Disadvantages of urbanization

Recently, there are reports about the rapid development of urbanization in China. It is said that the urbanization level of China has reached 40.5% in 2003, exceeding the original target. Some people say that China's cities have entered an "accelerated development period", and there are even reports that there has been a "Great Leap Forward" in urbanization. Is it a good thing to create momentum and promote urbanization? Will it bring any negative effects?

According to the original plan, the urbanization level of China will reach about 35% in 2005 and 40-42% in 20 10. In other words, China achieved its original urbanization goal six to seven years ahead of schedule. According to the forecast of authoritative departments, the urbanization level of China will reach 65% in the middle of this century, and then 75%.

One of the author's questions is whether our urbanization is too fast or too urgent. It took 90 years to improve the urbanization level from 26% to 70% in Britain, 25.5% to 7 1.7% in France and 25.7% to 75.2% in the United States, all of which took 1.20 years. We increased from 28% in 1993 to 40.5% in 2003. It only takes 10 years, not to mention the acceleration. At this speed, it will reach 60% around 2020 and 75% before 2035. In other words, we have gone through the same urbanization process in half the time of Britain and almost one third of the time of France and the United States.

The second question is whether it is necessary for China to set the level of urbanization as high as that of developed countries, reaching more than 75%. It is a simple truth that realizing industrialization and modernization, narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and promoting social and economic development cannot be separated from a certain level of urbanization. Undoubtedly, before 1980s, the level of urbanization in China was low, but it was still not high enough and needed to be improved. But should all countries have the same level of urbanization? China's national conditions are quite different from those of all developed countries that have achieved modernization so far. Must China's urbanization standards be in line with them? Should the urbanization standard of 2 1 century be different from that of19th century and 20th century?

The particularity of China is obvious. First, the population is too large. 65.438+03 billion population, more than the combined population of North America, Europe and Japan; Second, the available land resources are relatively poor. Although China's land area is 9.6 million square kilometers, plateau, mountain, desert, Gobi and arid areas, which are unusable and unfit for human habitation under scientific conditions, account for more than two thirds, and the available land is overburdened according to the current population, which is worse than any developed country. Third, there is a serious shortage of basic resources, with per capita fresh water less than a quarter of the world's and per capita cultivated land less than a third. Compared with developed countries, this aspect is even worse. In view of the fact that the consumption of resources by urban population is much greater than that by rural population of the same number, whether it is necessary to fully consider the adaptation of China's basic resources to the reasonable distribution ratio of urban and rural population when implementing urbanization. Since China's basic resources are far behind developed countries, why should our urbanization level be as high as theirs? If our population in 2020 is 65.438+0.5 billion, then 60% of the urban population is 900 million; The population of this century is 654.38+0.7 billion, so 75% of the urban population is 654.38+0.275 billion. How much fresh water, land, energy, food, housing and transportation facilities does such a huge urban population need to support?

Urbanization means more centralized production and consumption, larger scale, socialization and higher production efficiency, which means modernization. The higher the urbanization level, the higher the modernization level. This is the understanding of the significance of urbanization so far. But in recent twenty or thirty years, with the progress of science and technology, especially the development and popularization of computer and network technology, people's understanding of urbanization standards is undergoing some new changes. Now, more and more people can work far away from the central city or even at home, and they can also get information, hold meetings and transactions, and accomplish many things, which greatly saves time and reduces the consumption of logistics. In addition, people's requirements for environmental quality are getting higher and higher, and they don't want to squeeze into big cities with serious pollution. Therefore, the population of some developed countries began to disperse from big cities to small cities, and from urban areas to suburbs. Moreover, this trend will not reduce the degree of modernization at all. When we promote urbanization in the 2 1 century, should we consider these new factors to avoid excessive concentration of population in central cities and less detours?

The third question is whether the rapid and excessive urbanization will cause some irreversible and irreversible consequences. Now there is a feeling that the urbanization of China is still driven by a strong planned economy model and strong administrative means, rather than a natural development that meets the market demand. For example, urbanization at an average rate of several blocks per year, to what extent in which era, and to speed up the pace of urbanization recently, are typical planned economy practices. Urbanization is a hundred times more complicated than any single product or single economic index, involving population distribution, resource allocation, environment and society. The role of administration and planning is necessary for urbanization, but it should mainly be reflected in concentrating outstanding talents in all aspects, making scientific urban planning according to history, present situation and future, doing a good job in comprehensive balance, accurately positioning urban functions and ensuring urban characteristics, rather than emphasizing indicators and progress.

Too fast and excessive urbanization may cause at least four consequences that are difficult to reverse and correct:

First, a large number of cultivated land is abnormally reduced. Cities are generally built in plain areas with good natural conditions and are also the best agricultural areas. According to the plan, the urbanization of China needs to occupy 3%-6% of the country's land. The proportion seems small, but the area is not small, about 300,000 to 600,000 square kilometers, which is equivalent to one-third to one-half of the total area of China Plain. To occupy so much good land, how to realize the original intention of letting the population staying in the countryside get more cultivated land through urbanization? In fact, due to the rapid development of urbanization, the wind of enclosure is still prevalent. With the rise of a large number of luxury factories, buildings and various "image projects", large tracts of fertile land in the past have disappeared, making the contradiction between the original population and cultivated land in China more prominent. In recent years alone, the net loss of cultivated land has reached 38 million mu, which has caused a large number of farmers to be landless, unemployed and insecure, which is also an important reason for the continuous decline of grain output.

