What's the impact on China? What is the real appeal of the United States to launch a trade war?

As the second largest economy in the world, the trade relationship between China and the United States has been developing in friction and twists and turns since the two countries established trade relations. With the development of economic and trade relations between the two countries after China's entry into WTO, the frequency of trade frictions is increasing, and the United States has become the country with the most and fiercest trade frictions with China.

For a long time, it has been the goal of several generations of China people to concentrate on economic development and turn China from a rich country into a powerful country. However, as China's economic aggregate crossed the 80 trillion yuan mark last year, Americans who had always regarded themselves as the world's hegemons could not sit still, and Trump began to get impatient. Of course, the reason why he can't sit still is not only because of the rapid rise of China's economic aggregate, but the poor cat will talk about it later.

On March 8 this year, Trump unilaterally announced that according to the so-called "232 investigation", a tariff of 25% was imposed on imported steel products and a tariff of 10% was imposed on imported aluminum products on the grounds of "national security". In the early morning of March 23, Trump announced that according to the results of "30 1 Investigation", large-scale tariffs will be imposed on goods imported from China, and China enterprises will be restricted from investing and merging in the United States; On April 3rd, the United States issued a list of taxes on China, involving about 50 billion US dollars of our products, and the tax number was about 1300, especially for China's high-tech fields, which was thunderous.

Of course, China has never succumbed to the so-called 30 1 survey in the United States. In the past repeated trade contests, China always responded with blows, and this time is no exception. Fighting is not about arguing with anyone, but about being better than anyone. Subsequently, China also listed a series of counter-measures list. The first round of $3 billion involved seven categories of 128 products * * * about $3 billion in US exports. The second round of upgrades, the list includes US soybeans, automobiles, chemicals, etc. 14 and 106, with a total price equal to that of the United States, amounting to 50 billion yuan.

Of course, these are all shouting from a distance. According to American law, their trade war measures will not be implemented for two months at the latest, and then China will follow suit. It can be said that the needle is pointed at the wheat, and it will not budge. It seems that the United States' taxation is aimed at high-tech imported goods from China, while China's countermeasures are some agricultural products and pork with little technical content, and high value-added goods such as large aircraft and apples are not involved. But the poor cat found that there was a mystery, and only Americans knew best how painful it was to counter it.

China has always been the main exporter of soybeans in the United States, accounting for 62%. In 20 17, the United States exported 32.854 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 34.39% of China's total imports. To make matters worse, more than 95% of soybeans in the United States are concentrated in 10 agricultural states in the midwest of the United States. Eight of them supported Trump in the 20 16 US election. Maybe soybeans are not important, but the ticket source is gone. In the next midterm elections, Trump still has a lot in mind. It's just that this move hit his acupuncture point directly.

Speaking of now, the text has not been mentioned. Why did the United States launch a trade war so recklessly and crazily? Don't worry, we'll start in a minute. I have to mention a passage here, that is, in order to build momentum, the Americans launched a trade war on the one hand and habitually threatened China with force on the other. Shortly after the United States announced its trade with China in late March, the American warship "Mastin" also broke into the sea area of China's Meiji Island 12 nautical mile in the South China Sea and was driven away by two frigates from China. Recently, the Americans once again sent the aircraft carrier Roosevelt and a number of warships into the South China Sea in an attempt to improve the tone of the trade war through this momentum. It turns out that China has sent more than 40 state-of-the-art ships, including Liaoning, to conduct high-profile military exercises in the South China Sea, and has also designated a military exercise area so that Americans can not withdraw without fighting.

For a long time, American political elites and their interest groups have been living a luxurious life by printing US dollar bills. Relying on the advantage of becoming the world's financial hegemon after World War II, they have no scruples about indulging in the world wool and spending money like water. So far, China accounts for one-fifth of all foreign-held US debt, reaching $65,438+$0.2 trillion. To Americans' horror, since the beginning of 20 18, foreign investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds have declined for the third consecutive month, because rising interest rates have eroded their investment value. At the same time, the size of US Treasury bonds held by China has also dropped to the lowest level since July last year.

On the surface, Trump said that the tax increase on trade with China was due to the huge trade deficit between China and the United States, which had to be reduced. China asked with a smile: You are not selling your high-tech products here and there. How do you reduce the deficit? Americans are speechless.

In fact, in view of the frequent scientific and technological blockades and petty actions in the United States, China has banned the import of foreign garbage since last July, which makes most countries such as the United States, Britain, Japan and South Korea feel inexplicable fear. China has always been recognized as a garbage dump in the world. Although China can get some benefits from importing foreign garbage, China is not what it used to be. A clear refusal to import foreign garbage is the most powerful counterattack against the United States and other countries. At the meeting of the WTO Committee on Trade in Goods held on March 23rd, the representative of the United States said that China's import restrictions on recyclable products greatly disrupted the operation of the global scrap metal supply chain, and asked China to lift the import ban on "foreign garbage". What a joke!

Well, more than one friend asked, Trump is crazy. Is America crazy? Why do they take the initiative to start a trade war when China is becoming increasingly powerful, and do not hesitate to kill one thousand enemies and lose eight hundred? The reason here is actually very complicated and not complicated.

Whether it is steel, soybeans or garbage, these are all appearances. In fact, the biggest fear of the United States for China is that after nearly 20 years of operation, China crude oil futures went public on March 26th this year on the 40th anniversary of the reform and opening up, and were priced in RMB for international investors.

A world's largest importer of crude oil, so far there is no pricing power for crude oil. Nowadays, the listing of China crude oil futures not only provides effective price risk management tools for enterprises, but also strengthens China's pricing power in the international oil price market. This move also broke the monopoly pricing power of Britain and the United States in the international crude oil market (WTI in the United States and Brent in the United Kingdom have become the mainstream pricing benchmarks in the global crude oil market, and now their trading volume accounts for more than 95% of the world), which is undoubtedly a fatal blow to Americans who have been eating empty salaries for a long time and have no profit.

Crude oil futures contracts denominated in RMB can be completely converted into gold. Once this works, some trading partners of China can directly convert RMB into gold, so there is no need to convert RMB into US dollars. This is the last thing the United States and Britain want to see. At first, Iraq, an oil-producing country, tried to abandon the mode of crude oil settlement in dollars. As a result, Saddam Hussein was hanged by the United States for lying about a small bottle of washing powder. However, with the listing of China crude oil futures, including Russian, Angolan, Venezuelan, even Saudi Arabia, Indian and other countries. Fully support the dollar, and they are tired of the long-term prospect of the dollar. All this is based on China's comprehensive national strength.

The most unacceptable thing for Americans happened like this. The Americans held their breath and were very angry. Only then did the so-called 232 and 30 1 investigations be used again to attack China. When they were helpless in the face of China, they sent warships and aircraft carriers to the South China Sea in China, trying to intimidate China. However, all this is too late for them. China kept a low profile for decades, just for this day. With strong military strength, he can say no loudly in the economic field. Our navy's military exercises in the South China Sea of China have already marked a restricted area. Does the self-righteous American army dare to really take a step forward? The poor cat bet he didn't dare, because they didn't have the guts.

For a country like Iraq, it is easy for Americans to take Saddam Hussein by using the domestic opposition, so they can take photos with the robbed gold without scruple. However, Americans, who have always bullied the small with the big, met a nail in front of China this time. They are both afraid and angry about the listing of China oil futures, but they are helpless. They won't get anything cheap by launching a trade war. Besides, China's list this time is only a preliminary counter-measure. Seeing the list, Trump said hypocritically: I don't want to fight a trade war, just want to narrow the trade deficit with China. Well, it's up to you whether to start a trade war or not.