Uncertainty decision-making methods include () method.

This is based on a "conservative" attitude and adopts the method of "taking the smallest and the most" (or the principle of "seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages"), which is also called "Huade decision criterion", that is, it is better to estimate the situation worse, first select the lowest value of each scheme, and then select the most beneficial or beneficial scheme after comparison. This decision is safe and reliable.

2, optimistic coefficient decision criteria

This criterion is that decision makers are optimistic about the future situation and take into account the impact of unfavorable situation, also known as the leonid hurwicz criterion.

According to this criterion, according to the market situation and personal experience, the decision-maker determines an optimistic coefficient α as the subjective probability in advance, and then selects the maximum and minimum profit and loss values of each scheme. Multiply A by the maximum profit and loss value, and then multiply (1-a) by the minimum profit and loss value as the expected income of the scheme. Comparing the expected benefits of various schemes, the biggest one is the best scheme. α is generally 0.667.

3, the golden mean decision-making standard

In this method, the decision-maker first makes three most optimistic, conservative and possible estimates of the natural state of each scheme, and then compares and selects the best calculation expectation.

4. Minimum regret decision criteria

This method is the method of "choosing the minimum regret value", also known as Sayag decision criterion. It judges the advantages and disadvantages of each scheme by the size of opportunity loss. The so-called opportunity loss refers to the income difference caused by the decision to adopt a more conservative plan because of high market demand or the decision to adopt a larger investment plan because of low market demand.

5. Equal probability standard (equal opportunity standard)

This standard is also called Laplace criterion. It believes that when there is no reason to explain which events have more opportunities, they can only be considered as equal opportunities. At this time, the probability of various natural states is: 1/n, which is used to calculate the expected value of each scheme. After comparison, the scheme with higher expectation is selected as the decision-making scheme.

Extended data

Decision-making under uncertainty is different from risky decision-making. Decision-making under uncertainty has no reference at all, or has made a decision without any reference.

From the above description, the difference between them should be obvious. At least there are examples of risk-based decision-making, scientific prediction and analysis, not blind. The decision under uncertainty is made without any reference or investigation and analysis.

Baidu Encyclopedia-Decision under Uncertainty Method