What is the impact of China's new normal on China's exchange rate operation?

The international monetary policy is divided and the dollar continues to strengthen.

Since the post-financial crisis, countries' economic performance has been different. Although the world's major economies have bright spots from time to time, many of them are "short-lived", which is far from the steady development and gradual upward trend of the American economy. Due to the inconsistent pace of economic recovery in various countries, the global monetary policy has been divided. In the current global economic downturn, central banks are considering using unconventional measures to get out of trouble, while the Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates in due course. Coupled with geopolitical and other factors, market risk aversion has warmed up, and a large amount of capital has flooded into the United States to seek preservation and appreciation, resulting in the continued strength of the US dollar, while non-US dollar currencies are generally under depreciation pressure.

First of all, the global economic recovery and differentiation strongly support the strength of the US dollar. The American economy has rebounded strongly since the second quarter of 20 14, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was further revised upward to 5%, the highest since the past 1 1 year. In addition, through "re-industrialization" and "shale gas revolution", the United States has significantly enhanced its endogenous growth momentum and got rid of the constraints of energy conditions, and the pace of recovery will be steadily accelerated. However, the European economic recovery is still weak, the Japanese economy will remain at a low level, and the risks of emerging economies will increase, which can be described as "sunrise in the east and rain in the west". The pattern of major developed economies and the US economy strongly supports the strengthening of the US dollar.

Secondly, the differentiation of global monetary policy has further pushed the US dollar into the appreciation cycle, and the pressure of depreciation of non-US dollar currencies has increased. With the strong recovery of the American economy, the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve gradually withdrew, and interest rate hikes gradually surfaced. The minutes of the FOMC meeting in June 5438+ 10 just released by the Federal Reserve have more confidence in the improvement of the labor market. At the same time, it is believed that inflation will fall again in the short term, but it is an obvious trend to rise in the medium term and remain stable for a long time, and the wording of "long-term" maintaining the current low interest rate has been cancelled. It can be seen that the Fed is steadily and cautiously changing the forward-looking guidelines for gradually raising interest rates. The FOMC meeting statement shows that the Fed has taken another step towards raising interest rates. Therefore, not surprisingly, the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates in the third quarter of this year.

At the same time, European and Japanese central banks continued to release water on a large scale. The euro zone is once again close to the brink of recession and faces greater deflation risks. The European Central Bank's monetary policy once again made a heavy blow, and on June 22, 65438, it announced the expansion of asset purchase projects, which even exceeded the mainstream market expectations. The Bank of Japan also announced the expansion of asset purchases, and the annual growth target of the monetary base was expanded to 80 trillion yen. Driven by the implementation of quantitative easing policy in Europe and the expected increase in the depreciation of the euro, major currencies are competing to depreciate.

Thirdly, geopolitical factors have led to an increase in risk aversion, further pushing up the exchange rate of the US dollar. Since 20 14, the international geopolitical situation has been constantly tense. The situation in Syria, Gaza and Iraq is escalating, and the disputes between Russia and Ukraine are endless. Recently, sanctions in Europe, America, Japan and Russia have escalated, and the risk of Greece's Brexit has increased. A series of factors have further enhanced the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. The future international geopolitical situation still faces great uncertainty, and the possibility of local disputes still exists. In the case of rising risk aversion, funds will flow back to the United States again, thus supporting the strength of the US dollar and increasing the depreciation pressure of non-US dollar currencies.

It should be pointed out that although the strong recovery trend of the American economy will not change, there are still many deep-seated problems in the American economy, including low labor participation rate and persistently low inflation rate. Peripheral economies such as Europe and Japan are still weak, and the process of world economic recovery is still tortuous, which may drag down the US economy. Therefore, the strength of the dollar may not be smooth sailing. At the same time, we should also dialectically understand the impact of the tightening of US monetary policy. In the early days when the United States accelerates to withdraw from QE, global capital will return to the United States on a large scale, which will lead to capital outflow and the strengthening of the US dollar. However, the accelerated recovery of the US economy will not only drive the export growth of emerging market countries including China, but also lead to a rebound in the risk appetite of global capital. Therefore, with the increasing confidence in the US economic growth prospects and the improvement of the world economy, the US imports increase, the trade deficit increases, and the risk appetite picks up, the US dollar is likely to face depreciation pressure again and fluctuate repeatedly.

