What attitude should South China take if there is a war between Korea and North Korea?

First of all, China will make it clear that once China's sovereignty and territory are violated, China will make them pay for it.

In the Korean War, Japan, the United States and South Korea were on the same team, so should China, Russia and North Korea.

But both China and North Korea love peace very much.

Recently, the military conflict between South Korea and North Korea has become a hot topic. What is the motive behind this conflict? Will armed conflict escalate into war? How will it affect China and Northeast Asia? How should China respond to this crisis?

Around these issues, I would like to talk about my superficial views here in order to communicate with my friends. If there are fallacies and childishness, please don't laugh at generous people.

Now, let's get down to business.

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Needless to say, the motive behind this conflict. The United States has two reasons: one is that it has long been dissatisfied with North Korea, and the other is that it wants to contain China. As for North Korea, there are several sayings: pass on the hairy belly of the failed currency reform, pave the way for Brother Xiaojin to come to power, and rip him off when he hit South Korea twice to make him short of money. Since World War II, Richard Moore has always wanted to get rid of its status as an economic power and a political power. If you fight with North Korea, you may be able to get rid of the shackles of the Treaty of Versailles like Germany after World War I ... This is very important for Kogoro, who has a strong national pride. Coupled with the Diaoyu Islands dispute with China and the four northern Russian islands dispute, it wants to fight this battle.

The last people who want war are China and South Korea. We have worked hard to govern China for 30 years, and we have shown a trend of rejuvenation. What is most needed now is a peaceful and stable development environment. In ten years, we will rise to be a superpower. North Korea's fight is bound to have an impact on us. Once the war breaks out, it is likely to get out of hand. 30 years of achievements into the second Korean War, we will definitely not do it; But if North Korea is destroyed, it will not only be under the pressure of NATO's westward expansion, but more directly, it will lose its bargaining chip with the American boss. The Republic of Korea doesn't want to go to war, and they can't afford to lose. If Seoul (former Seoul) was annihilated by artillery, there would be no place to cry. It is impossible for them to invent a developed Korea again. As for Vienna, they have long been in line with China's interests and do not want to see war. Especially don't want to see Richard Moore bigger. But then again, once the incident happens, they will also get a little benefit in geography, energy and diplomatic importance. Therefore, they should be cautious about the situation.

So, who really wants to fight this war? Everyone knows it's America, because his father is Li Gang. The reason why I dare not fight is because I am afraid of North Korea's nuclear weapons. Losing one or two aircraft carriers or even a fleet is nothing, but if we attack its overseas military bases or Japan and South Korea at once, it will not work. But if we can be sure that North Korea has no nuclear weapons, then the United States should start. Destroy the evil country in their eyes (this country is becoming more and more dangerous, and the possibility of making a nuclear bomb is increasing), and at the same time push the power directly to the door of China. Especially in the context of China's rapid growth, it is even more important to suppress the development momentum of China in order to keep the rice bowl.

So does North Korea have nuclear weapons? I'm afraid it's hard for the United States to be sure. Although the CIA is awesome, North Korea's political system makes it difficult for American spies to spy on core secrets. In this case, creating conflicts is the best way to spy out the truth and reality. American think tanks will make accurate judgments based on North Korea's reaction. Therefore, the real purpose of this joint military exercise is not to shock anyone, but to see the reality of North Korea clearly. As for China's reaction, we don't need to predict, and we certainly won't send troops. Therefore, we saw that in the last Yellow Sea military exercise, under the strong posture of China, the United States did not bring the aircraft carrier in; This time, I drove to the door of China without hesitation. Because the purposes of the two actions are different, China's reaction is predictable. In this way, this military exercise seems to be a prelude to the war. Once North Korea gives in, the United States will crack down.

General Kim Jong Il has been fighting against imperialism all his life, and he can clearly see the thoughts of American imperialism. So, we wisely made a great decision to fight resolutely and never give in, and showed 2000 centrifuges to the outside world. Is to tell Americans that we have nuclear capabilities. Although we will lose the conventional war, you can only get a larger foe.

This move is really clever, but Americans are not vegetarians and really want to fight this war. So they will spy again and have a larger military exercise. However, after all, they were not sure about brother Jin's cards, and for the sake of prudence, they wisely moved the acting sea to the east. Large scale and long distance. This is equivalent to putting a smoke bomb on North Korea: on the one hand, it makes North Korea feel that the Coalition forces are preparing for a big war, on the other hand, it can prevent North Korea from overreacting. At this time, if North Korea makes a slight fool of itself, the United States will be determined to use force. So, this time, everyone learned a trick from Chairman Mao to shell Jinmen. America is a smart nation. Every time, they will learn something from the contest with their opponents.

The great Kim Jong Il has rich experience in anti-imperialist struggle and can naturally see through the intentions of Americans. Therefore, in the next round of struggle, we will still adhere to the heroic posture of the red flag.

What should the United States do at this time?

There are too many smoke bombs in North Korea, which is unclear. Well, I can judge indirectly from China's reaction. As a result, mainstream western media began to attack China in succession: As the big brother of North Korea, how do you discipline your brothers? They know that China doesn't want war, let alone fighting for North Korea. However, from the degree of China's restraint on North Korea, we can judge whether North Korea has nuclear weapons.

