The United States has gathered three aircraft carriers. Why is it difficult for Trump to make a decision on the DPRK?

The United States has gathered three aircraft carriers. Why is it difficult for Trump to make up his mind to fight against the DPRK?

Chatting in the lecture hall overlooking the world think tank, a friend said that three American aircraft carriers gathered in Northeast Asia and would definitely fight North Korea. Long Kaifeng, a military commentator, insisted on his strategic judgment: the United States still dared not fight North Korea. It is difficult for President Trump to make up his mind to go to war with the DPRK. Let me give you an analysis.

Never doubted the military strength of the United States. The United States has eleven aircraft carriers, F-22 stealth fighters, F-35 stealth fighters and B-2 stealth bombers, as well as advanced nuclear submarines and Tomahawk cruise missiles. From a military and technical point of view, the United States has no problem in fighting North Korea. Therefore, judging whether the United States will fight North Korea should not be considered from the military strength and technical level. That's not strategic thinking, but campaign and tactical thinking. Deciding whether to wage war is mainly a strategic decision. As the saying goes: soldiers, the country's major events, the way of life and death, must be observed.

Northeast Asia is a very important place for the United States. Because Northeast Asia is one of the three fulcrums of American global hegemony. As we all know, the global hegemony of the United States has three military fulcrums: one is NATO. The second is the US-Japan-ROK military alliance. The third is the Middle East military base group, which is mainly manifested in the military alliance between the United States and Israel. These three military hegemonic fulcrums are independent and interrelated. In particular, NATO is closely related to the military fulcrum of the United States and Israel. The military fulcrum in Northeast Asia is not closely related to NATO and the US-Israel military alliance, which is mainly caused by geopolitical factors. The United States relies on these three hegemonic fulcrums to achieve military control over Europe, Middle East energy and Asia and ensure its political discourse power and economic hegemony.

Long Kaifeng, a military commentator, believes that when the United States fought the Iraq war, its hegemony began to decline. Why do you say that? The United States launched the Gulf War with the authorization of the United Nations and the military support of NATO and other countries, so the United States won politically and militarily. It shows that the United States is the authority of world leaders. The United States fought the Afghan war with the military support of NATO and other countries, and even Russia and China expressed their support. Therefore, the United States also won the war in Afghanistan politically and militarily, which also reflects the authority of the United States as a world leader. The war in Afghanistan later failed because the United States stayed in Afghanistan and turned the United States from a just anti-terrorist into an aggressor in Afghanistan.

The United States fought the Iraq war, and only Britain followed suit. China, Russia and Europe both expressed strong opposition. This means that American hegemony began to decline, the United States lost the strategic support and leadership of big countries such as China, Russia and Europe, and everyone no longer recognized the United States as the world's boss. The United States attacked Iraq, split the United Nations, split NATO, and made the United States lose the leadership authority of the United Nations and NATO. Once the United States loses the leadership authority of the world and NATO, it means that the United States will not only rush to the front line by itself, but also be unable to follow, and will also encounter opposition from other big countries.

The United States demanded that the Syrian leader step down, which violated the UN Charter. Not only was there no big country to follow, but it was also resolutely opposed by China, Russian, Iranian and other countries. Russia not only resolutely opposes it politically, but also directly sends troops to support Syria militarily, which makes the United States lose face and the war in Syria is still in a stalemate. The United States supported the Syrian opposition and even bombed Syria, which plunged a sovereign country in Syria into civil war and displaced the Syrian people. It was terrible. Not only Syria, but also the crimes committed by the United States in Iraq have not been liquidated, which has caused the irresponsible hegemony of the United States to deeply hurt the people in the Middle East, and the United States has also lost the hearts of the people in the Middle East.

We often say: those who win people's hearts win the world. To become a world leader, the United States must win the hearts of the world. America has lost the hearts of the people in the Middle East. If the United States fires the first shot at North Korea, Northeast Asia will be plunged into war, and the fate of the people of Japan, North Korea and South Korea will be the same as that of the people of Iraq and Syria. This means that the United States will lose the hearts of Northeast Asian countries. This is the biggest loss in American politics and the first reason why the United States dare not fight North Korea.

The second reason why the United States did not dare to fight North Korea was that the United States was used by Japan and South Korea, became a pawn of Japan and South Korea, and rushed to the front line against North Korea. How can a leader rush to the front line? Mostly behind the scenes. In Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea are afraid of North Korea's retaliation and dare not rush to the front to confront North Korea. This also shows that Japan, South Korea and the United States are not United on the North Korean issue and look at American jokes. As a world leader, it is really sad that the United States was used by Japan and South Korea to rush to the front line of confrontation and become a pawn. Even if the United States wins, it will win without using force; Once the United States suffers any military losses, it will become a joke of the world, and the result of riding a tiger is nuclear war.

The third reason why the United States dare not fight North Korea is the two unknown factors of China and Russia. The US military attack on North Korea will certainly endanger the geostrategic interests of China and Russia. Because North Korea is a strategic buffer zone between Chinese and Russian forces against the United States, you, the United States, canceled this strategic buffer zone without the permission of China and Russia, directly deployed American troops to the Sino-Russian border, and drove a large number of North Korean refugees to China and Russia. This is definitely an unacceptable consequence for both China and Russia. Therefore, China and Russia will inevitably support North Korea militarily and resist the invasion of the United States. In this way, the United States has become a chess piece, while China and Russia are chess players, which is unacceptable to the United States.

Therefore, judging whether a person commits a crime depends on his motives. To judge whether a country goes to war depends on its strategic purpose and motivation. President Trump is a shrewd businessman, and it is impossible to calculate this strategic account that only loses money. Even if the American war against Korea can drive the capital, technology and talents of Japan and South Korea to the United States and complete the shearing of wool by the United States against Japan and South Korea, it will be to quench thirst by drinking poison after all, because after the second Korean War, the United States may lose its control over Japan and South Korea and its hegemony in the western Pacific and even the Asia-Pacific region.

Our consistent position is that the North Korean nuclear issue must be resolved through political dialogue. Because the origin of the North Korean nuclear issue is caused by the threat of American hegemony. As the saying goes, only when the United States abandons its threat to the DPRK can North Korea abandon its nuclear program. Hegemony can't solve any contradictions, but will only intensify contradictions, leading to greater losses for both sides, and even triggering regional turmoil, which is not worth the candle. As one of the important leading countries in the world, it is time for the United States to reflect on itself. How does it win the trust of the world? How to assume the responsibility of leading the world? What the world needs and welcomes is how to lead the world to develop together instead of destroying world peace.