A joke of a business tycoon.

On the morning of September 14, Beijing time, American chip giant NVIDIA and Arm, a subsidiary of Japanese Softbank Group, respectively issued statements, announcing that NVIDIA would acquire Arm for 40 billion US dollars (about 273.32 billion RMB). The transaction is expected to be completed within 18 months and requires regulatory approval from the UK, China, the EU and the US.

After the transaction is completed, NVIDIA will not only maintain Arm's development licensing model and global customer neutrality, but also apply its technology to products authorized by Arm. At the same time, Arm headquarters will still be located in Cambridge. NVIDIA will also issue $6543.80+$500 million equity to Arm employees, which, if completed, will be the largest merger in the history of the semiconductor industry.

Round and round, the game table is still the son, but this time the winner is no longer him.

Standing in 2020, looking back at the first half of Sun Zhengyi's life, he "hung" all the way down like a handsome man.

My son's ancestors came from China. During the war-torn Southern and Northern Dynasties, his ancestors migrated from Putian, Fujian to the Korean Peninsula, and his grandfather Sun Zhongqing migrated from the Korean Peninsula (now near Daegu, South Korea) to Kyushu, Japan, at the age of 18.

1957, Masayoshi son was born in Japan. In that era when immigrants were discriminated against everywhere, his father Sun Sanxian worked hard from the bottom of society and had a small career, which inspired Sun Zhengyi.

In addition to his father's teaching, looking at Sun Zhengyi's growth stage, there are three important turning points, which also paved the way for his later important life.

The first turning point Sun Zhengyi encountered was at 197 1. /kloc-When he was 0/4 years old, Masayoshi Son came into contact with the first book that changed his life, Jewish Business. The author of this book Fujita is a Japanese business tycoon. As the first person who creatively introduced McDonald's to Japan, Fujita is known as "the father of McDonald's in Japan".

Fujita's Jewish Commercial Law

This book encourages the Japanese to get rid of the shameful traditional consciousness of collecting money. Through this book, Masayoshi Son realized that accumulating wealth is a positive and good thing. Inspired by reading, Masayoshi Son decided to get to know the writer himself. He called the author countless times, but his assistant refused.

Later, this 14-year-old young man simply flew to Tokyo to meet the father of McDonald's in Japan. After seeing the idol, Sun Zhengyi got a 15 minute communication opportunity and asked the other party a question, "What direction should he develop in the future?"

Fujita's suggestion is simple and crisp: learn English well and get more contact with computers.

Sun Zhengyi's second turning point was in 1972. /kloc-At the age of 0/5, Masayoshi Son read Ryotaro Shiba's book "The Dragon Comes".

Ryotaro Shiba's novel: The Dragon Horse is Coming.

Ryoma Sakamoto, the hero, is a Japanese legend who lived in the late Edo period and was one of the founders of the Meiji Restoration and the obscene restoration movement.

Sakamoto Ryoma had a great influence on Masayoshi Son. Masayoshi Son has said many times, "The person I admire most is Ryoma Sakamoto, and my motto is Ryoma Sakamoto's words. Life should aim high and stride forward."

The direct motivation for studying in the United States a few years later is this spirit of dragon and horse. Even the two thick lines in Softbank logo are directly taken from the battle flag of Sakamoto Dragon and Horse.

The third turning point was in 1973, 16-year-old senior one student Sun Zhengyi, who took advantage of the summer vacation to attend a four-week short-term summer camp training class in the United States for the first time, mainly to learn English. At that time, the training course was taught in the classroom of the University of California, Berkeley.

In the United States, this is also the first time that Masayoshi Son really opened his eyes. Later, Sun Zhengyi said in his speech, "There are several turning points in my life, and studying in the United States is almost the most important one. The free and unrestrained folk customs, creativity, fairness, openness, partnership spirit and advanced technology in the United States have deeply attracted me. "

After returning to Japan, Masayoshi Son couldn't wait. He immediately submitted his application for dropping out of school and decided to go to America. In fact, the United States did bring him the primitive accumulation of wealth. Sun Zhengyi said in an interview, "Without America, there would be no Sun Zhengyi."

The six-year study experience in the United States is a colorful chapter in Sun Zhengyi's life. He asked the professor to work for him, returned to Japan to establish Softbank and invested in Yahoo, the first company. Masayoshi son keeps writing his own legendary stories.

Yuval harari mentioned in his best-selling book "A Brief History Today" that human beings can conquer the world because they have the ability to create and believe fictional stories. Son obviously belongs to this category, and there is also a crazy gambler in the world.

In less than a year, Softbank has occupied 40% of the Japanese software market. By 1989, Softbank's market share has become 85%. By 1994, Softbank was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, raising14 billion US dollars, and Sun Zhengyi's worth also rose, reaching10 billion US dollars.

With money, it coincides with a magnificent investment boom in the United States. At that time, Netscape showed everyone that trading companies could also make money. As a result,19951/year, Yahoo was formally established less than a year ago, with a team of only a dozen people. After seeing the potential of Yang Zhiyuan, the young founder, Son decided to inject $2 million into him.