The RMB is facing greater pressure of phased depreciation.

The difference of global recovery and the differentiation of monetary policy have promoted the strength of the US dollar, which in turn has brought the pressure of RMB depreciation against the US dollar. 20 14 Since mid-February, the RMB has fluctuated and depreciated against the US dollar. In 20 14, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly by 0.36%, and the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar even depreciated by 2.7%, which was the first real annual depreciation of RMB exchange rate since the exchange rate reform in 2005. In 20 15, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar once again showed a rare depreciation pressure, and it almost approached the limit line for several days in recent days.

Internationally, the differentiation of global monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar may lead to capital outflow, which will bring the pressure of tightening domestic liquidity and RMB depreciation. At present and in the future, it is unlikely that the economies of Europe and Japan will improve rapidly, and the international financial market will remain in turmoil. The appreciation of the US dollar will cause some funds to leave China to buy US dollars and US dollar assets, and China will face the pressure of capital outflow and RMB depreciation. In fact, the operational changes of foreign exchange holdings since 20 14 have already reflected this point. New foreign exchange holdings began to drop sharply in May, and have been hovering at a low level since then, and even experienced negative growth in some months. In the whole year, the foreign exchange holdings of financial institutions increased by 778.66 billion yuan, down by 72% year-on-year. It is expected that at the beginning of the Fed's interest rate hike, China will once again face the pressure of capital outflow and RMB depreciation.

Domestically, China's economy has entered a complex period of "three-phase superposition", the economic growth rate has slowed down and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. The manufacturing PMI of 201may was 49.8%, which fell for five consecutive months and fell into the contraction range for the first time in the past 28 months. Under the joint action of macro-economic growth shift and profound changes in the industry, the risks and problems of local industry agglomeration are in danger of exposure, leading to a period of large fluctuations in market sentiment. In the face of increasing downward pressure on the economy, the expectation of neutral easing of monetary policy is strengthened, and the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in the near future is enhanced, which further leads to increased pressure on capital outflow and downward pressure on RMB exchange rate. At the same time, China has become a capital exporter. 20 14 foreign direct investment has exceeded the absorption of foreign direct investment, and the pace of enterprises going abroad has accelerated, which has promoted capital outflow and increased foreign exchange demand in the market.

Under the influence of the strengthening of the US dollar and the expected strengthening of RMB depreciation, the willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange has decreased, and the motivation to purchase foreign exchange has increased, further increasing the market demand for foreign exchange. According to the data of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the proportion of bank settlement on behalf of customers, which measures the willingness of enterprises and individuals to settle foreign exchange, has generally declined, from 77% in the first quarter to 68% in the second and third quarters, and rebounded slightly to 7 1% in the fourth quarter, with an average annual rate of 7 1%, and the settlement exchange rate decreased by 1 percentage point over the previous year. On the other hand, the proportion of banks selling foreign exchange on behalf of customers (that is, the selling exchange rate), which measures the motivation of buying foreign exchange, rose from 665,438+0% in the first quarter to 73% in the fourth quarter and 69% in the whole year, and the selling exchange rate increased by 6 percentage points over the previous year.

The fundamentals of China's economy support the stability of RMB exchange rate.

First of all, China's economy is expected to continue to maintain medium and high-speed growth. Although there are still many uncertain factors inside and outside China's economy in the short term, and the downward pressure on the economy is great, we should also see that a series of positive factors are accumulating, and there is still much room for macro-control policies. The interconnection of infrastructure, the "Belt and Road" and the coordinated development of regional economy will revitalize the stock of some excess capacity in China and expand new external space while solving the problem of excess capacity. More importantly, with the steady progress of reform, the economic structure will be continuously optimized, the quality and efficiency of development will be continuously improved, and new growth points are expected to be cultivated. Therefore, in the next 3-5 years, China's economy is expected to continue to maintain a medium-to-high-speed growth of around 7-7.5%, and stable economic growth is the basis for supporting the stability of RMB exchange rate. It is hard to imagine that the currency of a country that maintains a medium-high growth rate will depreciate sharply.

