What will happen in 2032? Why did Hawking let mankind escape from the earth?

Hawking said that there are several related factors for human beings to leave the earth, such as the continuous deterioration of the earth's environment, the impact of asteroids on the earth, and the war of mankind; For the first type, human beings have realized the impact of human activities on the earth's environment and are exploring a more reasonable development model; Second, the possibility of asteroids hitting the earth monitored by humans is very low at present, and there is no confirmed impact event in 2032; Third, human beings are not stupid enough to ignore human civilization. Generally speaking, humans don't need to escape from the earth in 2032, but judging from the development of human space science and technology, they can't escape even if they want to. They sent three or five hundred humans out at most, and finally died without supplies.

The so-called "human beings must escape from the earth in 2032" is a deceptive scientific rumor fabricated by Bian Xiao. In fact, the rumor was inspired by the asteroid Apophis with a diameter of 300 meters discovered by astronomers. When it was first discovered, astronomers estimated that it would hit the earth in 2029. Later, through further collection of its orbital data, the asteroid impact time was changed to 2036, and the impact probability was only one in 45,000. Hawking's biggest reason for urging mankind to leave the earth was that the earth's resources were gradually exhausted, and only by going to other planets could we have a chance to survive. ?

In addition, the asteroid 20 13TV 135 that may hit the earth in 2032 is much smaller than the asteroid that hit the earth 65 million years ago and led to the extinction of dinosaurs, so it is unlikely to lead to human extinction; And the probability is very low. Through more observation, the possibility may be significantly reduced or completely ruled out.

Hawking, as a physicist with scientific literacy, naturally won't urge mankind to leave the earth because of a specific small probability event. On the contrary, if there are enough small probability times and time, it will inevitably happen. Therefore, Hawking believes that the asteroid impact event will happen sooner or later.