A joke about Zelensky.

The missiles that landed in Poland once caused an uproar: Ukraine and Poland accused Russia of deteriorating and escalating the situation, and NATO also held an emergency meeting to prepare countermeasures.

However, a few hours later, the incident was reversed by 180 degrees: preliminary investigations by the United States and NATO showed that the explosion might have been caused by a Ukrainian missile.

After the news was announced, the world seemed to breathe a sigh of relief, and the Polish side changed its mind and said it was an accident. However, the Ukrainian side is still tough-demanding immediate access to the scene, and Kiev is ready to hand over "evidence" that can accuse Russia.

United States: Ukraine did it.

A few hours after the missile exploded, US President Biden, who was still attending the G20 summit, said that it was "too early" to judge whether the missile came from Russia, and "from the ballistic trajectory, it is unlikely to be launched from Russia".

Since then, the Associated Press quoted American officials as saying that preliminary investigations showed that the missiles in Poland were launched by Ukrainian troops in response to Russian missiles attacking Ukraine's power infrastructure.

"Russia Today" quoted live pictures of social media.

Subsequently, an American official basically concluded the incident-the Ukrainian military informed the United States and other Western allies that during the Polish missile explosion, the Ukrainian army tried to intercept a Russian missile near the explosion site.

NATO also believes that the missiles came from Ukraine. Secretary-General Stoltenberg said, "Our preliminary analysis shows that this incident was probably caused by Ukrainian air defense missiles, which were launched to protect Ukrainian territory from Russian cruise missiles."

He said the investigation was "ongoing", but "there is no indication that it was the result of a deliberate attack." NATO has not seen any signs that Russia plans to take offensive military action against NATO allies.

Since the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine in February this year, NATO members are most worried that some members will be affected, forcing this organization to launch "collective defense", thus making the situation more complicated. At present, this result can be described as a sigh of relief for NATO countries such as the United States. After all, no one wants to be dragged directly into the quagmire of the Ukrainian crisis.

Ukraine: Not me.

However, since the missile explosion, Ukraine does not intend to "recognize the account."

Ukrainian President Zelensky said that there is no doubt that the missiles falling into Polish territory do not belong to Ukraine.

Zelensky data map

He said that he has received reports from the Ukrainian Army and Air Force Command and should believe the military's conclusions. Zelensky also believes that Ukraine should be allowed to go to the missile landing site to participate in the investigation.

In fact, as soon as the missile explosion happened, Ukrainian President Zelensky quickly issued a document accusing Russia, claiming that it was an attack on NATO's collective security and a "major escalation" of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.

15 night, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba claimed that any statement that "Ukrainian missiles landed in Poland" was a "conspiracy theory" of Russia.

Russia: America is more professional

After the explosion, the Russian Ministry of Defence firmly denied the accusation and said that the remarks about "Russian missiles attacking Poland" were deliberate provocations, with the aim of escalating the situation.

The Russian Defense Ministry also added that from the photos on the spot, the missiles that landed in Poland seemed to come from Ukraine's S-300 air defense system.

Unexpectedly, this conclusion has been recognized by the United States and its western allies.

Perhaps the American statement also surprised Russia. Russian Presidential Press Secretary peskov even said on 16 that "the restraint and professionalism of the United States and its presidents deserve attention and consideration."

He stressed, "I once again draw attention to the fact that the reaction of the United States is quite restrained, which is in stark contrast to the hysterical reaction of Poland and some countries."

Of course, after "praising" the response of the United States, Russia did not forget to "answer blows with blows". On June 16, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Chargé d 'affaires of Poland in Moscow as a response to the Russian Ambassador summoned by the Polish Foreign Ministry.

Zacharova, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also retorted that the anti-Russian sentiment caused by the missile falling into China was unacceptable, and hoped that Poland would stop all anti-Russian hype related to the incident.

Poland: I was the only one injured in the end.

After the missile incident 180 degree reversal, I am afraid that only Poland has been most affected by the whole incident. After all, it happened in Poland, causing casualties. As the "first line of anti-Russia", Poland wanted to make a big fuss about this matter, but in the end it could only swallow it.

Polish President Duda admitted on 16 that the incident was probably an "accidental tragedy caused by the Ukrainian air force", not a deliberate attack, nor was it initiated by Russia.

"The Ukrainian air defense system fired missiles in all directions, and it is very likely that one of them unfortunately landed on Polish territory. There is no indication that this is a deliberate attack on Poland. " Duda said.

Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki also said that at present, there is no need to start the fourth collective consultation mechanism of NATO.

After the missile explosion reversed, a cartoon circulated on social media. After learning that the casualties were caused by Ukraine, a villain symbolizing "Poland" immediately hugged the thigh of the Ukrainian villain and repeatedly said, "My ally! Don't worry! "

This scene, I am afraid, was unexpected by the Polish government at that time.

Original title: USA: Ukraine did it, Ukraine: Not me, Poland: Only I was injured.

Polish police are investigating on the spot.

According to Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, when the territorial integrity, political independence or security of NATO members are threatened, NATO members will hold urgent consultations at the proposal of any member.

To this end, shortly after the incident, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg announced the convening of an emergency meeting.