Secondly, China is still expected to maintain a certain balance of payments surplus. In recent years, driven by the policy of promoting international balance of payments, China's international balance of payments surplus has narrowed, but it will still maintain a certain scale, and the surplus pattern will not change in the short term. Although the demographic dividend is fading, compared with the international market, the comparative advantage of China's labor price is likely to remain for some time. According to statistics, in 20 14 years, China's balance of payments surplus still reached 1000 billion dollars. However, with the strong recovery of the US economy and the recovery of the world economy, China's exports are expected to improve and its import demand will accelerate. In the future, China's current account surplus will maintain steady growth, and the balance of payments will still maintain a certain surplus. The stability of the balance of payments will basically maintain the stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves, which will make the RMB lack the basis for trend depreciation.

We must realistically see that there are great structural problems in China's trade balance, that is, on the one hand, it basically runs a deficit with major economies such as the European Union and ASEAN, and only has a huge surplus with the United States, which may restrict the free fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent, but it also restricts the possibility of a significant trend depreciation of the RMB. According to statistics, the surplus with the United States accounted for more than 100% of the total surplus in previous years. Although 20 13 has improved, it has reached 83%, and it is expected that 20 14 will remain above 65%. In view of the problems in the trade structure, the huge trade imbalance between China and the United States is difficult to change quickly in the short term. The principle of international economics of currency appreciation in surplus countries and currency depreciation in deficit countries means that RMB will still have appreciation pressure against the US dollar in the future. Therefore, it can be said that the large imbalance in Sino-US trade basically blocked the possibility of a sharp trend depreciation of the RMB.

Thirdly, adequate foreign exchange reserves are an important basis for ensuring the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate and guiding market expectations. China has nearly US$ 4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, ranking first in the world, which is an important guarantee to prevent the expected sharp depreciation of the RMB and fall into the vicious circle of "expected currency depreciation → capital outflow → expected depreciation enhancement ……". In the case of sufficient foreign exchange reserves, the central parity of exchange rate can give full play to the effective guiding role expected by the market, and the market will not be "indifferent" to the central parity, thus ensuring that the exchange rate remains basically stable.

The sharp depreciation of RMB and the "new normal"

Intrinsic requirements are diametrically opposed.

Under the "new normal", investment will continue to play a key role, consumption will continue to play a basic role, and exports will continue to play a supporting role, but the economy will shift from the traditional growth point to a new growth point, and domestic demand will become the main driving force for economic growth. Under the "new normal", the strategy of deepening economic restructuring, industrial restructuring and upgrading, and improving economic quality and efficiency requires that we can no longer rely on low currency value to enhance export competitiveness, but rely on depreciation to promote exports.

At present, China's economy is evolving to a stage with more advanced form, more complicated division of labor and more reasonable structure. Economic development has entered a new normal and is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. The mode of economic development is changing from extensive growth of scale and speed to intensive growth of quality and efficiency. The economic structure is shifting from incremental capacity expansion to deep adjustment of stock adjustment and optimization increment, and the driving force of economic development is shifting from traditional growth point to new growth point.

Exchange rate is an important variable in structural adjustment and industrial transformation and upgrading. As an important relative price level variable, exchange rate affects the cost of international division of labor and plays an important role in economic restructuring and industrial transformation and upgrading. The depreciation of RMB has obvious promotion effect on the export of low-end manufacturing and labor-intensive products, but it has certain inhibition effect on the export of technology-intensive products. The depreciation of RMB may weaken the motivation of low-end manufacturing and labor-intensive industries to move to the central and western regions, and may also weaken the motivation of upgrading their own industries through their own innovation and transformation.

In addition, the continued sharp depreciation of RMB will increase the cost for domestic enterprises to introduce foreign advanced technology, which is not conducive to the upgrading of industrial technology and the increase of added value of export products, to the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and then to the improvement of economic quality and efficiency. Therefore, the inherent requirement of the new economic normal does not support the policy orientation of RMB's sharp trend depreciation.

Enterprises "going out" and RMB internationalization need a strong currency value.

