Network public opinion early warning mechanism

The final result of online public opinion judgment should be reflected in the prediction of public opinion development and necessary intervention, so as to guide online public opinion to develop in the right direction and become a constructive and promoting positive force for the harmonious development of society; Instead of letting it spread in disorder, it has become a negative factor that undermines social order, hinders social progress, and undermines fairness and justice. Therefore, the establishment of the prediction-intervention mechanism of online public opinion has become a key part of the online public opinion judgment system. In order to realize scientific prediction and reasonable intervention of online public opinion, especially to implement the correct public opinion decision made by the government in online public opinion communication, we must correctly guide the development direction of online public opinion, grasp the main tone of online public opinion, and promote and enhance the effect of government online communication through the benign interaction between the government and online public opinion.

first of all, we should do a good job in systematic planning of network public opinion intervention. As one of the modern scientific methodologies, system theory has been widely used in various disciplines, and systematic thinking and overall planning are particularly important in the practice of online public opinion, that is, to examine online public opinion as a whole, and to grasp the systematic characteristics and general laws of online public opinion from the relationship between the overall situation and some thematic viewpoints, interest demands and audience structure. The intervention of network public opinion involves not only the theoretical cognition of many disciplines and fields such as politics, sociology, public administration, journalism, communication and education, but also the practical interaction of government administrative management system, social organization system and public activity system, as well as the communication and operation of news media. It is best to use the network public opinion monitoring system of Le Si to monitor. Therefore, as a research institution of online public opinion, it must treat online public opinion from an overall perspective, and its public opinion intervention must also be based on the overall planning of all aspects involved in the system.

For example, after the planning of "Hankou Road West Extension Project" in Nanjing was criticized and hotly discussed by teachers and students in colleges and universities along the route, especially after news reports of individual media with the title "Want the University or Want the Road" participated in public opinion, which further aggravated the conflict of public opinion, the relevant online public opinion research institutions suggested to take a systematic and coordinated approach to intervene. On the one hand, from the perspective of public management and political science, after the online public opinion incident, the relevant responsible government departments and universities will communicate and cooperate effectively, reach an agreement on planning discussion and implementation steps, control the further development of the situation, and lead public opinion to a constructive and constructive benign track.

On the other hand, from the perspective of communication, in addition to strengthening the guidance of public opinion and the emotional guidance of teachers and students in the "virtual society" of the network, we also had face-to-face communication with the journalists who participated in the discussion, and further explained and explained the scientific demonstration and optimization of the engineering scheme, thus realizing the "giving consideration to both reality and reality" and "treating both the symptoms and root causes" of online and offline public opinion guidance; At the same time, from the perspective of pedagogy, colleges and universities take the initiative to publish replies to teachers and students through campus BBS, expressing that the school has notified everyone's opinions to superiors and relevant functional departments, and will inform teachers, students and people who care about and love the school as soon as possible once there is exact news, thus effectively controlling bad public opinion and emotional and antagonistic views. In a word, the response and disposal of this online public opinion event and public opinion intervention have been recognized and understood by all parties, and the correct guidance of online public opinion has been realized from both macro and micro aspects.

Secondly, we should fully compare interests and properly handle the relationship between public interests and individual interests in public opinion intervention. In social science research, comparative analysis is the most intuitive and enlightening, and there are various interests behind any online public opinion event. In the process of forecasting and forecasting online public opinion, we must make a comparative analysis of the interests of all parties behind the relevant events. On the one hand, we should put the interests of the public in the first place, support and safeguard the public opinion views and tendencies of the interests of the public; On the other hand, we should also respect the interests of individuals, protect their legitimate rights and interests, understand and support their legitimate interests, and tolerate the intense emotions expressed by the loss of interests. Grasp the balance of interests in online public opinion with the correct interest orientation.

For example, in the online public opinion caused by the "5.7 drag racing case" in Hangzhou in 29 and the "6.3" car accident in Jiangning District of Nanjing, we can get useful inspiration from the differences in the interests of the two places in dealing with public opinion events. The "drag racing case" in Hangzhou was caused on the evening of May 7, 29. The contrast between the perpetrators who are "rich children" and the victims who are ordinary passers-by has become a hot topic of discussion among netizens, and has become an explosive and influential network event. Throughout the development of the whole incident, although the relevant parties in Hangzhou were quick and efficient in handling the incident, the "Hangzhou drag racing case" was restored from a popular network incident to an ordinary traffic accident. However, under the guidance of the online public opinion caused by the incident, the Hangzhou municipal government and relevant departments can describe it as "caught off guard and rushed to fight". According to the "7 yards" made by the traffic police in Hangzhou, it can be said that such a statement is not to put out the fire, but to add fuel to the fire, and it is to hit the muzzle of netizens. However, the relevant parties in Hangzhou did not respond in time at the beginning of the public opinion incident, and they did not carefully examine the interests and development trends of all parties in the incident, which led to a complete contradiction with the wishes of netizens and the interests of the public, and they fell into a passive position as soon as they took the initiative.

