20 15 will there be a bull market in China stock market?

In the long run, the bull market can be expected.

From the policy point of view, firstly, after 20 15, China's reform will enter a deep-water period, and some reforms, such as people's livelihood policy and fiscal and taxation policy reform, will be immediate. The expected improvement of social security in the future and the current increase of people's livelihood expenditure will increase China people's consumption expenditure on medical care and old-age care. This is the consumption dividend and industrial dividend released by the reform.

Second, the market-oriented reform of factor prices may be further promoted next year, so as to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises and optimize the efficiency of resource allocation. As a result, loss-making enterprises or projects with very low market returns may face liquidation pressure. These clearances will make effective resources such as labor and capital leave inefficient enterprises or projects for better allocation, improve the quality of current credit assets, and promote the recovery of asset returns.

Third, the government has cancelled many lists of administrative examination and approval this year. I think it is very likely that a list of government powers will be issued next year, which is to further decentralize the power of administrative examination and approval, reduce government intervention in some areas, and improve government management efficiency. With the shrinking of the whole power list, the system efficiency should be improved next year.

From a fundamental point of view, the current downward trend of economic growth is irreversible, because the surplus of manufacturing industry has not been completely cleared, and the process of clearing will continue for some time next year, but while the proportion of manufacturing industry in the national economy is declining, the proportion of service industry, especially producer service industry, will continue to rise. By the fourth quarter of this year, I personally estimate that the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy has reached 48%-49%, and it may exceed 50% next year. Through structural adjustment or structural improvement, emerging industries in manufacturing, such as smart home appliances, medical and health care industries, have good growth. Industries with overcapacity will continue to slump, such as coal and non-ferrous metals. It is bad news for the coal industry, whether from the perspective of environmental protection or capacity reduction in China. The falling prices of commodities and industrial metals are also a blow to domestic upstream enterprises and mining industries that produce raw materials. Therefore, these upstream enterprises will face two dilemmas next year. First, overcapacity, including the cold in the coal industry, the substitution of clean energy and the pressure of energy structure adjustment; Second, the downward trend of international commodity prices forms pressure through input price transmission.