Analysis of the causes of RMB depreciation What are the effects of RMB depreciation?

Judging from the natural trend of the economy, on the one hand, the US economy is gradually strengthening, on the other hand, the China economy is gradually weakening. In contrast, the pressure of RMB depreciation will naturally appear. The change in the relative growth rate of the economic situation between China and the United States shows that the exchange rate pegged to the US dollar is gradually deviating from the equilibrium exchange rate, so there has actually been a market demand for RMB depreciation.

The relative changes in the economic situation between China and the United States are the main reasons for RMB depreciation. There are many determinants of exchange rate, but exchange rate fluctuations should be mainly understood from the performance of the real economy. Other short-term factors and expected factors can only be regarded as a disturbance. After the disturbance, the exchange rate will eventually return to the exchange rate determined by fundamentals.

A certain degree of RMB depreciation will hedge the adverse effects of trade friction on enterprises, and also reserve space for the possible appreciation of non-US currencies against the US dollar in the future. After all, trade frictions often lead to the depreciation of the dollar. Some time ago, the central bank RRR cut interest rates, on the one hand, buffered the impact of deleveraging, on the other hand, it also brought the effect of exchange rate depreciation.

Extended data:

China has the ability to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable;

From the economic fundamentals, China's current economic growth rate is still higher than that of most countries; The effects of macro-control measures have gradually emerged, infrastructure investment has accelerated, real estate sales have improved, and the economy has shown signs of stabilization and recovery. In addition, China has a high foreign exchange reserve, a low inflation rate, and a safe fiscal deficit and government debt.

It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of hot money flows, crack down on illegal capital exchanges, further improve the legal and compliant two-way circulation channels of domestic and foreign capital, conduct bold experiments in overseas investment by qualified domestic investors, domestic investment by qualified foreign investors, and pilot projects for opening capital accounts in free trade zones, sum up experience, and steadily promote the opening of China's capital accounts.

People's Daily Online-RMB depreciation experts say it is not a bad thing.

China Social Science Network-Why did RMB depreciate recently?