Discuss a question: Is the Three Gorges Reservoir in danger in the future?

The Three Gorges Dam in Hegang has been controversial from the project establishment to the construction process, and some of them are still sensational. What does it matter? No investigation, no right to speak. This is the main reason why I want to take part in this green camp.

The Three Gorges Dam has been completed. What we need to do now is how to reduce hidden dangers. Man is insignificant in front of nature. Although there have been many debates before the construction of the Three Gorges, people's understanding of nature is very limited now. This is an unprecedented project, just like doing a big ecological experiment. Once the experiment fails, the consequences will be very serious!

I won't talk about the great role of the Three Gorges Project in economic construction and flood control, but mainly about hidden dangers:

1. Pollution problem

Dozens of large, medium and small industrial cities along the reservoir area, including Chongqing, discharge pollutants into the Three Gorges day and night, and factories, mines, hospitals, graves, toilets and garbage dumps below 1.35 meters along the river will be submerged at the bottom of the river. The water in the reservoir will be blocked by the dam, and will no longer flow eastward happily, soaking in these pollutants and becoming the only drinking water source for people along the reservoir. After impoundment, the flow velocity of the main stream of the Yangtze River slows down, the self-purification ability decreases, and sewage and garbage overlap. How to ensure the water quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the future? However, it is unimaginable to clean up such a large amount of garbage and build so many sewage treatment plants in steep canyons, with great workload, technical difficulty and huge funds.

2. Sediment problem

The average annual runoff of the Three Gorges dam site is 4.51100 million cubic meters, and the average sediment transport from 1.995 to 1.990 is 5.2 1 100 million tons, and the average sediment concentration is1.9 kg per cubic meter. After the completion of the reservoir, the upstream water level rises and the flow rate slows down, which will inevitably lead to reservoir siltation, and the Three Gorges Reservoir is no exception. How to deal with the problem of sediment deposition in the Three Gorges Project? Will it repeat the mistakes of Sanmenxia in the past? At the same time, after the initial impoundment of the Three Gorges Project, the clear water discharged, and the sediment concentration in the discharged river channel decreased, which led to the enhancement of sediment carrying capacity, and the riverbed of the Lower Jingjiang River was seriously scoured, which may cause the downstream levee to collapse. At the end of March this year, the banks of Yueyang Yangtze River levee in Hunan Province broke in many places, which is closely related to the clear water erosion.

3. Ecological problems

The Three Gorges Project has created such a large lake, what impact has it had on the local climate? Will the butterfly effect affect the climate in other regions? Meanwhile, how to solve the problem of fish migration? Although the construction of Gezhouba left a migration passage for fish, the fish didn't know it was for it, and they didn't go there. The reproduction of these fish has been greatly affected, which will undoubtedly have a vicious impact on the biological chain of the Yangtze River.

4. Geological disasters

During the impoundment of the Three Gorges, the water level line fluctuates between 135 m and 175 m every year, and the water volume fluctuates between 30 m and 40 m every year. Because of this fluctuation and change of water level, geological stability is challenged. The original stable landslide, or cofferdam, will endanger the original balance after such a situation occurs. Will geological disasters occur frequently? According to some experts' prediction, the water level will reach 175 meters, and in the years after 2009, the occurrence of geological disasters may increase, not decrease!

At the same time, the Three Gorges Project also faces many other challenges. How can so many immigrants be resettled to stabilize public opinion? How to rescue countless precious cultural relics in the reservoir area? The safety of the dam, how to ensure the safety of the dam in military strikes and terrorist attacks, and how to prevent the dam from falling into the hands of some people with ulterior motives? In addition, the Three Gorges Project is expected to promote the Yangtze River shipping, but now it has become the bottleneck of the Yangtze River shipping, because its capacity is not as good as expected. You need to turn over the dam to sail smoothly. How many hidden dangers are there in the Three Gorges Project?

/question/40322 173.html

The Three Gorges Dam is rock solid.

The military security of the Three Gorges has been demonstrated for decades.