This investment brought huge profits to Sun Zhengyi. Later, Yahoo's market value was as high as 1000 billion US dollars, and Softbank, which held 33% of the shares, made a profit of 300 times in this investment, making Son the richest man in the world for three consecutive days.

The story of Sun Zhengyi's investment in Alibaba is the most classic case in the history of global venture capital.

The widely circulated version is: In 2000, about 10 minutes after the first meeting, Sun Zhengyi decided to invest 20 million US dollars in Alibaba, which was just established less than one year ago.

Four years later, shortly after Alibaba launched the Taobao platform, Softbank continued to increase its investment. At that time, Ali raised a total of $82 million, of which Softbank contributed $60 million. Through two investments, Softbank exchanged 80 million dollars for about 30% of Ali shares. In 20 14, when Ali was listed on NYSE, the value of Ali stock held by Softbank increased by about 2900 times.

In 20 16, Sun Zhengyi acquired ARM for 32 billion yuan, which was once again regarded as the most sensational acquisition of that year.

As the world's largest supplier of chip ip (intellectual property), Arm's CPU architecture supports almost 90% of the world's mobile phone chips, including Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, MediaTek, Huawei and other chip and smart phone giants have long relied on Arm. Son vowed to gamble with ARM on "the biggest paradigm shift in human history".

Masayoshi son is obviously bent on breaking the record. From 2065438 to September 2006, Sun Zhengyi flew to Saudi Arabia with Softbank team to raise10 billion US dollars, the largest private equity fund in human history.

Facing Mohammed, the head of Saudi public investment fund and deputy crown prince, Sun Zhengyi delivered a speech, "I will give you a gift worth 1 trillion dollars. You invested 1 0 billion dollars, and I will pay you back1trillion dollars. " After the exhibition, Mohammed promised to donate $45 billion.

But this $45 billion also comes at a price. Among them, 28 billion is debt financing, and debt means capital preservation. Softbank needs to pay 7% interest every year. In order to make up the most luxurious 1000 billion fund in history, Softbank turned ARM into a bet.

After the establishment of the $0/000 billion Vision Fund, various media praised Sun Zhengyi as the next great Buffett. Masayoshi son is also preparing to fight another big battle, voting for several Alibaba's, but the plan can't keep up with the changes. Even the more capable Masayoshi Son has to admit the changeable fate.

03

"Myth is not there" Masayoshi Son

Since the launch of 1000 billion Vision Fund, Masayoshi Son has become more and more headache, and the market's evaluation of it has become more and more polarized.

In 20 17, Sun Zhengyi invested in Uber, with a pre-listing valuation of12 billion USD. However, Uber broke on the first day of listing. At the end of last year, its market value was less than $53.9 billion, only half of that before listing.

In the same year, Masayoshi Son took a fancy to WeWork again. At the peak of 20 19, WeWork was valued at $47 billion. However, in 20 19, Wework cancelled the IPO voluntarily, and the valuation was halved.

On February 10, 2020, Brandless, a well-known American e-commerce platform, officially announced its closure, which was the first death project since the establishment of Softbank Vision Fund.

Then at the end of March, another American star startup, OneWeb, officially announced its application for bankruptcy protection, and has laid off about 85% of its employees. Softbank, with a total investment of $2 billion, is its largest financial owner.

A few months later, the German payment giant Wirecard declared bankruptcy. Wirecard, founded in 1999, was once regarded as Alipay in Europe, and Sun Zhengyi spared no effort to invest more than 7 billion yuan. The stock price plunged 90% in a week. Because of financial fraud, Softbank once again deeply felt the taste of double whammy.

According to public information, Wirecard started from online casinos and pornographic websites. After the acquisition of a bank in 2006, it developed into a service provider providing all-round payment services. Wirecard's revenue in 2065438+08 exceeded 2 billion euros, and its market value once surpassed Deutsche Bank to reach 24.6 billion euros.

In May 2020, before and after Softbank released its 20 19 annual report, due to the decline in performance, the controversy over Softbank in the industry almost reached its peak. The operating loss in 20 19 reached 1.365 trillion yen, which was the first loss in Softbank 15 and the most serious loss since the company was established.

Or its prospect fund causes the company's capital deficit. The financial report shows that the operating loss of Vision Fund in 20 19 years reached 1.87 trillion yen (about 175 billion US dollars), which Softbank said was mainly due to the sharp decline in the fair value of Uber, WeWork and their three affiliated companies.

Due to successive setbacks in investment projects, investors began to worry that the portfolio of Vision Fund was full of more companies in trouble, and their willingness to contribute to Vision II Fund was greatly reduced. Sun Zhengyi once admitted that in the past year, the valuation of 26 out of 88 companies rose and 47 fell, among which about 15 companies will go bankrupt.

Masayoshi son's approach is, first, tighten his belt, freeze the second phase investment of Vision Fund, and temporarily stop new investment; At the same time, the Group will operate its business conservatively and use the funds for repurchase and debt reduction.

