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Why is Moutai so awesome?

719 yuan, with a market value exceeding 900 billion! The stock price of Kweichow Moutai has once again become the focus of attention from all walks of life.

In fact, since August this year, the price and stock price of Moutai have been "flying together", which has continuously liberated the public's imagination that was restricted by "poverty".

On August 14, Kweichow Moutai’s share price exceeded 500 yuan, becoming the first A-share stock to exceed 500 yuan; on October 26, its opening price exceeded 600 yuan; today, under the spotlight again, Breaking through 700 yuan; in just over half a month, the stock price rose by 100 yuan, and the market value increased by 140 billion.

At the same time, Moutai has been in short supply since the beginning of August. First, the price of Feitian Moutai was limited to no more than 1,299 yuan per bottle, and only 18 bottles were sold in directly operated stores every day. Now, There is almost no wine left to sell.

From directly-operated stores to the capital market, Moutai has exploded with soaring strength on both the real and virtual stages. What is the logic behind it?

"King of Stocks"

In the A-share market in recent years, Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has always been a "god"-like existence .

How awesome is it? Predicting its stock price and market value has become a major hobby in the securities industry.

For example, Dan Bin, chairman of Shenzhen Oriental Harbor Investment Management Co., Ltd., as a firm Moutai bullish, once in May this year, "offered a reward of 100 million yuan, betting heavily on Moutai's stock price at the end of 2018." 600 yuan", which attracted a lot of criticism.

On October 26, before the end of the year, his prediction came true ahead of schedule.

Of course the major investment banks and securities firms will not just sit on the sidelines, and the target prices they give are getting more and more fierce.

At the end of October, CICC analyst Xing Tingzhi shocked the market by giving a target price as high as 845 yuan; yesterday, Goldman Sachs raised its target price again, less than two weeks after it last raised its target price. Raised to 881 yuan. A few days earlier, on November 10, Su Cheng of Essence Securities believed that its ultimate market value was 1.85 trillion yuan, more than double the market value that day.

We may as well wait and see whether these predictions can be realized. However, in the A-share market, it is indeed uncommon for stocks to have such a rise in Kweichow Moutai’s share price. According to data, Kweichow Moutai’s closing price today was 719 yuan, and its market value has exceeded 900 billion yuan.

Kweichow Moutai stock price trend

What is the concept of a market value of 900 billion?

Compared with the market value of well-known domestic listed companies, Kweichow Moutai’s market value is 2.83 times that of Vanke A , 3.27 times of Gree Electric Appliances, 4.86 times of Yili Shares, 5.68 times of ZTE Corporation, and 14 times of Sany Heavy Industry;

Flush data also shows that in the past year, 119 institutions have given "buy" " rating, 51 institutions gave it an "overweight" rating, and 0 institutions gave it a "neutral", "underweight" or "sell" rating. This means that no institution is short on Kweichow Moutai.

Certainty

There are more than 3,400 stocks in the A-share market. Why is Kweichow Moutai so strong?

At Dingjun Capital Partners Yang Huan believes that this has a lot to do with the current situation of "asset shortage + slight stagflation" in the capital market.

“At present, when there are not many high-quality assets for investment, Moutai has been regarded as a store of value.” In other words, to a certain extent, Moutai is a General equivalents embody the properties of money.

Wu Xiaoping, a senior financial professional, also holds a similar view. He believes that Moutai liquor has the same value-added function as a house, and has both physical and monetary functions.

What is the root cause?

In the capital market, investor confidence is gold. In Yang Huan's view, "certainty" gives Kweichow Moutai stock a sufficient premium. He analyzed that Kweichow Moutai’s annual performance, dividends, and dividends are very stable, giving reasons for long-term capital allocation.

According to the review, in the 16 years since its listing in 2001, its main business income has increased by more than 24 times, and its net profit has increased by more than 50 times, and has maintained a trend of increasing year by year; the weighted average return on assets has continued to Maintaining more than 10% for 16 years, it is a well-deserved blue chip stock; and from the perspective of cash dividend indicators, it is even more proud of A-shares. Dividends have never stopped in 16 years, and the cumulative dividend amount exceeds 43 billion yuan.

In addition, Wu Xiaoping believes that the high share price of Kweichow Moutai is also related to the high degree of lock-in. "The trading volume of Moutai stock is insignificant compared to its actual volume. There are more and more public and private placement options." At the same time, Maotai also adopts long-term allocation and high-level lock-up measures, so the price is less likely to fall."

Purchase restrictions

The problem is, no matter how "good" the stock is. , in the end, it all comes back to the ontology enterprise. What ultimately determines the value of its stock is the enterprise's profitability and development potential. So, how is the industrial management of Moutai Group?

I have heard of restrictions on the purchase of houses and cars, but have you heard of restrictions on the purchase of liquor?

Moutai has "restricted" it, and it is also It caused quite a stir in the commodity market.

In August, after visits, Economic Ke found that the four directly-operated stores under the Beijing branch of Moutai at that time all had such slogans: The unit price of Feitian Moutai is 1,299 yuan, and the sale is limited to 18 bottles per day. , each person is limited to purchasing two bottles. If you need it, please go to Moutai’s official website or go to the other three distribution points to purchase.