In fact, as early as 1958, the civil air defense safety of the Three Gorges Project has been put on the agenda. 1958, the Central Chengdu Conference decided to build the Three Gorges Project, in order to realize Chairman Mao's grand wish of "high gorge out of Pinghu". From 65438 to 0959, the central government began to plan the Three Gorges Project, taking into account the war factors, and at the same time began to study the civil air defense safety of the dam. The civil air defense team established by the state has brought together more than 60 experts in various fields, ranging from 1959 to 196 1. First, the conventional weapons attack test was carried out on the Three Gorges Project, and a large number of real and reliable experimental data were obtained. In the past decade or so, there have been more than 200 experiments to simulate cutting-edge weapons alone.

From 1964 to 1972, China scientists conducted seven nuclear bomb experiments on four simulated dams, and obtained extremely valuable data. Experiments show that the most serious situation is that when the dam is hit by 654.38+00,000 tons of nuclear weapons, it will produce a breach of 654.38+0,000 meters. From 1978 to 1988, experts conducted dam-break experiments in the Three Gorges continuously to study the influence range of dam-break flood after the dam was attacked by nuclear weapons and the countermeasures to reduce losses.

Conventional weapons are useless to the Three Gorges Dam.

The Three Gorges Dam is a solid concrete gravity dam, which consists of 26.89 million tons of concrete, 290,000 tons of steel bars and 255,000 tons of steel. Dam height 1 85m, dam bottom1,2 1 m, dam height and dam width all exceed100m.

Regarding the firmness of the Three Gorges Dam, Cao Guangjing, deputy general manager of China Three Gorges Project Development Corporation, made it clear that the design features of the Three Gorges Dam can minimize the losses caused by the attack. He said: "The Three Gorges Dam is a gravity dam, which means that each dam block can rely on its own gravity to ensure its own stability. Conventional weapons have no effect on the destructiveness of the Three Gorges Dam. If a nuclear war really happens, it will be a devastating blow to all mankind. However, wars are generally forewarned. We can drain the water in the reservoir in advance, and the destructive effect of nuclear weapons is limited. "

The Three Gorges Reservoir is not "a basin of water"

In addition, the Three Gorges Reservoir is a "first-line water", not a "basin of water" as many people imagine. The length of the reservoir is more than 600 kilometers, and the average width is only 1. 1 km. The lower reaches of the reservoir are the Three Gorges Valley, with a total length of 200 kilometers, which is a rare "river bed" reservoir.

According to the demonstration report of the Three Gorges Project, even if the dam is suddenly bombed, the threat to the downstream big cities is not great. After the dam break, it takes at least two days for the river to flow from the upstream of the reservoir to the dam due to the twists and turns of the river channel in the reservoir area. Moreover, there are three big bends on the river from the Three Gorges to Yichang, and each bend is a very high mountain peak, which can effectively buffer the water flow. After arriving in Yichang, the river widened and the water flow slowed down sharply. There are several small tributaries of the Yangtze River near Yichang, which can accommodate part of the water flow. Gezhouba, the first dam of the Yangtze River, can block part of the water flow. From Yichang to Jingzhou, there are several relatively large tributaries of the Yangtze River that can return to the water. After entering the Jingjiang flood diversion area, the pressure of Wuhan, Jiujiang and other middle-reaches cities can be alleviated by flood diversion.

In order to obtain the accurate data of the flood affected area after the Three Gorges Project was breached by nuclear weapons, the water conservancy department has conducted many years of research and experiments. The test shows that the highest water level measured in Yichang is basically the same under three different conditions: the breach width is 1000m, 700m and 400m m. The results of many dam-break experiments show that if the Three Gorges Dam breaks, the damage to the downstream area is limited.

Skynet protects the dam.

The construction of the Three Gorges Project was decided by the party and the state after more than 30 years of repeated argumentation. For a long time, people have always thought that the Three Gorges Dam may become an important target for future military strikes. Therefore, while building the dam, China has also built a strict defense network. Although the project will be completed in 2009, the relevant defense measures have been deployed and are still being strengthened.

Since the founding of New China more than 50 years ago, national air defense has always been the top priority. At present, China's air defense capability has great advantages in the atmosphere. The defense system in the atmosphere is divided into three layers: high, medium and low. The main forces responsible for defense tasks are air force aviation, air force ground air defense and army air defense.

