If something can go wrong, something will go wrong.

Have you ever had this experience? When a few guys got together and started talking about someone, someone came in. Some people say it's evil. Others say that this is "talk about Cao Cao, Cao Cao arrives."

Furthermore, some female employees in the unit had just taken time out to buy some groceries during working hours. They were catching up to check their posts. They stepped in before the leader and came in behind: "Mother-in-law, I haven't been working well all day, and I went to work again." Where have you gone?" As a result, it left a bad impression on the leader.

Some people have acquaintances outside of the couple. When they accompany their lover to eat, go to a karaoke bar, or enter a shopping mall, the more they are afraid of being seen by acquaintances, the more they will meet acquaintances. It’s evil. This is called "If you don't want others to know, you have to do nothing unless you do it yourself."

We have experienced this kind of "evil" thing for a long time, and we have become accustomed to it. Those of us who are engaged in safety management have an occupational disease. As long as we are irritable or in a bad mood for no reason, we will immediately think about it: During the last safety inspection, two planers in workshop A were missed. Is something going to happen? A few days ago, when I was taking technical measures, I forgot the isolation belt. Is something going to happen? For a while, the records of the power plant were too perfect, and I didn’t think deeply about whether something was going to happen... The result of the worry was: "If something bad might happen, it will happen."

We are engaged in safety People who have been around for a long time get together and joke with each other: Could it be, could it be, it's all the fault of "Could it be".

What a coincidence, there really is a Murphy in the world. His full name is Edward Murphy, and he is a captain engineer in the United States Air Force. Edward Murphy is remembered in history for a joke he made in 1949. He decided that a colleague was unlucky and joked: "If something is likely to be messed up, just let the colleague do it." It’s bound to get messed up.” What a “crow’s mouth.” Later, this sentence spread widely and spread to all parts of the world.

In the process of spreading, this joke gradually lost its original limitations and evolved into various forms, which is called Murphy's Law, or Murphy's Law: One , if there are two choices, one of which will lead to disaster, then someone will make this choice. Second, wherever it is possible to get it wrong, someone will get it wrong, in the worst possible way and at the worst possible time. Third, if anything can go wrong, it will. Fourth, a good start may not necessarily lead to good results; a bad start may lead to worse results. A common rule is: "If something bad is possible, no matter how small the possibility is, it will always happen and cause the greatest possible loss."

Mathematical statistics and probability theory can be used to calculate Murphy's Law explains. When doing anything, if there is objectively a wrong approach, or there is a possibility of some kind of accident, no matter how small the possibility is, when you do it repeatedly, or someone Follow the wrong approach and accidents will happen at some point. To put it more clearly, as long as the possibility of an accident exists, no matter how small the possibility is, the accident will happen sooner or later.

There was a mechanic who was changing the engine oil of the car at the car wash tank. After changing the oil of the first car, some waste oil was splashed on the tank surface, so he sprinkled some sand, started the car and got off the platform. Then, he changed the oil of the second car. After adding the oil, more waste oil was splashed on the tank surface. He sprinkled some sand again, started the car and got off the platform. When he tried to do this after changing the oil on the third car, he was out of luck, as the car slid down and rolled onto its side as soon as it started. Vehicles were damaged and people were injured.

Tires will slip when exposed to oil, let alone engine oil, and an accident will definitely occur in the end.

We must have a good safety attitude, we must be aware of the probability of safety accidents, and we must effectively avoid accidents. This is the value of Murphy's Law to our safety management.

Why are people superstitious? It is because we feel powerless and helpless that we become superstitious. The earliest purpose of setting off firecrackers during the New Year was to drive away the evil spirits of the year. Nowadays, many projects also fire off cannons before they start. Whether or not the cannon should be fired, how many shots should be fired, and whether the fire can be extinguished during the firing of the cannon, etc., all seem to be "foreseen" good or bad omens for the project.

Some managers are more concerned about the cannon fired at the project's groundbreaking ceremony than about the safety of the project itself. Some companies have frequent accidents, and the old factory director was jailed for this. After taking office, the new factory director did not first consider eliminating hidden dangers. Instead, he invited statues of gods to burn incense and kowtow to pray for God's blessings when he came to work every day. Some employees believe that "people's lives are predestined." When encountering an accident, the first thing they think of is that this disaster should have been in their fate. Murphy's Law scientifically explains that we must get rid of superstition and believe in science. There are human reasons behind the accident, work errors, and luck. All these will inevitably lead to the accident.

"What can go wrong will definitely go wrong." This sentence is not acceptable to everyone. Negative people and people with poor psychological quality will use Murphy's Law as an excuse, feel powerless, let it go, do nothing, and have no choice but to wait for the accident to happen. This is not the attitude of a strong man, nor is it a scientific attitude. The correct mentality is to treat the judgment that "if something can go wrong, it will definitely go wrong", you should not only see the terrible results, but also see that its premise "may go wrong." Why might something go wrong? It’s because people have already done it wrong in the early stages. If no mistakes are made, the result of the accident is completely avoidable. The way to avoid it is to firmly grasp the "possible mistakes". Change passive after-the-fact management to active management beforehand, do every detail well, eliminate the causes of accidents, and be determined not to make mistakes. In this way, the results mentioned by Murphy will have no premise.

The possibility of causing the serious consequences that Murphy said is very small, but this small possibility will definitely cause serious consequences. What Murphy's Law taught me is that you cannot ignore the danger of small probability. As the saying goes, "a dike of a thousand miles will collapse in an ant nest." If you are careless, you will regret it for the rest of your life. Don't do evil because it's small, don't do good because it's small. We must strive for excellence in any work we do and strive to meet safety standards. Even with such a majestic project, every detail needs to be taken care of. World-famous companies such as Motorola, AlliedSignal, and General Electric have all focused on the post-99.99 era. Why? Because the standard of 99?99 is too loose. To ensure quality and avoid accidents, the standard must be set higher than 99.99. The world's aerospace industry has long targeted the reliability of each part of the launch vehicle to reach 99.99%. The probability of failure is less than 1 in 10,000. However, since there are tens of thousands of parts, the cumulative risk probability will increase. , rocket launch failure accidents still occur frequently.

We must weave a safety net, "the sky is vast and sparse but not leaking." Safety management must be strict, so tight that no subtle hidden danger can be missed, not even one ten thousandth. We must be foolproof and take strict precautions against "just in case". This is also the meaning of Murphy's Law.