Is the so-called "1 1% of GDP in the world in the late Qing Dynasty" reliable?

Especially in contemporary China, from the central government to towns and villages, the whole country is fighting for GDP, in order to increase it as happiness and reduce it as worry. Guarantee eight, guarantee seven, no matter how much, the fundamental indicator is GDP.

There is no doubt that GDP is the most useful and authoritative macroeconomic data for various economies in recent decades. It and its main derivative data-per capita GDP, have long been the most important and irreplaceable key indicators to measure the comprehensive national strength and development level of each economy, so that even ordinary people who are not interested in macroeconomics are mostly familiar with it. Although in recent years, in order to make up for some shortcomings and thoughtlessness of GDP, various economic organizations and research institutions have invented many evaluation and ranking methods for the development level of countries and regions, such as purchasing power parity index, social and human development index, environmental sustainable development index, people's happiness index and so on. So far, they have no authority to approach GDP, let alone replace it with GDP. Under the influence of this long-term practical environment, it is not only very normal, but also quite reasonable from a certain point of view.

In my opinion, there are three main reasons why GDP is so authoritative: First, it has a wide range of connotations. Theoretically, GDP can and should include all goods and services in an economic entity that will produce economic value with social exchange significance; Second, the data is the most objective, regardless of the factors of intentional fraud by statistical agencies. Even if there are often problems such as incomplete data collection, insufficient representativeness of sampling samples, or distorted exchange rates among currencies of various economies, the reliability and objectivity of GDP are still strong, or all other economic and social development indicators that rely on the subjective judgment of a few people or only pay attention to a certain aspect of human development are strong. Third, strong comparability. GDP can not only measure the development speed of each economy conveniently and intuitively, but also be used as the main core index of national economy in China and the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries. The GDP index system has unified the whole world, and any economy can easily measure its own gap based on GDP.

However, the problem of misunderstanding GDP often lies in this third article!

Everyone should have read Mr. Lao Guang's gossip GDP (what? You haven't seen it yet? ! Then what are you waiting for? Let's go and study. Well written! Really well written! On the bright side, many people usually don't understand, or at most only vaguely hear, which is indispensable for seriously and objectively comparing Chinese and foreign GDP data. It is conceivable that even now, after the announcement that it has basically been in line with the international (exactly, western) GDP statistics system, there are still huge differences between Chinese and foreign GDP statistics (for example, in the eyes of most China people, extremely powerful self-occupied houses must still be included in GDP), not to mention the past.

Finally, I have to turn over the intention of the article. Originally in the economic management edition, I have been diving, no one else. Some people know how to keep their mouths shut and keep their ears open when they don't understand. I drew this essay because I saw a scholar's eloquent preaching in theory: China's share of world GDP fell from the level of11%in the late Qing Dynasty to the level of1%in the world GDP. Sorry, this has just entered the historical category that I like to be on the defensive (although it is actually an economic history that I don't quite understand), so ... I dare to ask this and other netizens, since it is certain that China's GDP ranked first in the world at the end of the Qing Dynasty (in the last year, it should be the earliest change of the Boxer Rebellion in 1900). Where does this figure come from?

To tell the truth, I actually know the answer to the above question, and that is-no one knows!

It was not until after World War II that the statistical system of GDP began to gradually form and popularize in the world. Earlier, countries basically counted industrial and agricultural output values, rather than a GDP system that included a wider range of economic sectors, which was also the result of the country's gradual improvement of economic control. The so-called GDP historical data before each economy started its own statistics were derived by economists and historians according to their own understanding of the economic development process. According to the different materials that everyone depends on and values, the same data can vary from person to person. How to make a rigorous comparison between economies? Strict experts will only use these calculated data for basic analysis of historical situation, and will never be used to make a world GDP ranking table.

Converting the proportion of China's ancient world GDP in the same period (of course, it must be very high) is quite popular in recent years. Originally, this was just a stopgap measure taken by some foreign historians in the process of opposing western centralism in order to rediscover and better introduce the glory and greatness of ancient China to western readers. In fact, if you carefully read these people's original works, such as the famous Silver Capital, you will find that in fact, they only emphasized China's long-term leading position in creating material wealth. You are welcome to say that this original historical fact is completely correct and vulgarized. Now it seems that the bad influence of this kind of flicker is really not small.

