How will the pig industry be laid out in the future?

"Raising pigs from the south to the north" is a hot word in the pig industry in 20 17, and all pig farmers will not feel strange, because it is closely related to every pig farmer.

At present, what makes pig farmers feel the deepest is the nationwide environmental protection rectification, which has formed a "demolition tide" of pig farms from south to north. At the same time, large enterprises are constantly building and expanding pig farms. So, is the influence of "raising pigs from the south to the north" limited to this? What is its far-reaching influence on the whole pig industry? What are the opportunities and risks?

According to the "National Pig Production Development Plan (20 16-2020)" formulated by the Ministry of Agriculture, pig development areas are divided into four categories: key development areas, restricted development areas, potential growth areas and moderate development areas, that is, where environmental resources are limited, pigs should be raised less, and traditional pig production areas with environmental carrying capacity should focus on developing pig breeding. This is what we usually call "raising pigs from the south to the north".

According to this development plan, seven provinces (cities) of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, Guangxi, Sichuan and Hainan are key development areas, Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai and southern water network areas are restricted development areas, four northeastern provinces and Yunnan and Guizhou provinces are potential growth areas, and seven provinces such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai and Ningxia are moderate development areas. That is to say, according to the regional division of "south" and "north", the southern region is mostly in the restricted development zone, while the northern region is in the key development zone, potential growth zone and moderate development zone, and the northern region has more development potential.

From a comprehensive point of view, China has a vast territory, and the northern region can be divided into northeast, northwest and north China. Different geographical and natural conditions, feed resources and geographical location have their own advantages and disadvantages, which will further affect the layout of pig industry.

As far as location conditions are concerned, the main area of pork consumption in China is in the south, and due to people's consumption habits, the current pig transportation can only be dominated by pigs. In the event of high temperature or cold wave cooling weather, the risk of pig transportation will also increase. Therefore, Northeast China, which is farthest from the sales area, not only has higher transportation costs, but also has greater transportation risks, while North China has more obvious location advantages.

From the perspective of raw material cost, Northeast China is the main corn producing area. Building a factory in Northeast China to raise pigs is rich in corn resources and low in price, but the cost advantages of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and wheat bran are not so obvious. Therefore, Northeast China has a certain cost advantage, but the comprehensive cost may not be the lowest. North China, which occupies the advantage of comprehensive feed cost, is not only a corn and wheat producing area, but also close to the port. Corn, soybean meal, wheat bran and other feed raw materials are rich in resources and cheap.

As far as the current breeding is concerned, the northwest region is mostly in the moderate development area of pig breeding, with vast territory, rich land resources and agricultural and sideline products resources, and good conditions for the combination of agriculture and animal husbandry. However, the foundation of pig breeding is weak, and some provinces are short of water resources, which restricts pig production. North China is the main producing area of traditional pigs in China, and the total amount of breeding has been very large. Northeast China is a potential producing area.

It can be seen that although they are all located in the northern region, the specific conditions in different regions are different. Under the general trend of "raising pigs from the south to the north", how will the pig industry be laid out in the future? What impact will "raising pigs in the south and raising pigs in the north" have on the whole pig industry and pig industry chain? What changes will be closely related to pig farmers? How should pig farmers of different sizes seek development?

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