Niudao said: How do we live a good life?

In your new book "The Big Deal: How We Live a Good Life," you repeatedly talk about "returning to common sense." So, in your opinion, what "common sense" should ordinary people know the most?

Niudao: Economics is a behavioral science that studies people’s economic lives. Macroeconomics covers a wide range of topics. It is obviously unrealistic to require everyone to study economics. However, there are so many economics books on the market that it is very difficult to find an easy-to-read book, which makes it inconvenient to promote the basic common sense of economics.

In the real society, people do not manage their finances, inflation is there, currency depreciates sharply, and hard-earned money is lost in vain. Since the capital market is complex and ever-changing, how do we analyze the trend of the capital market? What economic phenomena deserve attention? How do private individuals and families allocate scarce resources across time? What are the resources that can be used for reference? It's all a problem. Therefore, in the vast economic theory system, the basic common sense across all major economic theory categories is concentrated on the data analysis of macroeconomics. If you understand these data and learn to analyze them, there will be no problems in the market. Big directional error.

The six major data I chose are both global and Chinese. These data are published regularly by specialized government agencies, United Nations agencies and private organizations in various countries. They contain huge business opportunities and are also the focus of the macroeconomics. A thorough understanding of the data will enable many people to see the essence through market phenomena and clarify their own investment ideas. .

The reason why I want everyone to return to common sense is because the market rises and falls, and there is no behavior of any asset rising in price all the time. Assets that skyrocket often end up plummeting.

Reporter: Money is worthless, what should we do? If investing, what suggestions do you have?

Niudao: Regarding currency, there is no central bank like China in the world that can issue currency at will. How it will end now is unclear. It looks like it is tightening money, but in fact it has opened the floodgates. In this way, China will have a very strange economic phenomenon in the future. Inflation will still be serious, the currency will still depreciate, and the momentum for economic growth has disappeared. This phenomenon, which is neither inflation nor deflation, is called stagflation in economics. This is a terrible thing and will bring about many social problems.

At present, it is almost impossible to preserve the value of private wealth in China, as all asset prices are at high levels. This shows that there is a powerful force monopolizing the market, driving up prices, and plundering people's wealth. The eternal law of the capital market is the 28/20 rule. Only a few people really make money.

The cost of starting an industry is very high, and the probability of bankruptcy is high; the environment for starting a business is getting worse year by year, and the cost is getting higher year by year. All these indicate that China's economy is going to have big problems. The risks of investing in RMB assets now outweigh the returns. Therefore, I propose that in 2013, we will build a global position and let everyone pay attention to the global capital market. Opportunities in the United States and Europe are coming.

If China’s economy does not undergo a major transformation, a major depression will soon occur. High housing prices and high inflation are the natural enemies of economic growth. If they are not controlled, the Chinese economy will collapse. Capital markets are dangerous.

The theory that "house prices will rise forever" is very popular. What do you think of this argument?

Knife: How is it possible? No asset can rise for thousands of years. The faster it rises, the harder it falls. This is an iron law of the capital market. Forget about real estate, what about gold, crude oil, and all precious metals? As long as the Chinese yuan buys a lot of goods, one day it will plummet.

If the RMB is printed indiscriminately like this, its actual value in the world will be equivalent to that of waste paper. There is no currency in the world that depreciates so fast, and not many people are optimistic about it. RMB internationalization is just a joke. China’s housing price bubble is the world’s biggest joke, funnier than the internationalization of the RMB. What else is more laughable than this? These officials and developers have joined forces with the media to speculate on housing prices. The entire property market is full of monopoly, fraud, plunder, violence and huge profits. They will not stop until they suck up all the hard-earned money of the people.

Do you think it can continue?

Reporter: Will the real estate bubble burst this year? If it collapses, how can we return to a normal real estate market and achieve a "reasonable return to housing prices"?

Knife: China’s housing price bubble will burst as soon as it is hit, and paper wealth will be wiped out. How much is reinforced concrete worth? What is the function of a house? Apart from Hong Kong, which other country or region in the world engages in real estate speculation on such a large scale? The most ridiculous things happen in China. The economy in many places is in shambles. How do they explain it?

Reporter: Some people say that this year is "a bad year for the Chinese stock market." How do you interpret the direction of the Chinese stock market this year?

