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Why is the invincible BBA planted in the new energy market?

It is estimated that BBA itself did not expect to stumble in the new energy vehicle market when it was in the luxury car market. It can almost be described as a rout: Mercedes-Benz EQC? 1-September sales? 209 1 car, Audi e-tron has not directly announced the sales volume, and the prospect of BMW iX3 endorsed by Yiyang Millennium is not optimistic.

In fact, BBA is not an afterthought in the new energy vehicle market: in 2007, in the third year of Tesla's establishment, BMW launched "Project? I "project, began to build mass-produced new energy vehicles; 20 10, ambitious Mercedes-Benz and BYD set up pure electric vehicles to challenge Tesla in China, the world's largest new energy market; Then Audi, unwilling to be lonely, released e-tron. In the face of unprecedented pressure from Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi, once life and death rivals, joined forces to encircle Tesla. But all three giants lost in the end.

Then, why did BBA, which has a history of 100 years and has been invincible in the luxury car market, lose to Tesla, which was established less than 20 years ago, and stumble in the new energy market?

Jorma-Jaakko-Ollila, the former CEO who created the myth of Nokia, once recalled the scene when the iPhone came out in his autobiography: he called 12 executives to talk, among whom 10 felt that the iPhone should not be underestimated, but Nokia's performance-centered management system limited the turn of this big ship. Ollila reflected: We all know the problem, but deep down we can't change the reality. Bottom line: it's too difficult for an elephant to turn around, and so is BBA.

The first is the complex interest dispute behind BBA.

Internally, both Kang Song Lin of Mercedes-Benz and Zipser of BMW are professional managers, who are responsible for the interests of shareholders and need good-looking financial statements every year. Like new energy, especially pure electricity technology, it needs a lot of capital investment in the early stage, and it can't be rewarded in the short term. For example, Tesla once burned tens of billions of dollars in ten years because of the bankruptcy of R&D, and then began to make profits slowly.

Compared with the long-term strategic vision, BBA executives are more worried about whether they can achieve quarterly goals, and this mentality is transmitted to the middle level. Bonuses are all linked to sales data, which further hinders traditional car companies from putting all their eggs in one basket in the new energy market.

Externally, it is the limitation of the whole German traditional automobile industry system. The core "three electricity" technology of electric vehicles is not in the German and European markets. This time, the batteries of China, Japan and South Korea, and the electric drive and automatic driving technology of the United States are in the forefront. As the three traditional automobile parts, Bosch, China and ZF are collectively backward, which has dragged down the overall progress of BBA in the field of new energy. On the other hand, the government should also consider the transition to new energy, which will bring employment and economic impact to the entire German automobile industry, which will directly lead to BMW developing new energy not much later than Tesla, but far behind the latter.

Secondly, the swing of new energy strategy.

The rapid rise of Tesla is inseparable from the dictatorship of the "tyrant" Musk. His requirements for technology landing time and R&D efficiency are almost harsh, and his unswerving implementation of pure circuit lines and autonomous driving has made Tesla today. BBA is different. First, the CEO is controlled by the company's board of directors and board of supervisors, and it is difficult to let things go. Secondly, almost every CEO is the result of interest group game, and it is difficult to continue a certain established strategy.

Like BMW. In 20 15, the young Kruger unexpectedly defeated Diss to become CEO of BMW. As soon as he took office, this "conservative but error-prone choice" tried to get rid of the radical line of former CEO Nobert Reithofer. During his tenure, Resef took a series of bold new energy measures, such as launching "projects" before Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Volkswagen. A "new energy project; Take the lead in launching the first mass-produced electric vehicle i3 and super-running electric vehicle i8 of luxury brands, and promote the large-scale application of lightweight carbon fiber in automobile production.

However, shortly after Kruger took over, the sales volume of i3 hit a bottleneck and the cost remained high. Subsequently, BMW suspended the research and development of electric vehicles and did not launch electric vehicles again, wasting BMW's leading position in the field of electric vehicles in the past decade. It was not until 20 17 that BMW started the "project"? I "In the second stage, new autonomous driving and car networking technology projects were added. Dialectically, at a certain historical moment, autocracy is more likely to produce miracles than democracy.

Furthermore, the constraints of the nature of car companies.

BBA is a traditional automobile company dominated by typical engineer culture. In the era of fuel vehicles, this rigorous and serious engineer concept is naturally invincible, but the era of electric vehicles is different. Pure electric vehicles are also regarded as "smart phones on wheels", which require higher software and faster technology iteration. In many cases, you are not allowed to build a 100% perfect product.

For example, under the premise of ensuring safety, Tesla and Weilai first introduced a product with eight mature technologies to the market, and continuously upgraded and optimized their technologies through market feedback. This situation is absolutely not allowed in traditional car companies, which is also the key to why Volkswagen ID.3 cannot be listed overseas.

The rise of every emerging industry is accompanied by the birth of an industry unicorn. For BBA, besides its own slow change, another reason is that Tesla is too powerful.

This powerful and intuitive feedback will be transmitted to the product level. Let's compare the best-selling products of four car companies: Tesla Model? 3. Mercedes-Benz EQC, BMW i3 and Audi e-tron.

