Western media: After the Ukrainian army has successively gained battlefield advantages, it will be difficult to launch continuous counterattacks

The US "Defense News" website stated on the 22nd that Ukrainian President Zelensky recently gave a speech in which he rejected the idea of ??a short-term truce with Russia and warned NATO to "not give Russia a chance to breathe." However, NATO stated that the nine-month-long conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused the weapons and ammunition stocks of some NATO countries to drop to dangerous levels, and replenishing the stocks cannot be completed in a short time. General Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said: "When you continue to provide ammunition to Ukraine, you must evaluate the risks you take for this." Lithuanian Defense Minister Anusauskas said on the 21st, "The relationship between air defense issues To ensure the security of the entire region, Lithuania intends to speed up the purchase of additional medium-range air defense systems and at the same time refuses to transfer PZH2000 self-propelled howitzers and NASAMS air defense missiles to Ukraine.”

The US “Washington Post” stated that although Ukraine will do so this fall. The continuous offensives have left a deep impression on the world: they successively recaptured the northeastern area of ????Kharkov, and then forced Russia to embarrassingly withdraw its troops from the Kherson area, but the Ukrainian army now faces additional obstacles. First of all, after a series of withdrawals, the Russian army has relied on geographical advantages to stabilize its defense line. In eastern Ukraine, the Russian army has built multiple layers of defense lines. Andrei, a soldier of the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade fighting in the Lugansk area, said in an interview that the Russian army has built three lines of defense, and "they are waiting for the Ukrainian army to attack behind the line of defense." Intelligence from the British Ministry of Defense also supports this statement: The Russian army is digging new trenches near Crimea. They are about 60 kilometers away from the existing front line, indicating that the Russian army is preparing for the further advancement of the Ukrainian army. At the same time, many soldiers with rich experience appeared among the newly mobilized units of the Russian army. The report mentioned that the Russian army voluntarily withdrew its elite troops from the Kherson area, and they may appear elsewhere and become "terrible enemies."

The US media also mentioned that if the Ukrainian army wants to launch a new offensive in the direction of Kherson, it will have the same problem as the Russian army faced at the beginning - it needs to cross the Dnieper River. According to reports, the river is still about 1/3 mile wide at its narrowest point, which means that the Ukrainian army must build pontoons to pass, but these pontoons take time to transport and install, and can be easily destroyed.

In addition, the current muddy environment makes maneuvering in the wild particularly difficult. "Ukraine, like Russia, is struggling with tight ammunition supplies and exhausted soldiers." The Russian army’s ongoing bombing of key infrastructure in Ukraine has also affected the Ukrainian army’s combat capabilities. Czech military expert Petrash said that Ukraine has spent too many weapons and supplies in its counterattack in recent months and is waiting for assistance from the United States and Europe. Mason Clark, a senior analyst at the U.S. Institute of War Studies, said that combined with these factors, Kiev may have to wait until January or February next year before launching another large-scale offensive.

It is worth noting that these reports by the US media echo the recent public statements of Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Mark Milley said the current time "may be ripe" for a negotiated settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He said the front line from Kharkiv to Kherson was "beginning to stabilize" and that in the long term it would be "unrealistic" for Ukraine to fully recapture the lands occupied by Moscow. “Negotiating when you are at an advantage and your opponent is at a disadvantage may lead to a political solution.” But his suggestion was strongly opposed by Ukraine.

Extended reading:

Media: Zelensky’s negotiation conditions almost require Russia to surrender unconditionally

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Wang Yiwei/Text On November 22, 2022, the war between Russia and Ukraine has progressed to its 272nd day.

In recent times, the biggest highlight of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that Russia has frequently sent signals for peace talks, and the United States and other Western countries have also persuaded Ukraine to come to the negotiating table.

Faced with the pressure to promote talks, Ukraine is obviously resisting. President Zelenskiy reported extremely high standards for negotiation conditions, which almost required Russia to surrender unconditionally. The Ukrainian military has taken a tougher stance, rejecting all negotiation plans.

Even according to a report by the British media Sky News on November 19, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Gavrilov predicted that the Ukrainian army may retake the Crimean Peninsula before Christmas and The battle will end in early 2023. Russian media reported that there are many Ukrainian officials who hold similar views.

To be fair, Gavrilov's view is more like a propaganda strategy to boost people's morale, and its military feasibility is very low. Because the current Ukrainian army is still concentrated on the right bank of the Dnieper River, across the river from the Crimean Peninsula, across most of the Kherson Oblast controlled by the Russian army, and between the Kherson Oblast and the Crimean Peninsula , only connected by land less than 10 kilometers wide. It is really difficult for the Ukrainian army to cross the river, cross the Kherson Oblast, and capture Crimea through an area of ??less than 10 kilometers.

On the contrary, whether the Russian army will launch a new round of winter offensive has become a suspense.

The author concluded that there are several factors that may prompt the Russian army to launch high-intensity offensive operations in the Donbas region.

First, use fighting to promote talks.

It should be pointed out that negotiation is a strategy that Russia has never given up. Shortly after the special military operation began on February 24, Russia and Ukraine began negotiations, then intermittently, and then completely discontinued. After incorporating the four states of Wudong and Wunan into its territory through referendums, Russia sent a clearer signal for negotiation. Sending a new round of battlefield offensive to really inflict pain on Ukraine is one of the ways to force Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Second, 300,000 troops are gradually in place, weapons and equipment are guaranteed to follow up, and the material and personnel foundations for launching a winter offensive are in place.

Russia issued a partial mobilization order on September 21, and it has been two months since then. Although the mobilization order triggered protests in some domestic cities, it overall went smoothly, with 300,000 troops completing training and entering the battlefield.

In addition, with the supervision of high-level Russian officials and the implementation of relevant measures, Russian military industrial enterprises are working hard to produce various weapons and equipment. Not long ago, Medvedev, former President of Russia and current Vice Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, inspected the Ural Rolling Stock Factory. Videos exposed on social media showed that the tank production line of this military factory was operating at full capacity.

The latest news also shows that all Russian missile units have been equipped with modern "Iskander-M" missile systems. Russia also plans to start mass production of three new drones in December.

This is the biggest difference between Russia and Ukraine. Russia has hematopoietic function to maintain the operation of its war machine, while Ukraine mainly relies on external blood transfusions.

Third, in order to achieve the established goals of the special military operation.

As the saying goes, teachers are famous. The key reason why Russia launched a special military operation was that the two states in the Donbas region were seeking independence and were suppressed by Ukraine. Russia sent troops to protect the rights and interests of Russians in the region. After more than nine months of war, most of the Luhansk Oblast in the Donbas region was occupied by Russian troops, while only half of the Donetsk Oblast was occupied. If the Russian army goes all out to occupy all the land in the two Donbas states, it will be regarded as completing the goal of the special military operation.

To sum up, there is a possibility that Russia will launch a winter offensive. If Russia launches a winter offensive, nine times out of ten, the battlefield will be Donetsk.

The problem is that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in 2014, the Ukrainian army has worked hard in the area for eight years and built strong defensive positions to prevent the Russian army from attacking. The brutality of the attack and defense of the Azov Steel Plant in Mariupol in April and May this year shocked the world. Mariupol belongs to Donetsk Oblast. Therefore, Donetsk is a tough nut.

Will Russia launch a winter offensive?

Time will give the answer.

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Wang Yiwei, Director of the Economic Observer Department

Director of the Overseas Department of the Economic Observer and an expert on Taiwan Strait issues, he has long been concerned about the private economy, international trade and anti-dumping, and also has in-depth observations on macroeconomics.