The second is to produce serious "urban diseases." Urbanization is too fast, cities are too big, and too many people are concentrated in cities in a short period of time, which will inevitably lead to a large number of unemployment, tight supply of fresh water and energy, traffic congestion, increased crime, environmental deterioration and increased risks of various crises. Some experts say that urbanization does not necessarily produce "urban diseases", but the root of "urban diseases" lies in the one-sidedness of guiding ideology, the unreasonable industrial structure and layout, and the development mode of "low-density expansion". It is not unreasonable to put forward the opinions of "development to overcome urban diseases", "planning to reduce urban diseases" and "management to cure urban diseases", but the question is whether the guiding ideology can be one-sidedness and planning scientifically in practice. This summer, a rainstorm in Beijing caused traffic paralysis in almost the whole city, and a storm in Shanghai caused serious traffic jams and large-scale power outages, exposing serious problems in our urban construction and management.

The third is the "bubble" of real estate. Nowadays, many cities are building houses too fast, which takes up a lot of bank funds. If the supply exceeds demand seriously, or the price exceeds the affordability of citizens, a large number of houses will be vacant, which will lead to economic crisis. Experience has proved that the economic crisis caused by the real estate bubble will take many years to recover.

The fourth is the "ruins" of the city. There may be two reasons for this: first, the above-mentioned real estate is seriously in oversupply, resulting in a large number of vacant buildings; The second is the downward trend of China's population in this century. According to the idea of China's population policy, the total population will gradually decrease after reaching the peak of1700 million, and finally reach the ideal scale of about 700 million. Then, will there be a day when there are not so many people living in such a large-scale city today?

China's urbanization, in terms of its scale, is unprecedented in human history, and may be unparalleled. Its arduousness and complexity are unmatched by any developed country. It concerns not only today, but also tomorrow and future generations. Once the city is built, it cannot be easily demolished; What is lost in the process of urbanization is also difficult to recover. We should make steady progress, give full play to the advantages of urbanization, and try our best to avoid or reduce the possible adverse effects of carelessness and blindness.

Benefits:

Let's start with income. The income of big urbanized areas is definitely higher than that of small urbanized areas. Intuitively speaking, the income of cities is higher than that of rural areas. For example, Shanghai residents, many residents also live in small, crowded and dilapidated tile houses in the village, and there are not a few unemployed people at home. However, due to the advancement of urbanization, real estate developers have begun to spread to residential houses. It is essential to remove small houses and arrange decent houses, so such residents began to live. "

On the other hand, in ordinary residential areas and messy residential areas, the owners of low-rent housing (left by ancestors) are not worried about income at all. A small tile house of 5 or 6 square meters in Shanghai, with a monthly rent of 350-500. You know, such a house doesn't even have room for a table except a bed. But ordinary people can't live in such a house, and I, a big bed, which part is my wife, daughter or son, live together. It's really a surprise. Calculate the owner's income. As long as there are five or six such small houses, the income will reach 2000-3000 yuan. Plus, with a fixed place, you can play mahjong every day without working at all. You even feel entitled to boss around in front of people from other places.

The housing price in Shanghai is a little high, and the above phenomenon has spread to the rural areas of Shanghai, creating a short-term advantage for the urban population, but if we think deeply, this advantage is of far-reaching significance.

On the other hand, take the rural area of Pizhou where I was born and raised, especially 10 years ago. Urbanization does not involve rural areas at all, and the source of income depends on aquaculture and planting, and the degree of industrialization is very low. Frankly speaking, many old people and vulnerable groups have zero income. Even if there are wealthy businessmen among them, average index has been erased by these people, and the economic indicators have suffered great losses, although it has not yet reached the point of starvation.

Even now, this situation still exists. Although it has improved, the basic contradiction has not been solved. There are more businessmen and entrepreneurs, and there are more rich people than before, but the income of the elderly and children with disabilities is still zero. The average income lags far behind. The reason is that they have not enjoyed the benefits of urbanization.

Let's look at attracting foreign investment. Foreign investment in big cities is obviously much stronger than that in small cities or rural areas. Take Shanghai as an example. Urban population can benefit from real estate and rent, and the population in the central city is poor in this respect, but this is not important. You can work in a foreign company, and you can often see old ladies aged 50-70 on the production line. The old man is checking the circuit board with a magnifying glass, and sometimes his eyes will be red and swollen. Life is hard enough. I work overtime at night until 1 1. If it were my parents, it would definitely not be allowed. However, for high consumption income, how do they survive?

Look at the old lady and grandfather in our hometown. Let's fly kites when we are old. Let's visit relatives and relax at home. Most of them are supported by children. There is no doubt that their income is empty, especially for the rural elderly who have no pension, because they can't enjoy the benefits brought by the above urbanization. To sum up, the income index is not high, but it does not need the sympathy of big cities. We still have meat to eat and wine to drink. After all, ordinary people don't think so much.

On the other hand, is it a good thing to blindly enjoy urbanization? I don't think so. Let's take Shanghai as an example. The private economy here looks poor compared with foreign capital. Many streets look depressed, which is inconsistent with Shanghai's position in people's minds. People are generally competitive and are not called "smart Shanghainese" as advertised. At least I think they made mistakes in many things, not coarse, but fine. ......

I remember renting houses in several places because of my work, but I gave up the idea because there was no network cable. However, Shanghainese all over the world have no idea what I want. Finally, I heard that a child nearby had a computer, so I advised him to pay a few hundred yuan a month, but his whole family objected, saying that there was a virus, and only one computer joke could be brought with a network cable.

Before I came to Shanghai, I always thought that the business atmosphere in Shanghai was excellent, and the streets should be crowded, but I found it wrong after I arrived. The business atmosphere here is really ordinary. For example, Guiping Road near Xujiahui can't even open a shop. The reason is that Shanghai likes working and hates business. It is not true that Shanghainese go out at midnight.

In short, no matter where people are, as long as efforts always pay off, cities are people's cities and rural areas are people's countries. Give full play to people's initiative and enjoy a better life!