The main weapons of defense are: surface-to-air missiles, various types of combat aircraft, individual air-to-air missiles, various types of anti-aircraft guns and anti-aircraft machine guns. It is reported that the basic work of air defense fighters and weapons and equipment responsible for protecting the Three Gorges Dam is to evacuate the Three Gorges Dam from the inside out in accordance with the Army Air Defense Force, Air Force Air Defense Force and Air Force Aviation. Its task assignment is: air force aviation is mainly responsible for high altitude and mid-air, and air defense forces of air force and army are responsible for low altitude and mid-air.

The Three Gorges Dam is located in the interior of China. Any military weapon that wants to break through China's multi-level airtight three-dimensional defense system and sneak attack on the Three Gorges Dam belongs to daydreaming. With the super military strength of the United States, unless they want to crash and burn, they can only talk on paper!

Recently, a colleague cited a pile of data, saying that the bombing of the Three Gorges Dam would cause serious floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and lead to a large-scale reduction of grain crops and cash crops, and a large number of colleagues' troops and equipment would be destroyed.

I think this is too alarmist. In the case of conventional weapons, and when the storage reaches the maximum capacity:

[Transferred from Iron Blood Community/]

1. The Three Gorges Dam Reservoir has a storage capacity of 40 billion cubic meters, but don't forget that the storage capacity of 100 billion cubic meters is dead, that is to say, even if all the gates of the Three Gorges are opened, the storage capacity will not be exhausted. The Three Gorges Reservoir stored water for three months before the dead reservoir was full, and the discharge at that time was 1 1,000 cubic meters. The flood discharge capacity of the Three Gorges is designed according to the recorded maximum discharge of the Yangtze River10.5 million cubic meters, that is, it takes10.5 million seconds to turn on all flood discharge capacity (23 surface holes, 22 deep holes, left factory10.6, right factory10.6, 8 underground powerhouse, left flushing sand+)

2. What is the flood control capacity of the Yangtze River? 1998 The flood peak discharge of the Changjiang River is 50,000, which comes once every year, and the flood peak reaches 1 10,000 (once in a hundred years). At this time, Jingjiang flood diversion began. At present, the siltation along the Yangtze River is serious (serious soil erosion), and there is no flood diversion in 1998. At present, there are large reservoirs in all major tributaries of the Yangtze River, which is generally good for flood control of the Yangtze River. In other words, even if there is a flow of 6.5438+million, the safety of the downstream of Jingjiang River can be guaranteed. Even the flow of 1.5 million (once in a thousand years) did not flood the whole middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River at that time, and only Hubei, Anhui and Jiangxi were affected. What is the concept of 654.38+ 10,000, that is, 8.6 billion water is discharged every day. Even if there is a once-in-a-century flood in the Yangtze River and the Three Gorges Dam is bombed, the area affected by the flood will not exceed the recorded once-in-a-century flood. In addition, at least five large reservoirs will be built in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in the next few years, which is also very effective in regulating the storage capacity of the main stream.

Is it so easy to bomb the Three Gorges?

The Three Gorges certainly has its weaknesses, but it is really not easy to produce a catastrophic flood. First of all, the "dam-crossing trough (one is a ship lift and the other is a ship lock)" mentioned in the article "The Consequences of the Bombing of the Three Gorges Dam" is a steel structure. The steel structure is characterized by willfulness, not brittleness, and other parts of the glass will lose strength when it is broken, but have you ever seen the armor of a tank completely destroyed by a hole? Even if the hole can be enlarged due to the impact of flood, it will take time, not to mention that there is an access door in front of any working gate, and safety measures such as generator entrance and quick door can ensure the rapid repair of local damage.

4. The dam body is of reinforced concrete structure with strong anti-explosion ability;

I remember that when the upstream concrete cofferdam was demolished in the third phase project, a large amount of explosives were placed in the blasting gallery (the height of the gallery from the water surface 10), and the structure was only partially loose, and there was no blasting surface.

[Transferred from Iron Blood Community/]

....

So I think it is difficult for even terrorists to fly planes to the Three Gorges Dam to cause a flood.

If terrorists use nuclear bombs, they must detonate them in deep water. For example, bikini crossroads project. It is estimated that this is still difficult.