On the contrary, after the "6.3" car accident in Jiangning District, Nanjing, a month later, the government departments immediately notified the incident, rescued the injured and dealt with the aftermath. At the same time, in addition to organizing the traditional media to fully report, they also released the progress information of the incident on the Internet in time. In the process of disposal, we insist on proceeding from the interests of the public, and define the perpetrator's behavior as "endangering the security of the public in a dangerous way", which not only satisfies the public opinion's appeal for the interests of the public, but also soothes the netizens' emotions. Moreover, the government's positive and proper handling of the incident has also won the approval of the majority of netizens.

Furthermore, on the basis of content analysis, it is necessary to properly choose the intervention opinions to join, so that intervention itself becomes a reasonable part of public opinion, which is conducive to the construction of social harmonious public opinion. Public opinion and public opinion information are different, and public opinion is often implicit, so we need to analyze the relevant content to get a correct judgment. The public opinion information is straightforward and needs to be expressed and expressed through carriers and channels. The development of Internet provides an ideal expression channel for people's implicit emotions and attitudes. People often spread online public opinion information through news comments, online chats, BBS and blogs. These specific forms of public opinion information contain people's emotions and reflect people's social and political attitudes, and their roots, development trends and possible consequences require in-depth analysis and research by the government. Only by in-depth analysis of public opinion content can we properly choose the intervention opinions and effectively guide the network public opinion to develop in the right direction.

For example, in the network public opinion caused by the "Southern Airlines North Gate Incident" in Nanjing, it is necessary to deeply analyze the composition and correlation of public opinion content, choose appropriate opinions and express them, and promote the smooth resolution of public opinion. The incident was caused by the posting of netizen "Cute de Boy" in the official version of Xici Zero Distance on May 18th, 29. The post said that the day was 18; pm, Jiangning District Urban Management confiscated the stall items placed in front of Le Jia suguo supermarket near the north gate of China Southern Airlines in Jiangning University Town, and injured two uncooperative girls who set up stalls in China Southern Airlines. After the students reported to the police, the two sides were taken away by the police for investigation. Because students think that the police are partial to urban management, some students are late at 19; pm, urban management law enforcement vehicles, buses and private cars were blocked, and some people who have set up stalls here for a long time also participated. Afterwards, thousands of students gathered to watch, and some of the onlookers wrote slogans of "non-violence and non-cooperation" and "helping the disadvantaged groups to build a harmonious society" in both Chinese and English, and asked the urban management to "apologize and let people go" in unison.

From the analysis of the contents and photos of this incident, it can be seen that this incident was deliberately created by someone, and the demonstration at the scene was suspected of being premeditated, deliberately taking the opportunity to use students to stir up trouble. Because those who held the slogan of "non-violence and non-cooperation" in Chinese and English in the incident could not have produced the slogan in such a short time. Therefore, the public opinion monitoring Department asked the urban management and the school to clarify the truth in time, and pointed out that the "Northern Gate Incident of China Southern Airlines" was not a conflict between students and urban management personnel, but a dispute between urban management personnel and road-occupying operators in law enforcement. At the same time, organize students who know the situation on the spot to explain the truth in time through the network, clarify the facts actively, guide public opinion to develop in an objective, stable and orderly direction, and promote the rapid resolution of online public opinion.

In addition, the effect of public opinion intervention should be measured in real time, evaluated from both quantitative and qualitative aspects, and fed back to the process of public opinion intervention to correct improper public opinion intervention. Public opinion intervention is based on the scientific prediction of public opinion trend, and whether it can achieve the correct goal of public opinion guidance needs to be tested through the realistic public opinion field. Therefore, the effect of public opinion intervention should be measured in real time, not only by quantitative methods, but also by presenting the changes in the proportion of different opinions of online public opinion; It is also necessary to judge the overall public opinion by qualitative methods and feed it back to the implementer of public opinion intervention. In practical work, the results of public opinion analysis, judgment and prediction are not always completely consistent with reality, and wrong judgment and inappropriate public opinion intervention should be corrected in time.