Cut: China’s high housing prices have sucked up the hard work of ordinary urban and rural residents for three generations. What promotes China’s economic transformation, stimulates domestic demand, and protects people’s livelihood has become the biggest lie in the global economy. Housing prices have not plummeted, so what do ordinary people get? Expand domestic demand. Without domestic demand, there will be no consumption. How can we develop production without consumption? How could the stock market improve? Only when house prices fall to the bottom will the stock market turn bullish.

How can such a big bubble burst so much fun?

Reporter: You once said that this era in China "is an era of talking about the prosperity of the people", but it seems that there is no social basis for talking about "the prosperity of the people"?

Excellent: First of all, the entire system construction is far behind economic growth. Things that should be done are not done, and things that should not be done are done in advance. The mentality of making a handful of money and leaving is very serious. What has caused They are all short-term actions. Such government actions have caused deep fear and uneasiness among urban and rural residents, and made people unpredictable. Nowadays, the pressure to maintain stability is getting bigger and bigger. When one day it becomes unbearable, it will be out of control.

The currency value is unstable, people’s hearts are unstable, and the world is in chaos. The social foundation of people's prosperity is based on a good social system. If there is a problem with the system, economic problems will be difficult to deal with. However, in times of difficulty, our comrades must be able to see light and hope, and have the courage and confidence to overcome problems. We must put the issue of people's prosperity on the agenda and do the work we should do.

Reporter: What impact will the euro crisis have on emerging economies such as China?

Niudao: It has a certain impact on China’s import and export trade, but has little impact on the RMB exchange rate. In the capital market, the phenomenon of euros returning to the local market is very serious. In June this year, European and American currencies were having a tough battle, and the outcome was already clear. As for China, don't rush to intervene in European affairs, just let the brothers settle their accounts before talking.

Reporter: The post-80s generation is the "year of establishment", but when it is not established, as you said, "the post-80s generation fell collectively." How can they live a "good life"?

Niudao: Living in a country with high inflation, no one will feel happy. Not only those born in the 1980s, but also those born in the 1990s have no hope. If housing prices do not fall, the bubble will not burst and inflation will not be contained. If nothing unexpected happens, that is, if the central bank stops printing money like crazy, housing prices will fall back on their own, inflation will be under control, and many asset prices will also fall.

Excellent: 2012

The year 2012 is a legendary year of doomsday, and it is also a year of prophecy. If you were to predict, what things would happen and affect people's lives?

Knife: three black swans in the global capital market in 2012.

The first one is that the US dollar index will rise to 85 points. To sum up, the effect of the Fed's policy of maintaining low interest rates is very limited. It is just a short-term speculation in the capital market and cannot stop the rapid rise of the US dollar index. At present, the US dollar will return to above 80 points in a few trading days, and may rise to 85 points in the next six months or so.

The second branch is progress in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the second black swan in the capital market that we must pay special attention to this year. At present, the progress of the incident is not clear yet, but we hope it will develop in a positive direction. The Iranian people are very friendly to Chinese tourists and businessmen. PetroChina also has a large investment in Iran, which affects China's crude oil supply. At the same time, it will also affect the trend of China's A-share energy and coal sectors.

The third branch is the European debt problem. Because the final solution has not yet been decided, the market is currently paying close attention.

Regarding the European debt issue, I will discuss it specifically.

As far as the Chinese economy itself is concerned, we must pay close attention to the trend of the RMB. If the RMB is free to float in the market, then the foreign exchange market will bring investment opportunities, and China's B-shares will have a market trend.

Reporter: Is there a middle class in China? What "conditions" qualify as middle class?

Excellent: The middle class has always been a dream in China. The middle class must not only have a certain amount of wealth, but more importantly, have good qualities, forward thinking, wise ideas, and rich knowledge. They must always lead the trend of life and be at the forefront of fashion. It is impossible to exist in China. The rich people in China are basically nouveau riche, or the second generation of officials and the second generation of rich people. These people are all a bunch of pigs, or parasites. Really educated and wealthy people have immigrated long ago. Who wants to stay in China? Ridiculous thing. How is it possible to create a middle class?

Reporter: Shi Hanbing said in the preface of his new book that your "Three Musketeers" appeal for housing and people's livelihood has attracted the attention of the Chinese people, "but few people know the bitterness and hardship behind it." Tell us about your "bitterness and hardship"? What results have been finally achieved through hard work?

Excellent: Do what you can, and endure hardships without giving up. As for the effect, it remains to be judged by society.