The ruble exchange rate rebounded to the pre-war level. Why did the ruble rebound?

On the 7th, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar and the euro continued to rise, reaching the level before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to the data of the Moscow Stock Exchange, as of the close of the 7th, the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar rose to 75.75 pairs 1 and against the euro to 8 1.45 pairs1; Looking back over the past month or so, the ruble exchange rate has experienced great fluctuations. When Russia announced the launch of a special military operation on February 24th, the ruble began to show signs of rapid depreciation. On that day, the exchange rate against the US dollar fell below 80: 1, and then it went down all the way. On March 9th, it once fell below 120: 1, a record low. However, instead of sitting still, Russia has taken various measures to deal with sanctions, stabilize the financial market and boost market confidence, and these measures are the reason for the ruble's return again. To sum up, both at home and abroad.

Abroad:

Use your own resources to play a good trade card. On March 3 1 day, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order requiring all "unfriendly countries and regions" to pay Russian natural gas in rubles. The new regulations came into effect on April 1 day. This unfriendly country mainly refers to America's western allies. Russia requires that if they buy natural gas, they must settle it in rubles and must go through a designated central bank. In response to this Russian policy, western countries must exchange dollars or euros for rubles, which can directly push up the ruble exchange rate. The biggest driving force for the recent surge in the ruble is that the European Union began to hoard rubles for the purchase of natural weather and the corresponding financial hot money speculation.

You know, Russia has more than one natural gas license, and it is also a very important oil and food exporter in Europe and even the world. It can be guessed that after Putin's natural gas settlement is effective, it is still possible for his successor to introduce the method of buying grain and oil with rubles, which also captures the "seven inches" of European countries. Watching their own people starve will threaten their dominance, and European leaders will finally have to accept this exchange. The market is expected to be optimistic, which is also the reason for the rise in the exchange rate.

Domestic:

First, strengthen the management of foreign exchange settlement and promote the basic interest rate of the central bank. On February 28th, the Russian central bank announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate to 20%. Its purpose is to protect the deposit interest rate by raising the benchmark interest rate, so as to cope with the risk of domestic currency depreciation and maintain commodity prices and people's savings. Although this may cause inflation in the long run, in the short run, at such a high interest rate, residents have put all their money in the bank, and the currency circulating in the market has decreased, which can also maintain the stability of commodity prices throughout the country.

Second, Russia has also adopted foreign exchange control measures, that is, the compulsory foreign exchange settlement policy. Because of this policy, it is difficult for the Russian people to directly exchange large amounts of foreign exchange. Individuals and enterprises only have rubles, and all foreign exchange operations are carried out by the state as planned, which can control the fluctuation of the foreign exchange market to the greatest extent. The panic of people selling their local currency has just been released, and then the market will be more stable.

Another important reason is that more than a month has passed since the Russian-Ukrainian war, and its form is becoming clearer and clearer. At first, the idea that western countries wanted to turn the Russian economy into a pile of rubble in a short time has been proved to be an idiotic dream. People all over the world are more clearly aware that Russia's national economy is not as fragile as imagined, but also full of resilience. Confidence in Russia's economic recovery is gradually recovering, and expectations are getting better. The ruble, which is also the Russian currency, is also more stable.