However, just before the meeting began, the "reversal" came. The United States and NATO were vague at first, and then released the preliminary investigation results through anonymous officials, saying that the missile "may come from Ukraine"; After the Russian side denied it, it further produced evidence that the missile wreckage was part of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense system missile.

Who launched the missile?

As soon as the missile explosion happened, Polish media and officials said that it might be that "Russian missiles" fell into Poland. Ukrainian President Zelensky also promptly issued a document criticizing Russia.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba further denied that the missile was launched by the Ukrainian air defense system, calling it a "conspiracy theory" promoted by Russia.

The Russian Defense Ministry immediately issued a statement denying that the Russian army did not use deadly weapons to attack the targets in the border areas of Wooper. Some Polish media reports are "deliberately provocative".

In contrast, NATO's foreign posture is uncharacteristically cautious, only expressing "concern" and not speculating on the reasons.

A few hours later, US President Biden, who was attending the G20 summit in Indonesia, "hit" the Ukrainian position, saying that "from the ballistic trajectory, it is unlikely to be launched from Russia".

Since then, anonymous officials in the United States have further released news that the preliminary investigation results show that the missiles in Poland were launched by the Ukrainian army in response to Russian missiles attacking Ukraine's power infrastructure.

Event scene

June 5438+06 NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg delivered a speech after the emergency meeting. He said that the investigation of the missile attack in Poland is "in progress", but "there is no indication that this is the result of a deliberate attack"; NATO has not seen any signs that Russia plans to take offensive military action against NATO allies.

He also said, "Our preliminary analysis shows that this incident was probably caused by Ukrainian air defense missiles, which were launched to protect Ukrainian territory from Russian cruise missiles."

The Russian Ministry of Defence quoted the picture of "Ukrainian missile wreckage" published by Polish media as saying that expert analysis pointed out that the wreckage was part of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense system missile.

Up to now, the Ukrainian side has neither admitted nor denied this.

Who is embarrassed?

After the incident, the Polish Foreign Ministry immediately summoned the Russian ambassador to Poland and demanded "an immediate and detailed explanation". This first reaction naturally made Russia unhappy. The meeting between Polish Foreign Minister Raoul and Russian Ambassador to Poland andreyev lasted only four minutes. There is no communication between them, or even a handshake. Andreyev left after hearing the Polish note.

For the United States and NATO, the explosion is only after "attention" and "investigation". Earlier, US President Biden and other NATO officials repeatedly vowed to defend every inch of the territory of NATO member States. However, since the source of the missile was determined to be from Ukraine, the United States and NATO successively fell silent, saying nothing but expressing their condolences to Poland, and even the preliminary investigation results were announced by anonymous officials.

At the press conference, Stoltenberg "respected" his allies by saying that "this is not Ukraine's fault, and Russia bears the ultimate responsibility for continuing to wage an illegal war against Ukraine".

At this point, Ukraine, which is experiencing the pain of war and seeking more international support, is undoubtedly embarrassed.

All along, NATO has been trying to provide assistance to Ukraine without being directly involved in the conflict, and Ukraine has been asking the West for more assistance on many public occasions. Especially this winter, many power supply facilities in Ukraine have been hit. Although Russian troops withdrew from Hellson, the follow-up action of Ukraine was not smooth sailing, but difficult.

This time, Poland, which has always claimed to be an "anti-Russian depth bomb", also suffered a dumb loss. Since the Ukrainian crisis, Poland has almost become the "base camp" and "transit station" for NATO to aid Ukraine, and it is also the most radical in sanctions against Russia. A series of actions made Russia very angry. As early as April this year, Russia took the lead in "destroying" Poland.

Finally, NATO itself has some dilemmas. The Ukrainian crisis has lasted for nearly nine months. If NATO members are really affected, it may lead to further escalation of the situation. This is the last thing NATO wants to see. British media analysis pointed out that detonating a full-scale war with Moscow is the last thing NATO wants to see. Although NATO allies may seek to deal with this incident in some way, what kind of message do they want to send to Putin, because they find that this is just an "own goal" and need to be carefully considered.

The United States has hung itself high. A member of the Armed Services Committee of the US House of Representatives said that although "there is no doubt that the United States will protect NATO members in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO Charter", if this incident happens by accident, it is necessary to ensure that "every effort is made to ease the situation".

How should the incident end?

The publication of the preliminary findings temporarily eased the tense international community.

French President Macron, who was still at the G20 summit, hastened to "put out the fire", saying that he had the responsibility to issue a very clear message about the Polish missile incident in order to avoid escalating the situation.

Although the Ukrainian government has not expressed its position, there are still Ukrainian parliamentarians who are "stubborn" on social platforms-"Even if this is a Ukrainian missile, it is the result of our efforts to protect our lives."

For Poland, this incident had to be called "the dumb eats the coptis root"-after the preliminary investigation results came out, Polish President Duda changed his tune and called it an "unfortunate accident", and there was no reason to believe that it was an "attack".

If it is finally determined that Ukraine "bumped into" Poland, then the question comes. Will NATO be a peacemaker? Will Poland swallow the bitter fruit of accidental injury? How does this matter affect the situation in Russia and Ukraine?

How should the oolong incident end? This time, I am afraid that only Poland will be injured.