China's open policy has nurtured generations of strategies. Of course, everyone will not be fooled by this move. Therefore, we told them that we are not the suzerain of North Korea, but long-term friendly brothers. We can only persuade, not stop. This is also a smoke bomb. You, America, don't try to get information from me. With the wisdom of policy makers in China, it is impossible for the United States to get exact information from this way. What's more, brother Jin has the real thing, and he doesn't necessarily tell China.

In this case, what should the United States do?

We should look back at the root cause of American provocation. China competes with it for jobs in the world, hurting the feelings of the people on Wall Street, and this bad style must stop. As a result, the United States has been giving us a hard time in recent years. Moreover, it is an unsuccessful plan, and there are endless ideas (I really admire their group of think tanks). Far from it, it is obvious that these two years have created disputes in South Asia. However, because we have established numerous contacts with South Asian countries, this action of the United States has not received any practical results. However, the rice bowl must be guaranteed. Therefore, the United States must take stronger measures. The Korean-Korean crisis was planned under this background.

The United States can do this: go to war with North Korea, but control the intensity of the war to a level that does not pose a fatal threat to the current North Korean government (or, a series of continuous exercises are also "soft wars"). Even if North Korea does have an atomic bomb, it will not be used easily, because the result of use can only be destroyed. Therefore, the moment when he used nuclear weapons was before the collapse of the dynasty. This is an act of revenge. As long as he can maintain his own survival, even if it is only a corner of peace, or even become a county magistrate after surrender and maintain the independence of the small court, he will not use nuclear weapons. So the United States can wage a limited war against him. If so, it will be a great harm to China. If this war lasts for several years, China's maritime trade will be greatly affected. So we can see that the Philippines has stated that if war breaks out, it will help Japan and South Korea fight against North Korea. To put it bluntly, it is to expand the blockade of China from the northern part of the first island chain to the whole eastern Pacific region. These island monkeys are excellent, and all their losses will be paid by Uncle Sam. China's loss does not stop there. The war has begun, and we must secretly give blood transfusion to our Korean brothers. This is Jinshan Yinhai! So once war breaks out, China will bleed from two wounds: trade and aid.

But it's different for America. The world economy must be circular, right? Investors are afraid of doing business in China. Where will the money go? The United States is the biggest beneficiary. Moreover, this war is a war between South Korea and North Korea. North Korea has no ability to attack the United States, and China will not confront the United States directly. As for the cost of the war, Smecta and Kogoro will reimburse them, one out of necessity, and the other out of "national righteousness" (after all, Japan has thousands of years of oriental culture, and it still retains the Bushido spirit until World War II, which determines that their thoughts will not be pure materialism, and it is worthwhile to pay for "Yamato Zhongxing". What's more, from the perspective of practical interests, the war may also help it get rid of the shackles of decades. Moreover, the pillar industry of the United States, the arms industry, will also receive a large number of orders. Therefore, if there is a war, as long as nuclear weapons are not used, the United States will surely make a fortune again.

At this time, the Russian position became subtle. No matter from the geopolitical pattern, or from the aspects of economy and energy pipeline, its importance will be enhanced. However, he doesn't want North Korea to perish, otherwise, he will be squeezed by the East and the West, and he will lose a bargaining chip. Therefore, he probably wants to see this low-intensity war continue. The premise is to keep North Korea.

By this time, we can already see clearly that the United States and Japan really want to fight, China, South Korea and North Korea really don't want to fight, and Russia is watching the development of the situation and thinking about when to jump up. Therefore, this Korean-Korean conflict is very likely to evolve into a lasting local limited war. The decisive factor is whether the United States can determine that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons.

The best policy for China is, of course, to avoid war. Therefore, our first task is to make the United States doubt whether North Korea has nuclear weapons. The second is to make the United States want to know under what conditions North Korea will use nuclear weapons.

The second point is actually more important than the first one. Because it has been analyzed before, even if North Korea has nuclear weapons, it will only be used on the eve of extinction. Then, the United States may adopt such a strategy: even if North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, as long as I control the extent of the war, China can be effectively weakened without loss. If he does, we will be very depressed, because China has no father named Li Gang. Therefore, in order to restrain this kind of play by the United States, Americans must not understand the bottom line of North Korea's use of nuclear weapons. Although we said just now, this bottom line is clear, but the strong and the weak judge the situation differently. It is possible that the United States believes that there is no threat to the Kim family's right to exist, and North Korea has already felt the danger. As long as this bottom line is vague, Americans dare not take risks. Therefore, more smoke bombs should be put on this second question, which will also make the first question (whether North Korea has nuclear weapons) more vague.

Of course, the United States also has the means to control the war within a limited scope. It's okay. Just shoot North Korea twice. It's okay to have a rest.

So, what should China do at this time? Obviously, let the Korean brothers make things big and control them within a limited range. At this time, South Korea has long been fed up. They will come forward to negotiate with the leader.

However, this is only on the defensive. Smecta may not be able to control Sam. Therefore, China must find the weakness of the United States and rescue Zhao by besieging Wei. Using the American political system, his hawks can't stand the pressure from home. From the perspectives of economy, diplomacy and public opinion propaganda. Let the possible Korean War be regarded by voters as another Vietnam War, exert influence on different forces in the United States, and finally resolve his offensive from within the United States. Of course, this is what meat eaters do.

We are ordinary people and can only sit and watch the wind and cloud. Rich people go to the futures market to short. We poor people are waiting to drink the northwest wind.