What kind of scene has been triggered by the "Purchase Restriction Order"? A person in charge of a specialty store said that starting from August 7, the popularity in front of the store every morning is no less than before the "Spring Festival Transport" At the train ticket sales point, "many people come to queue up in front of our store at four or five o'clock in the morning, just to catch up with the top nine and buy two bottles of Feitian Moutai."

The intensity of online channels is also It has not slowed down. Moutai online mall will regularly update the inventory of Feitian Moutai at 10 a.m. every day. However, the reporter personally tested and found that starting from 10 o'clock, the web page showed that it was impossible to log in. Half an hour later, Feitian Moutai had been sold out.

Why does this happen?

Fundamentally speaking, things are rare and valuable, and Moutai’s production and production conditions are too strict, which is the ultimate limit for its output that is difficult to break through. reason. Throughout Maotai Town, only the narrow valleys less than 10 kilometers in length along the Chishui River meet the production and preservation requirements of Maotai.

Aerial photography of Moutai Town

In addition, the production of wine takes a long time. Taking Feitian Moutai as an example, it needs to be aged for at least 5 years.

In other words, how many Feitian Moutai will be on the market in 2017 was decided in 2012. Even if the Moutai Group wants to open a warehouse to sell wine today and sell more Feitian Moutai, it can only demolish the east wall to make up for the west wall, and the total volume will not increase.

The output of Feitian Moutai is limited. At its historical peak, it was only 30,000 tons per year. However, this year’s volume has not reached this number, but market demand is increasing.

“This problem has no solution for the time being.” Shen Botao said.

Hoarding

What is even more incredible than queuing up overnight to buy Moutai is that there seems to be signs of monetization of Moutai on the market.

Especially the Feitian series of Maotai. In August this year, a person in charge of a Moutai directly-operated store told reporters that although various Moutai products are out of stock to varying degrees, the 500 ml Feitian Moutai with 53 degrees is the most exaggerated. “Series of wines, There are so many zodiac wines and vintage wines that no one cares about.”

Is the crazy rush to buy a single brand and single model of wine just for drinking? Just like dealers restrict purchases in the hope of selling them at a good price, rather than really only having 18 bottles per day, most of them buy Feitian People in Maotai don’t do it for drinking, but for collecting.

In Shen Botao's view, this is very dangerous. "Once tens of thousands of tons of Moutai are artificially 'hoarded' every year, it will be a disaster for the group." Shen Botao said that the top management of Moutai Group has actually noticed this problem for a long time and is aware of the crisis. "They have taken some measures, but if they want the market price to fall completely, I personally think it will be difficult in the short term."

Indeed, as mentioned earlier, Moutai not only "restricts purchases", but also "limits prices."

Between the end of 2016 and the Spring Festival this year, its price once rose to about 1,300 yuan/bottle.

In April this year, when prices were on the rise again, the group once again limited prices and set the recommended price for self-operated stores at 1,199 yuan, while the market target controlled price was set at the current 1,299 yuan.

But it is difficult to control the actual selling price of dealers. When Moutai is in an upward trend, consumers become increasingly reluctant to drink Moutai, dealers think it is a rare commodity, and collectors are tempted to buy it.

Shen Botao suggested that Moutai Group may increase the proportion of supply to online channels, implement electronic identity information authentication purchase restrictions, gradually cut off the supply to offline physical dealers, and reallocate manufacturers, channels and Terminal benefits.

Is this possible? Judging from the current performance of Moutai, it seems a bit difficult.

The third quarterly report of 2017 shows that from January to September, the number of domestic dealers of Moutai was 2,965, an increase of 634 from the end of last year, an increase of 27.2%; the number of foreign dealers was 104, an increase of 19 from the end of last year. home, an increase of 22.4%.

Correspondingly, its performance in the third quarter has increased. Under the "other payables" account, the balance at the beginning of the year was 1.725 billion yuan, and the balance at the end was 3.092 billion yuan, an increase of 79.29%. The increase in other payables was "mainly due to the increase in dealer deposits and promotion fees payable."

In other words, the number of dealers is directly proportional to the group's revenue. It seems that it is not easy for Moutai Group to completely cut off the relationship with dealers.

On May 18 this year, Moutai Group stated that it would build Moutai into a 100-billion-level enterprise and achieve Guizhou's "zero breakthrough in becoming a 100-billion-level enterprise" by 2020. Subsequently, Chairman Yuan Renguo revealed that of the 100 billion sales target in 2020, the Moutai segment accounts for more than 70 billion yuan, and the remaining more than 20 billion yuan is supported by the financial sector. Moutai Group seems to have strong momentum to develop its financial sector.

However, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Central Bank, recently wrote an article stating that it is necessary to "establish and improve the regulation and supervision of financial holding companies, strictly restrict and standardize the investment of non-financial enterprises in financial institutions, and institutionally isolate the industrial sector and the financial sector." .

Will this affect Kweichow Moutai’s financial business segment in the future, and thus its revenue target of 100 billion? While its liquor segment has almost steadily reached its target, this issue still seems to have some uncertainty. Certainty.

Rare things are more valuable.