At present, China has become a big capital exporter, and the internationalization of RMB has been steadily promoted. From the perspective of internationalization strategy, it is not appropriate for the RMB to continue to depreciate sharply.

At present, the continuous sharp depreciation of RMB is not conducive to enterprises' "going out". In recent years, the "going out" of China enterprises has become a new bright spot in China's foreign economy, and China has gradually become a capital exporter, and the scale of foreign investment has been continuously expanded. In 20 14, the scale of China's foreign investment reached140 billion US dollars, and the actual foreign investment exceeded the amount of foreign investment absorbed by about 20 billion US dollars for the first time, becoming a net exporter, and the development potential of enterprises' foreign investment is still great. International experience shows that the process of expanding capital export is often accompanied by the appreciation of local currency, and the path taken by pound, dollar, mark and yen is the same. Devaluation runs counter to expanding capital output. If the RMB continues to depreciate sharply, enterprises may suffer exchange losses, and the cost of foreign debt will increase, which will aggravate the financial risks of enterprises and is not conducive to enterprises' "going out".

Steadily promoting the internationalization of RMB requires that the value of RMB be stable and relatively firm. For international currency, the stability of value is the basis of its trading medium, pricing scale and storage function. Both the RMB settlement in the trade field and the issuance of financial assets denominated in RMB need to be based on the stability of exchange rate. It is hard to imagine that a persistently weak currency will be widely held by global investors. The continued sharp depreciation of the RMB is not only not conducive to promoting the internationalization of the RMB, but may even make the internationalization of the RMB retrogress. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate that continues to depreciate sharply obviously runs counter to the internationalization of RMB.

Continued sharp depreciation of RMB may lead to open systemic financial risks.

Continued large-scale depreciation of RMB may aggravate the risk of capital flight and expose the economy to open systemic financial risks. At present, the scale of China's capital projects is not small, and the continuous sharp depreciation may trigger a large-scale flight of short-term capital. Both theory and practice show that capital control is not only expensive, but also the effectiveness of control is getting worse and worse. Once capital outflow becomes a trend, it is difficult to be effectively stopped. In addition, the pace of capital and financial account opening in China is accelerating. Moreover, large-scale capital flight and rapid devaluation of the local currency may interact and go back and forth, impacting RMB asset prices and domestic financial markets through liquidity effect, anti-wealth effect and substitution effect.

Judging from the liquidity effect, RMB depreciation will reduce the profit space of speculative capital, promote capital outflow, lead to domestic capital shortage flowing to real estate, stocks and other markets, and then affect the prices of real estate and stocks. Judging from the adverse wealth effect, the depreciation of RMB will cause the price of imported goods to rise, which will lead to the decrease of imports, the increase of domestic commodity prices, the lack of social purchasing power, and the decrease of domestic demand for financial assets such as real estate and stocks, which will eventually form downward pressure on the price of financial assets.

From the perspective of substitution effect, in the case of RMB depreciation or expected depreciation, the government will intervene in the market to maintain exchange rate stability, which may cause insufficient liquidity and curb the price increase of financial assets such as real estate and stocks. At present, the recovery process of China and the world's major economies has experienced repeated twists and turns to varying degrees. In addition, the domestic stock market has been in a bear market for a long time, and the risk of real estate bubble is also lurking. In this complicated situation, if the trend of RMB depreciation is left unchecked, the market will form false expectations, which is not only not conducive to steady growth, but may even give birth to and encourage similar financial risks in the open system.

It should be noted that a large amount of "hot money" entered China during the period when the economic situation was good and the expectation of RMB appreciation was strong, and "dormant" in financial markets such as stock market and property market. Under the background of the improvement of American economy, the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the appreciation of the US dollar, we should pay special attention to the large-scale rapid withdrawal of these "hot money" caused by certain events (such as the early interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tension), which will lead to a rapid decline in stock prices and property prices, and the RMB will face greater depreciation pressure, even posing a threat to the stability of the domestic financial system. In history, there are many examples of countries whose stock market and property market bubbles burst and their currencies depreciated sharply during the strong dollar period, such as Mexico 1994, Thailand and the Philippines 1997, Russia 1998 and Brazil 1999. Historical experience is worth learning.