Let's talk about design first. Tesla is undoubtedly the originator of all new energy brands. The closed air intake grille and the hidden door handle are the first applications of Tesla, and Model? Science fiction, style and fashion are the benchmarks that every electric car should follow. The styling of Mercedes-Benz EQC and Audi e-tron, the fuel vehicle attribute is too heavy, and there is no sense of the future that electric vehicles should have; As for the BMW i3, the sense of science and technology is good, but the appearance is weird, which is difficult for many consumers to accept. Even the latest iX released by BMW has retained too many family attributes in the past and not much innovation.

Then there is the battery life of the electric car, model? 3 directly upgraded to a maximum of 668 kilometers, while BBA's three products are all around 300-500 kilometers, and the endurance anxiety is difficult to alleviate.

The most important thing is experience. Tesla's unique credit card entry and start-up, the leap of autonomous driving technology brought by self-developed driving chips, and the convenience created by the gradual popularization of super charging stations are beyond BBA's reach at this stage.

These three points alone are enough reasons for consumers to choose Tesla instead of BBA.

In addition, it was Tesla who innovated the supply chain management system, which brought down the cost. At present, BBA's new energy products still rely on the closed supply chain management with high division of labor in the past, which brings great challenges to inventory and logistics on the one hand; On the one hand, it is highly monopolized, the price is stable and it is difficult for newcomers to enter. Without competition, it is naturally difficult to innovate, thus reducing costs.

Tesla is a lot like Apple. Realize the "open source" supply chain management similar to software systems, gather global resources, and create a vertical procurement model. With Mercedes EQC and Tesla models? For example, the number of suppliers of the latter is nearly one-third less than that of the former, and most areas of EQC are still suppliers of fuel vehicles in the past, except for batteries supplied by LG Chemical. At the same time, Tesla also abandoned the past 4S store sales model and adopted direct sales, which can further benefit consumers.

Feedback to the product price, EQC 500,000, the same as its model? Y currently has a pre-sale of 488,000. According to the past price trend of Model3, Model? It is not impossible for y to drop to 400 thousand.

One more thing, Tesla is super capable of playing, and Musk's personal charm is indispensable.

When BBA still relies on the traditional marketing model in the past to promote new products, Musk, a superstar who has built four unicorns, became the spokesperson of Tesla. He is inseparable from Tesla personally, and his words and deeds will bring a huge explosion, which will further create momentum for Tesla products, make its brand power rise rapidly, and make up for the gap with BBA.

Without knowing it, Tesla has imperceptibly established a series of core competitiveness that BBA does not have, such as high cost performance, high-end technical experience, relatively mature three-electricity system and OTA upgrade in various fields. These are exactly what consumers like to see and hear in the new era, so it is not surprising that BBA stumbles in the new energy market.

However, it is too early to conclude that BBA will be completely defeated by the new forces headed by Tesla.

On the one hand, it is market acceptance.

New energy vehicles are different from smart phones. As a mass consumer, one is expensive, and it is difficult for users to find everything new in a year or two. In addition to performance and design, both cars pay more attention to safety. At present, new forces, including Tesla, have failed to directly break the core barriers of Sanpower technology. Safety and battery life are still the core concerns of consumers for electric vehicles.

This gives traditional forces such as BBA a chance to breathe. They still have the opportunity and time to reverse, to reverse the past patterns and concepts, and to upgrade their own technology, as can be seen from the large-scale launch of new energy technologies by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi in recent years. Once it is completely reversed, the advantages of BBA, capital and talents in the past 100 are by no means comparable to Tesla.

On the one hand, it is the ability to manufacture.

The super factory that Musk and Li Bin have been worried about is nothing to BBA located all over the world. A few days ago, BMW also announced that it would upgrade all its German factories to produce pure electric vehicles by 2022 to cope with the rising production capacity, which Tesla can only sigh.

In addition, although the number of parts of electric vehicles is much less than that of fuel vehicles, it can rely on tens of thousands of old, complex and precise assemblies and still needs professional management experience and technology. The management and reform of industrial chain will never happen overnight.

20 18 musk, who advocated the mechanized revolution, once joked that Toyota's lean production management was slower than that of "grandma with walker" and tried to achieve 100% machine production on the production line. As a result, after some tossing, productivity not only did not improve, but decreased. Frequent mistakes made Musk apologize publicly.

Therefore, although the confrontation between old and new forces has been fully opened in the new energy market, BBA has also lost the opportunity, but with these two moats, BBA will never collapse like Nokia, and there is still a chance to turn the tide.

Dr. Daniel Kirchert once said: "No matter Volkswagen, BMW or Mercedes-Benz, their mechanical engineering culture is too heavy. Some new things, including digitalization and software development, are also difficult to change this gene. If the big ship wants to turn, the speed will be slower. "

As far as BBA is concerned, they do have the advantages of capital and talents. However, in the face of innovation, new technologies and new markets will form internal conflicts with the original inherent organizational structure, management model and interest groups, leaving a very limited time window for new technologies and new markets. Under the internal and external attack, traditional car companies can easily fall into the dilemma of being unable to change their lives.

Next, can BBA seize the window of the transition from the fuel era to new energy sources and use traditional advantages to turn defeat into victory? Whether Tesla can make use of its early advantages and the attributes of its own technology company to further widen the gap with BBA is still a suspense, but what is certain is that time left for BBA is running out.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.