cities are not worthy of attention, but that established first-tier cities have entered a slowly rising channel. In 20 17, the population of Beijing and Shanghai has experienced negative growth; Mainly lies in the industrial reconciliation in Beijing and Shanghai in recent years, while cleaning up illegal buildings and strengthening the management of group renting houses. In such cities, they no longer simply pursue the "quantity" of population, but pay more attention to the "quality" of population.

Simply put, the fastest-growing cities in the future are new first-tier cities.

The battle for new first-line leading cities?

Every ranking will not satisfy everyone. Everyone thinks that their home will develop into new york. Dare you say that other people's cities have no future? There may be a fight.

As far as the new first-line list is concerned, it can be seen that the rankings of Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Wuhan have not changed compared with 20 18. Among them, the most controversial is the new first-line leading city? Chengdu or Hangzhou?

The controversial point is that Chengdu has no obvious advantages except population and transportation. As for who will become the leader of the new first-tier cities in the future, the chief of staff believes that this can be verified by time.

Kunming entered the new front line of the list strongly, while Wuxi was backward.

Kunming has replaced Wuxi as a new first-tier city, and the ranking of new first-tier cities is 15, and Wuxi is backward. This is really surprising. After all, Wuxi, which is known as little shanghai, has an economic aggregate more than twice that of Kunming.

Comparing the list of 20 18, we find that Kunming ranks 16 in 20 18, just one step away from the new first-tier cities. Kunming can enter a new front line, thanks to the improvement of talent attraction. Last year, this index ranked only 23rd in China, and this year it has risen to 12. At the same time, Kunming's lifestyle diversity index has also made great progress.

Let's look at these new first-tier cities again and find that these new first-tier cities are either provincial capitals, economically strong cities or national central cities. The Chief of Staff boldly asserted that the list of new first-tier cities will still be in and out in the future, and these cities basically meet the above three characteristics.

The following is a comparison from the perspective of housing prices to see the potential of these cities:

According to the data of housing prices in China, the Chief of Staff probably divided 15 city into three echelons:

The house price is 30,000 echelon: Hangzhou and Nanjing.

Price 20,000 echelon: Tianjin, Qingdao, Suzhou, Ningbo,

The echelon with a house price of 10,000 yuan: Wuhan, Chengdu, Dongguan, Xi 'an, Zhengzhou, Kunming, Chongqing, Changsha and Shenyang.

Suzhou must be mentioned here. Frankly speaking, I am optimistic about Suzhou. The "skyrocketing housing prices" after the year has basic economic support. Of course, under the control of policy, I still can't be too early.

Let's look at cities with low housing prices. According to normal logic, new first-tier cities with a house price of 10,000 will have greater development potential. Wuhan, Chengdu, Xi 'an, Chongqing, Changsha and Zhengzhou can be said to occupy the light ring of central cities by virtue of superior conditions, superior geographical conditions, the advantages of policy resources of provincial capitals and national central cities, and the rise of central China. Among these cities, Changsha has the lowest house price, with an average price of over 10,000 yuan. Of course, this is entirely due to Changsha's "perfect" control policy, and its future development can be expected.

Look at Xi 'an, who has been in the limelight for the past two years. Xi' an average price 14000 or so. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the house price in Xi 'an is still rising, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%, which is also due to the performance of Xi 'an in the past two years and the rapid economic development. In 20 18, Xi' an's population growth rate was the third in China, and Xi' an's GDP exceeded 800 billion yuan, ranking first among sub-provincial cities. Chiefs of staff of other cities will not go into details here, as mentioned in previous articles.

These 23 cities are at stake!

This list reminds the chief of staff that some time ago, 2 1 Century Economic News published an article about urban population mobility, which included a chart. After counting the population of 66 1 city in China, it is concluded that there are 23 cities with a continuous decline in urban population during these four years. Under normal circumstances, cities that have lost their permanent population for more than three years can be regarded as shrinking cities.

According to the list of cities divided this time, these cities are basically third, fourth and fifth tier cities. Observing these cities, we find that they have the following characteristics: first, remote cities, such as Tongliao and Guangyuan; Second, resource-based cities, such as Daqing and Hegang; Third, old industrial cities, such as Anshan and Benxi.

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The Matthew effect of the city is increasingly apparent, and the way out for the future property market lies in the new line. For those cities that have sounded the alarm of population, flee as soon as possible.