Will house prices fall or rise in 2009?

The country has liberalized the settlement policy except for municipalities directly under the central government, so the houses in Tianjin will drop, but less than those in other cities. As for other cities, read this article:

It is the real estate agent who keeps the house. They first covered most of the second-hand houses and quasi-new houses in Beijing with bank funds. Why do they have a suite? Pay someone to move the house. The so-called back house is to find some people who can borrow money from the bank to buy a house. As long as the person carrying the house provides the identity card and the income certificate issued by the unit. People who carry houses can get a commission of 20 thousand to 50 thousand yuan. Leave the rest to the real estate agent. The intermediary sets the house and sells it after reaching their expected value. Now you want to ask? If the house doesn't reach their expected value. What will they do? They will wait. Because in their own writing, the house will only appreciate. 1 Two years later, they transferred the property registered by Mortgagor A to the registration of Mortgagor B. That is, two years ago, I used a loan of 400,000 yuan to let Mortgagor A carry a suite. Today, two years later, I borrowed 700,000 yuan from mortgagor B to pay back A's suite, and got rid of the mortgagor's commission. And the housing price difference paid to the state. The net income they cheated directly from the bank will not be lower than 654.38+0.6 million per house. Of course, the person who carries the house can also carry it and get a commission after transferring the house. B- back A, C- back B and C- back N in turn. The intermediary pays people to buy a house with a loan from the bank, and then sells it at a high price. If you don't buy it, the agent will hire someone to buy the previous suite at a high price with a bank loan. It's a bank loan anyway. Every time you buy or sell, you can cheat the bank of money once. When you meet a real buyer, the intermediary sells it at a high price. So repeatedly. ) in the so-called housing value is measured by the relationship between supply and demand. It's a manipulated value. Now the price-limited housing introduced by the Beijing government is just wishful thinking to support housing prices. Because the cost of the blank house itself is only about 1000 yuan. Now, the more the government regulates the growth rate of total real estate development, more and more bank funds enter the real estate market, and the growth rate of house prices is also faster and faster. These are all the results of human manipulation. Now more developers directly turn developed commercial houses into second-hand houses. Come to the bank to get a loan with the real estate agent. Promote the prosperity of the current so-called property market by means of housing for the elderly. Finally, put all the risks on the bank. Now the government wants a soft landing for real estate. Only on the basis of finally supporting the existing housing prices, for people who buy houses with bank loans. It is stipulated that the repayment time of the lender is 20 or 30 years, and it is not allowed to repay the loan in advance. Bank interest should be fixed, and the loan house cannot be bought or sold within the repayment time. In this way, it can be reflected that the loan to buy a house is for self-occupation. On the contrary, the black hole of that mortgage will get bigger and bigger. If the house collapses for a long time. People who really buy a house will pay 20% down with bank loans. Buyers who have repaid loans for less than 7 years will not repay loans to banks. What will happen to the national finance? The government can imagine. Secondly, there are intermediary fees charged by the intermediary according to the proportion of the total value of the house. Then these house appraisers who serve the intermediary will only overestimate the house. These intermediaries cheat ethics and the rising ethics of developers and the powerful ethics of the government. It also made today's deformed real estate. Finally, I hope that some netizens will widely spread my post. Hope to follow up the delivery. Let's expose those robberies together!

Speculators bought a 100 square meter commercial house last year, with an opening price of 5,000 yuan/square meter and a total price of 500,000 yuan. The loan is 80%, and the down payment is 6,543,800 yuan. A few months later, they fired the house price to 8000 yuan/square meter. Worried that no one will buy it? They're not going to sell at all! -They sold the house to themselves! (in the name of another person, of course). At this time, the total house price is 800,000 yuan, the loan is 80% (640,000 yuan), and the down payment is 1.6 million yuan. He sold the house to himself by refinancing (or repaying the loan in advance) and paid income tax on the difference.

At this time, let's see what the result is: this person earned a house price difference of 300,000 yuan (because he paid back the bank's money with the bank's money), minus the second down payment 1.6 million yuan and a little income tax, he has earned 1.4 million yuan. And the house is still in its name at this time! Its only burden now is to repay the loan of 640 thousand, plus interest, which is not a small sum. But what does it matter? If the loan is not paid, the bank will take back the house. ! Still earn 1.4 million. If it can still find a buyer, even at the second transaction price (usually higher, you will see the purchase price in the purchase contract), then it can at least get back the second down payment of 6.5438+0.6 million. Then this round will make a net profit of more than 300 thousand. Of course, there will be some transaction costs, but it is insignificant compared with the house price.

Here comes the question:

First, can they speculate on housing prices so high?