The RMB exchange rate fluctuates in both directions, with periodic appreciation and depreciation alternating.

It may become the norm.

It should be noted that the depreciation pressure of the RMB is mainly on the US dollar, and the RMB even has appreciation pressure on other major currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen. It is even less likely that the effective exchange rate of RMB will depreciate sharply. Taking 20 14 as an example, the US dollar index has been rising steadily since July, from around 80 to around 95 at present, with an increase of nearly 20%. The effective exchange rate of RMB also changed the depreciation trend in the first half of the year and began to appreciate in August. 20 14 and 14 February, the real effective exchange rate index of RMB continued to rise 1.23%, and the nominal effective exchange rate index continued to rise by 0.75%, both of which rose for the seventh consecutive month and set a new record.

Under the influence of both foreign and domestic factors, cross-border capital flows will alternate between phased outflow and inflow in 20 15 years, and the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will become more frequent, which may become the norm.

On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to increase the term spread and then affect the narrowing of domestic and foreign spreads, which may lead to staged capital outflows and bring pressure on RMB depreciation. However, the ultra-loose monetary policies in the euro zone and Japan may have hedging effects in a specific period.

On the other hand, in the second half of the year, the domestic real estate market may stop falling and stabilize, the stock market will gradually pick up, and the financial and capital market reforms will release vitality. It is not excluded that international capital may flow in stages, thus forming appreciation pressure. In addition, the central bank basically withdrew from the normal foreign exchange intervention, gradually got rid of the mode of relying on foreign exchange to supply the base currency, and allowed the exchange rate to fluctuate in two directions according to market supply and demand, which not only effectively prevented cross-border arbitrage and arbitrage, but also improved the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy.

Policies should strike a balance between these four goals.

Although there are positive effects, the negative effects of a strong dollar on China's economy should be paid more attention. Especially considering that China's economy is in the downward cycle, PPI continues to grow negatively, and the internal effective demand is insufficient, the strengthening of the US dollar makes China's macro-control face a dilemma. It is necessary to lower the benchmark interest rate in order to alleviate the pressure of financing cost of enterprises and promote the decline of financing cost, but the interest rate cut may further narrow the spread between China and the United States and increase the pressure of capital outflow, thus increasing the market risk and depreciation pressure.

In order to maintain China's export competitiveness, it is necessary for the RMB to depreciate moderately against the US dollar. However, depreciation is not conducive to foreign investment and RMB internationalization, and excessive depreciation runs counter to the requirements of the new normal. Therefore, it is necessary to seek a balance between the four goals of steady growth, structural adjustment, risk control and internationalization in policy choice. In this complicated situation, it is suggested to adopt the general strategy of allowing RMB to depreciate moderately against the US dollar and keeping the effective exchange rate of RMB basically stable. Of course, this is only the second best choice. At the same time, actively promote the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism, further enhance exchange rate flexibility, reduce dependence on the US dollar, and supplement it with appropriate monetary and financial policies.

First, the monetary policy remains neutral and loose, the benchmark interest rate is carefully lowered, and the reserve ratio is moderately lowered. In the future, monetary policy should maintain a balance between steady growth, risk prevention and deleveraging. Considering the downward pressure on the economy in the short term, monetary policy should remain neutral and loose. In the case of tight credit supply and demand, the impact of interest rate cuts on new loan interest rates is limited. Moreover, under the background that the United States has entered the interest rate hike cycle, China's interest rate cut may aggravate the capital outflow and trigger financial risks in the open system.

In view of this, it is suggested that we should be cautious in further adjusting the benchmark interest rate of deposits and loans when the interest rate has been adjusted recently, and it is not recommended to reduce the financing cost by cutting interest rates sharply. Although the deposit reserve also has a relaxing effect, it has a direct impact on the liabilities of the banking system, but its impact on the currency is relatively indirect. From the perspective of coping with the sharp reduction of foreign exchange holdings and improving the effectiveness of the base currency, we can consider appropriately reducing the deposit reserve ratio, while continuing to use innovative tools such as SLF and MLF. This can not only effectively alleviate the pressure of liquidity contraction caused by capital outflow, but also improve the credit capacity of banks and lower market interest rates and financing costs by maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity.

