The first anniversary of epidemic-free: the period of industrial integration challenged by "south pig going west"

The Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported on August 1 day that an African swine fever epidemic occurred in honghu city, Hubei Province. So far, African swine fever has been introduced to China for one year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, after the outbreak, local artists requested to start an emergency response mechanism and take measures such as blockade, culling, harmless treatment and disinfection to treat all dead pigs and culled pigs harmlessly. At the same time, all pigs and their products are prohibited from being transferred out of the blockade area, and pigs are prohibited from being transported into the blockade area.

This epidemic not only impacted the domestic aquaculture order, but also reshaped the new pattern of domestic aquaculture. As Han Changfu, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, emphasized at the national video conference on the prevention and control of African swine fever on July 23rd, the prevention and control of African swine fever is a tough battle with no retreat, and it is a protracted war that needs constant unremitting efforts.

The African swine fever epidemic is still spreading around the world.

As of July 3rd this year, there were 143 cases of African swine fever in China, and more than1160,000 pigs were culled. At present, all the epidemic areas in 25 provinces and autonomous regions have been lifted. The epidemic situation of swine fever in Africa has obviously slowed down, and the order of pig production and marketing has gradually resumed.

"In the past year, the prevention and control of African swine fever in China has achieved initial results." On July 4th, Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs made the above comments at the briefing on the State Council policy held by the State Council Office.

However, the situation of prevention and control of African swine fever in China is still grim. Internationally, the prevention and control of African swine fever is a global problem. Of the 68 countries and regions where the epidemic occurred, only 13 countries were eliminated. Since the beginning of this year, 18 countries and regions have reported more than 5,800 epidemics.

According to the data of the World Organization for Animal Health, Europe has become the hardest hit area of African swine fever. Since 20 19, there have been 778 cases of African swine fever in Hungary, 503 cases in Belgium, 323 cases in Romania, 25 cases in Ukraine and 7 cases in Africa.

In Asia, since 20 19, there have been 28 14 African swine fever outbreaks in Viet Nam, 7 in Cambodia, 2 in China and Hongkong, and 1 in North Korea.

Over the past year, the guidelines of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have also changed, from "Persevere in winning the African swine fever annihilation war" at the beginning of the epidemic to "Ensure to win the African swine fever prevention and control battle" in June of this year, and then "Persevere in winning the African swine fever prevention and control battle and protracted war" in July.

Jing Shu, a data analyst in Zhu Yi, told the First Financial Reporter that China has taken different measures to prevent and control African swine fever in different periods, which reflects the key points of solving major market problems in different periods. In the early stage, controlling the spread of the epidemic is the most important, so the attitude of prohibiting transfer is very clear. However, the supply of pigs decreased in the later period, and measures to encourage re-feeding began to appear.

African swine fever ended the downward cycle of pig prices ahead of schedule.

Pork is an important food basket product. Since the occurrence of African swine fever, the fluctuation of pork market has been the focus of attention.

Combing the changes of pig price in the past year, we can find that the decline of production capacity ended the downward cycle of pig price ahead of schedule, making the "bull market" of pig price longer and wider.

At the beginning of the outbreak of African swine fever, a large number of pigs were passively eliminated, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs banned the dispatch of pigs, which directly led to the failure of large pigs to be released on time and the inability of farms to obtain piglets to make up the stalls.

At the same time, the continuous feeding of big pigs makes the cash flow of farms tense, and the occupation of pig houses by big pigs objectively limits the supplement of piglets, which leads to the decline of piglet prices, the loss of breeding and the passive elimination of a large number of sows.

Fearing the epidemic situation, residents also reduced pork consumption, which also made it more difficult to sell pigs.

Taking March this year as the boundary, the persistence of the epidemic (August 201August to June 1 1) led to the decline of pig prices in the main producing areas, while the pig prices in the main selling areas increased due to the lack of pigs. Since March, the pig price has been rising continuously, and the pig price has always been firm.

Keke, director of the Department of Market and Economic Information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, explained that the rapid increase in the price of live pigs was mainly affected by the African swine fever epidemic. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the production capacity of pigs and fertile sows has been declining continuously, and the supply of pork market is tight and the donation effect has recently begun to appear.

In the industry, a 5% year-on-year decrease in the number of fertile sows is an early warning line. From 20 18 to 10, this indicator has reached 5.9% in 400 counties monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. After that, the decline expanded month by month, and by June this year, the year-on-year decline reached 26.7%.

According to Keke, according to the rules of pig production, it takes about 10 months from sow pregnancy and piglet birth to fattening pigs being happy. In June and July this year, the basic production capacity of pigs decreased, which led to the problems of reduced supply of pigs and rising prices.

Faced with the increase in pig prices caused by severe de-capacity, the China Municipal Government stressed that it is necessary to do a good job in the prevention and control of African swine fever and pig production as a whole, so as to ensure that the epidemic situation does not rebound, the meat supply continues, and the pig market is generally stable. Among them, from the aspects of corresponding policies and supporting support, it has become industry knowledge to promote the rapid recovery of production capacity after the epidemic has weakened or disappeared.

A few days ago, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Plan on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of African Classical Swine Fever" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which made arrangements for comprehensively improving the prevention and control ability of animal diseases, strengthening the prevention and control of African classical swine fever and stabilizing pig production.

The far-reaching influence of industry under protracted war

A series of policy emergency measures adopted by the government will not only affect the future trend of the pig cycle, but also have a deeper impact on the whole industry.

In Feng Yonghui's view, the pig market in China has been competing to allocate resources nationwide through large-scale production, consumption and circulation. However, after the emergence of African swine fever, the government took serious measures to prohibit pigs from being slaughtered across provinces, and the market would only compete for resource allocation in the region.

For example, in recent years, the strategic layout of "south pig going west" and the pattern of "big pig circulation" in China have been adjusted accordingly. With the influence of multiple factors at home and abroad, a series of links in the whole pig industry chain, from upstream soybeans, feed and veterinary vaccines to downstream slaughtering and processing, pork import and export, and substitutes, will have a chain reaction.

Taking soybean import trade as an example, Pacific Shipping (02343-HK) disclosed the interim results of 20 19, and the profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 73.3% year-on-year. The management explained that this was caused by one-off negative factors, including Sino-US trade friction in the first half of the year, African swine fever affecting China's soybean imports and so on, which adversely affected the Group's performance.

Large pig breeding enterprises generally suffered large losses in the first quarter of this year, and the whole industry began to usher in a new integration period. Lin Guofa, research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection Network, said that the collective layout of group enterprises will be adjusted, medium-sized enterprises in the region will be adjusted, and small and medium-sized retail investors will accelerate their withdrawal. The number of live pigs in large enterprises is greatly affected by African swine fever, and it remains to be seen whether the previous performance expectations can be fulfilled in the later period.

At the same time, this round of epidemic triggered a new layout of pig production capacity. In pig breeding, the main cost is feed. Feed groups with less pig production capacity in the early stage will probably speed up the production capacity layout and share the dividends brought by this round of pig price bull market.

In addition, due to the long-distance transportation of pigs or restrictions, the meat cold chain logistics industry will usher in a rare development opportunity, thus driving the development of the slaughter-cold chain industry. In the future, cold meat will gradually replace hot meat and become the mainstream of the market.