Why did the national housing prices suddenly fall?

The vast majority of market analysis and prediction will take land supply as an important basis for judgment. There is a big difference between the pre-supply land and the actual supply land. The actual supply land is not directly proportional to the digestion speed of the market inventory, which will really affect the house price.

2. Supply and demand

Land supply is linked to supply and demand, but it is not the same as supply and demand. Only when the customer's demand is not proportional to the market inventory will it really have an impact. For example, Xi 'an is robbing people, and a large number of people have settled down, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand.

Step 3 make a big splash

Real estate hoarding, a developer uses the media, self-media, intermediary joint speculation, hiring people to queue up and other means to drive up housing prices.

4. Limit purchases and loans

Non-registered population can't buy without social security tax, the down payment ratio of two sets has been greatly increased, three sets of loans have been refused, and the purchase restriction and interest rate have been liberalized. It will really affect the rise and fall of house prices.

5. Developers are short of money.

Because of the speed problem, developers are anxious to pay back the money and other reasons are also one of the reasons for the price reduction.

House prices began to fall mainly because of these four fundamental factors?

Factor one, real estate speculation is strictly restricted. The rapid rise of housing prices in China in the past 20 years has absolutely nothing to do with real estate speculators. Many times, house prices can obviously stabilize, but it is because the real estate speculators continue to hoard and speculate that house prices will advance by leaps and bounds. Therefore, at the end of 20 16, the state set the tone of not speculating in the property market and issued a series of policies to restrict real estate speculation.

Although the regulatory policies of many cities have shown signs of relaxation recently, these cities are also taking care of the interests of just-needed property buyers, and the crackdown on real estate speculators has not diminished. Whether it is the threshold of buying a house or the cost of holding it, it will bring great pressure to real estate speculators.

Second, the birth rate is declining. Whenever the property market develops, it needs to rely on the demand for buying houses. Even if the real estate speculators speculate in real estate, they need to have enough demand for buying houses, otherwise the houses in the hands of the real estate speculators will not be sold at all. The current property market is such a property market with insufficient demand for buying houses, because the decline of the birth rate in China is too obvious.

According to official data, in 20021year, the national birth rate was only 0.75%, and the newly-added birth population was only10.62 million. Although this figure seems to be not low, except for the deaths last year, the net increase in population in 202 1 year is actually only 480,000. According to this trend, the population is likely to have a negative growth this year, which means that the demand for buying houses in the market will be less and less. In addition, some buyers are unwilling to buy houses after seeing this trend, and the houses in the market are likely to face the dilemma of not selling.

Factor three, the ratio of house price to income exceeds the warning line. Real estate is the pillar industry of economic development. The economic development in the past few years is really driven by real estate, which is why real estate developed rapidly in the past. But the problem is that the basic situation has changed now, because real estate has hindered economic development after the income ratio in the vicinity has exceeded the warning line.

China Academy of Social Sciences once gave a report, clearly pointing out that when the ratio of house price to income exceeds 9.3, the contribution of real estate to the economy turns from positive to negative, and the basic role of consumption is obvious. Everyone can feel this. After the house price rises, everyone's spending power will be reduced a lot because of the mortgage repayment. Not to mention that real estate will occupy a lot of money, which will limit the development of some physical industries and have a huge negative impact on economic development. Therefore, even in order to ensure the normal development of the economy, house prices cannot continue to rise, at least not before the income of residents increases.

Factor four, the diversity of life choices. The country has long made it clear that houses are only for living! Therefore, if the housing demand can be met, whether the house is owned or not has no influence on ordinary residents. And this will affect the trend of housing prices, because now residents have many choices when solving housing problems, such as renting a house!

With the continuous improvement of the right to rent and sell, the living experience of renting a house is getting better and better, and you can enjoy the same social security, education and other benefits as buying a house. More importantly, the cost of renting a house now is much lower than that of buying a house, so in this case, there will definitely be more people choosing to rent a house in the future. In this case, the possibility of a rise in the property market will become even smaller.

What is the impact of falling house prices?

1. Many heavily indebted families will go bankrupt.

In this regard, let me give you an example. If you buy a 5 million house in a first-tier city and borrow 3 million yuan, when the house price drops by 50%, the house is only worth 2.5 million yuan, but the loan remains unchanged, so you can use the loan to buy a big house.

If the loan is abandoned, the bank will take away the house worth 2.5 million yuan and have the right to claim the remaining 500 thousand yuan loan from the owner. For individuals, there is no more assets except houses and deposits, which is actually equivalent to bankruptcy.

2. The house is more difficult to sell.

We all know that most people's investment psychology is to buy up and not buy down. When commodity prices rise, people will think that they will continue to raise prices and follow up their purchases. When commodity prices fall, they will think that commodity prices will continue to fall, and they will be conservative when buying to prevent losses.

The same is true of real estate investment. When house prices fall, it will be difficult for people who own several properties to realize their properties. If these properties have loans, and buyers do not have enough cash to repay the loans, these properties are likely to be taken away by banks, leading to personal bankruptcy.