The second is to further promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, reduce dependence on the US dollar, and keep the effective exchange rate basically stable. It is suggested that the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate should be further expanded from the current 2% to 3-4% by taking the opportunity of the slowdown of RMB appreciation pressure under a strong dollar, and the adjustment function of the central parity rate should be made good use of. Under the pattern that RMB rises and falls alternately in stages, the enhancement of exchange rate flexibility is conducive to reducing the arbitrage of large-scale entry and exit of "hot money" and reducing the adverse impact of frequent entry and exit of cross-border funds on the domestic financial system. The exchange rate mechanism can be an effective means to regulate capital flows.

At the same time, it is suggested to increase the proportion of other major currencies in the currency basket, reduce the proportion of US dollars and reduce dependence on US dollars. After reducing the weight of the dollar in the basket, the RMB should be allowed to depreciate moderately against the dollar to reduce the adverse impact on exports. While depreciating moderately against the US dollar, the effective exchange rate of RMB should remain basically stable, especially the exchange rate of RMB against major foreign investors such as Asia, Africa and Latin America should remain stable or appreciate slightly, providing a good exchange rate environment for RMB internationalization and foreign investment.

Third, actively and steadily implement the opening of capital and financial accounts, and should not be rushed. With the strength of the US dollar, the downward trend of the domestic economy and the accumulation of risks in shadow banking and financing platforms, China may face greater capital outflow pressure at a certain stage. In 20 13, China's capital and financial account surplus was still as high as $326.2 billion, but it quickly turned into a deficit of $96 billion in 20 14. In this new situation, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of prudence, design relevant institutional arrangements for the opening of capital and financial accounts, and especially prudently and steadily liberalize the inflow and outflow restrictions of securities investment in financial accounts.

Attention should be paid to the design and arrangement of relevant management systems in the banking system, because cross-border capital flows and currency exchange activities are basically carried out through banks. Adhere to continuous and close tracking and monitoring of cross-border capital flows and make emergency plans to deal with large-scale capital outflows. From the perspective of ensuring sufficient intervention capacity, China should still have much higher and more abundant foreign exchange reserves than usual in the future.

The fourth is to further expand RMB foreign direct investment and capital output. Under the background of the strong US dollar and the weak RMB against the US dollar, the internationalization of RMB in the future can not be settled only by trade, but should play a good role in promoting foreign direct investment and capital output. When the global industrial chain with domestic multinational enterprises as the core is established, domestic enterprises have mastered the production chain from resource collection to subcontracting of intermediate products to final product sales, and the international acceptance of RMB will naturally increase.

In key areas, we should focus on infrastructure investment, resource exploitation and strategic emerging industries; In terms of specific strategies, we should actively promote joint ventures and mergers and acquisitions, actively carry out cross-border RMB loans, overseas RMB bond financing, equity financing, etc., support local enterprises to "go global", and limit these financing to foreign investment when necessary.

Fifth, vigorously develop the foreign exchange derivatives market and reduce the hedging cost of enterprises. In the future, it will be normal for RMB exchange rate to fluctuate in both directions and alternate between appreciation and depreciation, which means that it is very important for enterprises to effectively deal with exchange rate risks. For a long time, Chinese enterprises have been accustomed to the unilateral appreciation and small fluctuations of RMB, and have largely lacked the awareness of exchange rate risk. However, some large enterprises use derivatives in offshore markets mostly for arbitrage out of gambling psychology, so they do not make full use of tools to avoid foreign exchange risks. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the two-way fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate, the exchange rate risk faced by enterprises should not be underestimated.

At present, the development of China's derivatives market is relatively backward, the market capacity is small, the product types are relatively single, and the hedging cost of enterprises is high, which is not conducive to enterprises to cope with risks. Therefore, we should accelerate the development of relatively basic and mature derivatives such as exchange rate futures and options in the global market and make appropriate innovations. Vigorously develop the exchange rate derivatives market, provide diversified exchange rate hedging tools for enterprises, and reduce the hedging cost of enterprises.