From June, 5438 to early October, 2020 10, the Vision Fund under Softbank Group gave up its investment in three start-up companies, namely Honor, Seismology and Creator, which also reflected that the investment madman Sun Zhengyi began to be cautious.

The second is to admit your mistakes frankly.

The invested enterprises have accidents. Sun Zhengyi reflected on his mistakes at the shareholders' meeting on June 25th, and announced his withdrawal from Ali's board of directors, which will take effect from now on.

At this conference, Sun Zhengyi rarely reflected on ——WeWork, the most failed investment case last year. "The main responsibility lies with me. This investment was opposed internally from the beginning, and I suppressed the opposition. I will accept the punishment of salary reduction. I told the company staff that it doesn't matter whether it is 65.438+0 billion yen or 200 million yen, even if it is zero reward. "

On June 25th, at the annual general meeting of shareholders of Softbank Group, Masayoshi Son announced that he would withdraw from the board of directors of Alibaba Group from now on. On the same day, Ma Yun resigned as a director of Softbank.

The third is to sell assets to pay off debts.

Sun Zhengyi has been selling Ali shares since the establishment of Voluntary Scene Fund. Softbank's shareholding in Ali is 34.4% in 20 15 years, 32% in 20 16 years, 29.07% in 20 17 years, 28.8% in 20 19 years, with only 25.5% left.

Arm, a chip ip giant acquired by Softbank for $32 billion four years ago, has now been put on the shelves of Softbank. Softbank decided to sell some or all of the shares of Arm.

In addition, the second-phase financing of Softbank, which was already in turmoil, has also been increasingly blocked. As a result, Sun Zhengyi began to launch a large-scale asset sale plan of up to 4.5 trillion yen (about 300 billion yuan). As of August 3, Softbank has sold assets worth 4.3 trillion yen and completed 95% of the plan to sell assets worth 4.5 trillion yen.

But selling assets is not a long-term solution after all. Softbank also took out some money and leveraged stocks, hoping to counterattack.

For example, not long ago, Softbank Vision Fund began to sweep goods in US stocks, and was even called Nasdaq Whale by foreign media. During the epidemic, it soared, and the stock prices of Uber, Slack and other companies rebounded in April-June, which made Sun Zhengyi taste the sweetness. The data shows that the net profit of Softbank Vision Fund in the first fiscal quarter reached 654.38+029.6 billion yen (about 654.38+022 billion US dollars). However, the good times did not last long and were targeted by market makers on Wall Street. Through some methods, the US stock market plummeted on September 4th, and Softbank was beaten again.

/kloc-in September of 0/4, the news broke that Softbank Group was accelerating the privatization acquisition negotiations due to fundamental changes in its long-term business strategy. Although foreign media reported that there was strong opposition to MBO within Softbank, the move was supported by Elliott Management, an American radical investment institution (holding a large stake in Softbank), and Mubadala, a sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi.

The current capital valuation of Softbank Group is11500 million US dollars, which is seriously lower than the equity assets of other technology companies held by Softbank Group. The LP in the Middle East has obviously long been dissatisfied with him.

For example, at the 20 19 Saudi Arabia Future Investment Initiative Conference, Masayoshi Son gave an impassioned speech on the stage, but almost no one was in the audience. Such a lonely reality is far from the high spirits when the Vision Fund was established, only three years apart.

In 2000, CCTV Dialogue once asked Sun Zhengyi, "The Internet used to be the leader in various industries, but in less than a year, many investors' attitudes towards it have changed. what do you think? "

The son calmly replied, "There are always ups and downs in the story. These ups and downs are not uncommon for the stock market. "

Sun Zhengyi believes that through investment and mergers and acquisitions, Softbank Group can successfully connect leading companies in various fields with capital means. These companies form a consortium under a common vision, grow together, evolve and grow, and play a synergistic role.

Therefore, Masayoshi Son invented a new enterprise form for Softbank Group, and he created many concepts to explain this concept, such as "strategic collaborative group" and "cluster No". 1 ",or better understood as" Berkshire Hathaway in science and technology ",the 100 billion vision fund was born under this background. Even if the plan sounds ridiculous, Son can always use it.

Looking back at Sun Zhengyi's investment layout now, his aggressive investment strategies in Yahoo, Alibaba and Didi in 2000 and 20 10 have become a myth because of catching up with the early popularization of the Internet and mobile Internet. As investors say, "You can't make a mistake with your eyes closed when you catch up with the golden age."

However, at the moment when the increment gradually becomes the stock, the track is not as big as before, and the infrastructure "pits" in various fields are occupied by giants, and the number of players in sub-categories begins to increase. Since it is a market segment, it also means that the ceiling is predictable, and there are fewer and fewer companies suitable for VC crazy betting.

If there is a problem with internal governance, there will be a struggle. The reason is that the capital market is immature and all kinds of laws and regulations are not perfect. From a historical point of view, the failure or success of Sun Zhengyi seems to be an accident accompanied by the factors of the times.

However, whether you are a genius or a madman, you should always be in awe of the market, capital and industry, because time will eventually give the answer. The quality of this answer depends entirely on Sun Zhengyi.