Answer: Yes. The fundamental reason is that the developers themselves are mainly involved in this activity. Generally speaking, developers will have an internal subscription before the official opening. Through this internal subscription, developers will know how many real buyers there are. According to an uncomplicated algorithm, they know how much the house price has been fired and there are real buyers, so they can decide how many houses they can keep for safe speculation. In most cases, they can earn at least the amount of speculation sold to them (corresponding to the above 654.38+0.4 million) without leaking clues, because there are real transactions that cover up this false transaction. This round, there are two direct victims, one is the follow-up buyer and the other is the loan bank; The former wants to get a habitat at a price much higher than that of the pre-subscribers (in fact, the pre-subscription price has been speculated until now). From the beginning of buying a house, they have been shackled by developers and speculators for most of their lives, stumbling on the road of life and being enslaved all their lives; The latter (bank) will take greater risks: if the real estate speculators can't transfer the house to the real buyers again, then it will cause a bad debt-the speculators (developers) take a lot of cash from the bank, leaving the house that can't be transferred, and more importantly, you can't recover the cash because the process seems legal. The false mortgage amount of 600 million yuan in Senhao apartment was exposed, not because the hype was too bad and the amount of funds was too large, but because they diverted speculative funds for other purposes, leading to a bad end. If they use a part of the huge loan fraud funds for the completion of this property, the speculation will be safely banned and become another invisible black hand of rising house prices-everyone can only see the soaring house prices, but they can't see how many properties fall into the pockets of developers and bank officials.

Second, are all bankers so stupid?

Answer: No, the reason is that developers and bank insiders may collude well. Some bank insiders who participate in this operation never thought of making money for the bank by paying loan interest by buyers. Frankly speaking, they may be involved in sharing stolen goods-China real estate developers know how to feed them. So basically, they steal ill-gotten gains together with developers, pass the risks on to the national banks, and the real buyers pay the bill. Once the real buyer can't buy this huge order, the bank will have a crisis. At this time, the people of the whole country pay the bill, and the state must inject capital into banks to eliminate bad debts. Where does the national money come from? Print money! What was the result? Inflation, soaring prices, old people's money is worthless, or people's money has been robbed, who robbed it? It was robbed by the state to stop the leak, which blocked the big hole eaten by developers and some officials of banks. This hole is so big that it will be an ugly scar if it is blocked, which will hurt the people forever.

Third, why is there such a thing in China?

Answer: corrupt officials. China's strangeness, strangeness, nausea, sadness, anger, boredom and helplessness can all be summed up in these two words. These two words are academically the personnel system. In China, it is reasonable to say that officials are not greedy, although it is overdone. The reason is that you can't be an official without upfront investment. Since all the money has been spent to climb, is there any reason not to be greedy? In our country, the law is sometimes a joke. Courts are also managed by government officials. If you don't revolve around him, you won't be an official of the court tomorrow. How did you get this official position in the court? It goes without saying! Therefore, under this personnel system, a hotbed of corrupt officials has formed, and it is more reasonable for bank officials to face money directly and attract corrupt officials. Everyone knows that in any place, the most imposing things are banks and taxes, not to mention being an official and being able to get light energy into them is enviable.

Fourth, does real estate promote the national economy?

Answer: yes; Very big. Developers/speculators and banks will speculate on housing prices, resulting in extremely high housing prices, but people must have a place to live. ! In order to buy a house to live in, everyone can only work hard, which objectively promotes the development of the overall economy. However, although the economy has developed, the distribution of wealth created is seriously misplaced: the industrious people find that the speed of making money cannot keep up with the speed of rising house prices. Accompanied by the applause of the country's economic development, people were haggard and gray-haired in their early years. They looked at the rising house prices blankly and were at a loss; They don't know that real estate developers and bureaucrats are squeezing their blood and sweat bit by bit.

5. What can we do?

Answer: Yes. House prices are out of control to this extent today, and captured experts are screaming out to defend themselves, saying that high house prices are a normal market economy phenomenon. And some people who don't know the truth (except a few speculators) are also scared by the rising housing prices, preferring to be bound and have a place to live, so they subscribe for a new house, which is ignorant. Once the subscription is successful, the house price will rise again, and it seems that hundreds of thousands of houses have not been paid, which seems to be a big bargain. Actually, you sell it and see if anyone really cares about you. In fact, you unconsciously acted as an accomplice of some developers and some bank officials, but also a victim, and you are still complacent there! You just suffered less. You get punched, others get punched twice, and you deserve to be happy? Really, I can only despise you, because it was you who grabbed the punch, which led others to get the two punches. If we don't participate in the subscription, I believe they can't speculate, let alone grab social wealth naked. So I appeal to you, and I hope you: don't participate in any form of subscription, and don't rank any number.

Up to now, some developers and some bank officials have seized a lot of wealth, and the housing price has been rising, and the housing price bubble has become a reality. What we have to do now is to burst this bubble, and we refuse to build our miserable enslaved Yi life on this huge bubble. So I appeal to you to let you know again: if we can't buy a house for the time being, don't buy it, and maintain the status quo for the time being. I believe that if we do this, it will only take half a year to a year, and these insidious developers and some corrupt officials in the bank will be exposed: First, the bank has a large number of bad debts and the national bank has serious economic problems. If this problem is not investigated, it will seriously affect the real interests of other interest groups (remember, there are many interest subjects besides developers and banks). Once the national economy on which they depend has problems, these interest groups will react strongly. 7. They will use the judiciary to intervene in the tracing of bad debts, forcing bank officials to be tried and give up the inside story of bribery, and then trace the bribed developers. Traditionally, these developers jumped up and down and began to buy and trace officials with their own blood. However, because these officials represent the interests of more groups, most unscrupulous developers will face despair. Some illegal wealth will be recovered (if they are not squandered). More directly, house prices will tend to be basically reasonable.