In fact, it is meaningless to attempt to count GDP, whether in ancient times, which are far apart geographically, or in the farming and animal husbandry society that was not completely involved in the industrial revolution. First of all, there is not even the most basic benchmark value unit. How to compare? Pepper is worthless in the spice islands and more expensive than gold in Europe. Is Magulu a Gulf Emirate in the17th century? Japan is a big country of precious metals in history. One tael of gold can only be exchanged for three taels of silver for a long time, but at least twelve taels can be exchanged in China across the sea. How to calculate Japan's mining GDP?

Some people may say that by the end of the Qing Dynasty, silver, as the actual standard currency of China, had already formed a meaningful exchange rate with major international currencies. Yes, by the end of the Qing Dynasty, the difficulties in currency and exchange rate conversion could be overcome theoretically, but by the end of the Qing Dynasty, a slightly decent statistical investigation system of the basic situation of the country had never been established. For example, even after the Qing Dynasty listed never increasing taxes as the ancestral law, in theory, the main motive of hiding the real number of acres in the local area has been removed, and it has never been clear how many acres there are in the country, which is the most basic national data of a country. Population and land, the two most basic factors of production, are unknown. I don't think anyone can calculate even a roughly accurate GDP estimate.

That was the Republic of China, wouldn't it be better? Just as bad. 1932 The statistics of farmland in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Henan by the statistics department of Nanjing government are actually lower than that in the twenty-sixth year of Hongwu (1393)! As a result, when the results of the folk survey by Professor Bu Kai of Nanjing University were published in 1937, the National Bureau of Statistics revoked its own figures and took Mr. Bu Kai's survey data as the benchmark. However, Mr. Bukai's investigation is limited by human and material resources, and in most cases, it is only based on a few sampling samples, and some revisions have been made to the data of the original statistical bureau. As for the population statistics during the Republic of China, it was even more a joke, so that the population of China jumped from 450 million compatriots who were generally legendary before the founding of the People's Republic of China to more than 580 million after the 1953 census. Under this basic condition, where can we calculate the GDP of China at that time? And if the above inference is too troublesome, then from the simplest point of view, China's GDP in 2008 only accounted for a little more than 7% of the world, half higher than that in the late Qing Dynasty. I seem to have died in the Qing Dynasty.

When it comes to the reasons for the demise of the Qing Dynasty, we should criticize that Montana again. Although it is no longer necessary to praise or criticize the present generation, and it is no longer necessary to admire the rule of three generations, the way to self-improvement is to think about what the predecessors have not thought about and express the views that the predecessors have not said, but are brand-new historical joints. Don't open your mouth when you are tempted. Traditionally, the direct fuse of the collapse of the Manchu Dynasty was: the delay of constitutionalism, and the royal cabinet lost the last expectation of the people all over the world; The new army (except Beiyang army) was fully infiltrated by the revolutionary party; The direct robbery of railway countries crushed the last straw. Of course, it can be said that the reason lies in the fiscal expansion in recent ten years. But even if you don't make a long speech, you should at least write a few strokes. For example, if the finance did not expand in the late Qing Dynasty, it would naturally be impossible to raise new troops and plan new troops in 36 towns, and Yuan's small station training would be impossible. So relying on the loyal green camp garrison, I beat the revolutionaries out of the water year after year, and I, the Qing emperor, will never waver.

In fact, I also know that whether the GDP in the late Qing Dynasty accounted for 1 1% of the world, or the fiscal expansion in the last decade directly ruined the Qing Dynasty, it was actually just the introduction of this Canadian, which led to the topic of opposing arbitrary tax increases, the comparison between property tax and Likin, and his concern and thinking about the general direction and strategy of China's future development. To tell the truth, I agree with the first half of the topic itself, and as far as the property tax is concerned, at this stage, according to the rumored possible collection method, I occasionally feel that there is a problem (but I firmly oppose demonizing all tax increases first, which is neo-liberal paranoia and does not conform to the real situation in history at all). In the second half of the topic, whether you agree or not, you are worried about your husband when you live in a temple, and you are worried about your own people when you are far away. This awareness of taking the world as its own responsibility deserves praise and learning.

However, I am still firmly opposed to this topic introduction technique. I use the compiled historical facts as an introduction to facilitate the introduction of my ideal topic. This kind of drama is used too much by the Southern School and the Persimmon Oil Party, and the knowledgeable people are dismissive. How to be effective? In a word, in the long run, this will only make more people doubt the reliability of the advocated views, and then doubt the basic reliability of all the views of supporters. The so-called loss outweighs the gain, which is exactly the case.