Pig slogan

Pork plays an indispensable role in people's daily life, and it also occupies an important position in our traditional cuisine in China. According to the data of USDA, the global pork consumption is 20112.58 million tons, among which the consumption of China people reaches 561200,000 tons, accounting for nearly half of the global pork consumption. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that China is a veritable pork consuming country.

So there is a saying that the landlord has raised the rent for the tenant, but the tenant is not convinced and the house price has not risen. How can you raise my rent? The landlord replied, because I like to eat pork.

Everyone must know that the price of pork has gone up. As of August 28th, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities was 53.5 yuan per kilogram, up nearly 50% year-on-year. For the Han people who like to eat pork, the rise in pork prices has made many people feel terrible. Pork is related to three meals a day, so many people hope that the price of pork will drop a little one day.

Tao Yishan, chairman of Tang Renshen, a big pig producer, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly that he was pessimistic about the price of pigs, and the price of meat might drop to four or five yuan by 2022, because all the major pig-raising enterprises in China are expanding the scale of pigs, and the scale of pigs under construction or to be built will reach 265,438+billion, but the consumption scale of pork in China is only 650 million. Overcapacity will lead to a decline in prices.

Supply and demand determine the price. There seems to be some truth in the saying of raising pigs.

Not to mention five yuan a catty, if ordinary people can really eat 10 yuan a catty of pork, this expert is really the gospel of ordinary people! However, more people have different opinions.

Some netizens think he must consider his own interests. What he meant by this sentence was that everyone should stop raising pigs and not compete with big pig farmers for business. As long as pigs are still in the hands of big farms, it is difficult for pork to fall in price. There are five reasons why pork prices are hard to fall.

First of all, under the requirement of environmental protection, the pig farm was shut down.

Pingjiang Bay Pig Farm was once a national standardized pig breeding base, which witnessed the difficulties of domestic pig breeding, but it was closed on 20 18. This pig farm, which covers an area of 765,438+0 mu with an annual output of 43,000 pigs, was ordered to close due to serious damage to the ecological environment and made way for ecological construction in the county.

Secondly, pig breeds are "stuck in the neck" by the United States.

On September 2nd, Liu Yonghao, chairman of New Hope Group, said that many original pigs are imported now, and this pattern needs to be changed urgently. There is a proper term in the pig industry called feed-meat ratio. How much feed does a pig need to eat to grow a kilogram of meat? At present, the feed-meat ratio of foreign breeding pigs, which occupies the mainstream market in China, is about 2~3: 1, while the feed-meat ratio of domestic pork is as high as 6: 1. Foreign pigs consume less feed and have a short feeding time. If you were a farmer, what would you choose?

The third is the influence of African swine fever.

What big farmers fear most is plague. 2018 On August 3rd, the first African swine fever epidemic in Shenyang, Liaoning Province completely announced the start of a new pig cycle. African swine fever exploded like an atomic bomb in Liaoning Province around Jilin Province.

Up to July 20 19, there were 143 cases of African swine fever in * * China, and1/60,000 pigs were culled. Faced with this situation, pigs are closed throughout the three northeastern provinces. Only one year later, the price of pork and the profit of raising pigs in Qi Fei (that is, the hog sector) caused the share prices of some large aquaculture companies to soar.

Nature makes people, just like that sentence:

"Today is cruel, tomorrow is even more cruel, and the day after tomorrow will be beautiful, but most people will die tomorrow night."

Fourth, the breeding cost is not low.

I asked several old farmers around me, why not raise pigs to make money now that pork prices are so good? The answer is that the investment is too large. One or two thousand piglets, corn feed is too expensive for pigs to eat, and there is still a gap between the price of pigs collected and the price of pork in the vegetable market, while the prices of corn and soybean meal needed for pig feed have been firm. Take corn as an example, the price of corn has risen from last year's per ton 1.85 yuan to 2050 yuan. In terms of feed cost, our feed price is also higher than that of the United States.

In China, more than 60% of transformed protein in feed protein is provided by soybean meal, and more than 95% of soybean meal output is obtained by squeezing imported soybeans. At present, feed prices are still bullish.

The fifth is large-scale farming.

The requirement of environmental protection has caused many rural free-range farmers to withdraw from pig farming, and the popularity of large-scale farming has also caused a large number of retail investors to withdraw, which has not changed the situation of high proportion of retail farming and shortage of pork supply in China.

In addition to these five reasons, the rise in pork prices is also related to the special market in 2020. In September, major schools started school in an all-round way, canteens needed a lot of pork, government agencies and institutions also officially went to work, restaurants and restaurants also resumed work normally, and a lot of pork was needed. Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Spring Festival and other holidays are coming soon. The shortage of pork may not change in the short term.

However, there is also some good news that makes us feel a little relieved. Due to the large pork supply market of modern farms and the rich profits of raising pigs, some farmers have also been attracted to the market. On September 2nd, the reserve frozen pork was put into auction, with a bid turnover of 20,000 tons. This is the 30th batch of reserve frozen pork released this year, and the cumulative release will reach 540,000 tons.

Ali, Netease, JD.COM, Evergrande, Country Garden, Vanke, etc. have also started to set foot in the pig raising business, empowering the pig raising industry with science and technology, and Mu Yuan, a large domestic pig raising enterprise, is also stepping up the research and development of varieties.

We have reason to expect everything to develop in a better direction.