What is a reasonable price? People who work hard with their hands-they are the real creators of social wealth. They can afford to buy a house, and loans will not make them worry about food and clothing all their lives. They can still be in the mood to tease their children after work and show a little smile on their way to work ... These are basic living standards, but they have been ruthlessly destroyed by developers and bank officials.

Some "experts" say that if house prices fall, China's economy will be finished! It is wrong for the government to rescue the market. These captured experts are just saying that some real estate has promoted the development of the steel industry, and investment is indeed related to real estate. Because the prosperity of real estate can drive steel, cement, wood, sand and gravel, retail and other related industries. Both the government and individuals can benefit from the prosperity of real estate. What is the purpose of national affordable housing construction and large-scale infrastructure construction? Undeniably, these national policies will play a role in the later stage, but they are not like some "experts". The house price is too high, ordinary people will definitely not buy it, and they can't afford it. The World Bank and UN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABITATUN-HABIT

This tells us that the internationally recognized price of affordable housing, that is, the "reasonable price level" of housing prices, should be equivalent to the average income of each household for 3-6 years. Many China residents under the pressure of high housing prices may feel sad that "foreigners" can buy houses so easily. But if they want to know the "gold content" of these "outsiders" under the low housing price-income ratio, they may even sigh "crazy".

In developed countries such as Europe and America, the houses bought by citizens with family income of 3-6 years are much larger than ours in terms of per capita area. China's urban residents are far from the "primary housing well-off standard" with a per capita of 30 square meters, while these countries generally have a per capita of 50-90 square meters. Take the United States as an example In recent years, the average area of newly-built houses in their families has reached 2 1 14 square feet, and the average household is about 220 square meters, which is equivalent to 70 square meters of housing per capita. What needs to be pointed out in particular here is that the "area" they calculate is actually the "usable area", excluding corridors, attics, basements and yards, and there will be no "* * *" booth area. While buying a house in China uses "building area" plus * * * booth area, the same "paper area" is actually much less than others. Apart from the difference in "quantity", their "gold content" is unmatched by us in the "quality" of housing: most of them live in independent houses (single villas), while more than 95% of us live in apartments; The house they bought is decorated and they can live in it when they walk in, but what we get after a long time is only a rough house, and it costs a lot of decoration to live in; There are big gardens in front of and behind their houses, some communities also have golf, many people have swimming pools, and the supporting facilities are advanced and luxurious, while most of our houses do not have certain supporting facilities, and many houses are still at the level of "workshops".

Not only the population density and living expenses are much higher than those in our European and American countries, but also in South Korea and Japan, where the ratio of house price to income is not much higher. At the beginning of 2006, the National Land Research Institute of Korea conducted a survey of tens of thousands of families, and compared it with countries such as Britain and the United States. The results showed that Korean nationals had to save all their income for six years before they could buy a house. Especially in Seoul, the capital, it takes 7.7 years to save all the income before buying a house, 3.8 years in big local cities and 2.6 years in small and medium-sized cities. In the United States and Britain, buying a house only takes 2.7 years and 4. 1 year, respectively. According to Japanese official data, Tokyo has newly built an exclusive area of 75-80 square meters (equivalent to our building area of 90- 100 square meters), finely decorated apartments, three bedrooms, 1 hall, 1 kitchen, a balcony of 20 square meters, a corridor of several square meters, and other basic household appliances, and the parking space price is only 30 yuan. The average monthly income of local ordinary working-class families is 560,000 yen. In this city with the highest price level, the highest population density and the highest housing price in the world, the ratio of housing price to income of the working class is also around 4.5-5.

Of course, not every country and city can satisfy residents with the ratio of house price to income. According to the ratio of house price to income, an American consulting company made a survey on the purchasing power of international house prices to see which cities in the world have the most unbearable house prices for residents. As a result, Sydney surpassed London (6.9), new york (7.9) and Tokyo, ranking first with 8.5. So someone asserted that "Australia has the biggest real estate crisis in the world". I really don't know how China officials and people will feel after reading such a "World House Price Report"!

The value of this survey to our analysis of the real estate market also lies in that it gives specific indicators, so that we can speak with data and more scientifically analyze and evaluate whether the real estate in a place is "healthy" and whether the housing price level is reasonable:

When the ratio of house price to income in a place exceeds 5, the international practice holds that the purchasing power of houses in the city is "extremely low";

When the price-to-income ratio of a place exceeds 6, it will be internationally recognized as belonging to the real estate bubble area;

When the ratio of house price to income in a place exceeds 7, it will be recognized as the region that can't bear the international house price the most in the world.